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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended largely steady against the dollar Tuesday as some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which offset the impact of persistent dollar purchases by importers, dealers said. "The RBI held the rupee around 89.26 (a dollar) level very aggressively," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Otherwise importer buying (of dollars) was strong enough to take the rupee to a new record low."

 

After moving in a range of 23 paise during the day, the rupee ended at 89.2200 a dollar, broadly unchanged from 89.2300 on Monday. Earlier in the day, the Indian unit had touched a high of 89.0375. Other Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.6% against the dollar, with the South Korean won gaining the most. 

 

The rupee started the day sharply higher against the dollar as some state-owned banks sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, likely on behalf of the RBI. Some dealers speculated that banks likely sold dollars on behalf of a big corporate. 

 

The central bank had earlier actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from breaching 88.80 a dollar, until it was let go on Friday. According to the RBI bulletin, the apex bank sold a net $7.91 billion in the foreign exchange market in September to curb the fall of the rupee. 

 

However, the rupee could not hold on to its gains for too long as banks persistently bought dollars for importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "Buying (of dollars) on dips (in dollar-rupee) is what the market is working with now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Importers are there, but they are also a bit cautious in buying at above 89 (a dollar)."

 

However, as soon as the Indian unit came under downward pressure, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, dealers said. The RBI likely sold the greeback around 89.26 a dollar, they said. The central bank likely sold around $500 million in the spot market on Tuesday, some dealers said.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index was steady even though expectation of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December continued to strengthen in the market after comments by various Fed officials hinted towards the same. Fed Governor Christopher Waller Monday said that a rate cut in December was necessary due to a weak jobs market, but another rate cut in January was uncertain. 

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.04, lower than 100.18 Monday and 100.20 Friday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 81% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. On Tuesday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.3% lower and the Sensex ended 0.4% lower. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2200	89.0700	89.0375	89.2675	89.2300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	197.50	197.00	198.00	197.00	198.10

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended broadly steady amid lacklustre volume as market participants await the US Federal Reserve's rate decision at its December meeting, dealers said. The US Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting outcome is due on Dec. 10. 

 

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's comments Monday increased expectation of a domestic rate cut next week. In an interview with Hindi business news channel Zee Business Monday, Malhotra said none of the economic data released after the last policy review had reduced the scope for further rate cuts in India.

 

Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the appreciation in the rupee earlier in the day, which supported premiums, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.20%, broadly steady against the previous close of 2.21%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 197.50 paise, against Monday's close of 198.10 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and Asian currencies, dealers said. Most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market to protect the rupee from falling to a lifetime low and testing the psychologically-crucial 90-per-dollar mark. 

 

Market participants will also continue to watch developments related to the India-US trade deal talks. "There have been no signs of the trade deal, which could allow rupee to appreciate towards 88 levels," Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said in a note. "In the meanwhile, we expect rupee to stay in the level of 88.80 to 89.50."

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep downward pressure on the local currency intact. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 89.00 to 89.40 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 89.00 per dollar and support at 89.50.

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India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling up before UK annual budget; euro flat

 

	AT 1435 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3124	1.3129	1.3095	1.3103
EUR/USD	1.1527	1.1531	1.1512	1.1520
NZD/USD	0.5599	0.5621	0.5593	0.5607
AUD/USD	0.6457	0.6469	0.6449	0.6464
USD/JPY	156.6020	156.9820	156.5260	156.9030
USD/CAD	1.4117	1.4124	1.4106	1.4105
EUR/JPY	180.5110	180.8854	180.3980	180.7490
CHF/USD	1.2357	1.2378	1.2353	1.2367
EUR/CHF	0.9326	0.9328	0.9312	0.9311

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling rose 0.1% against the dollar ahead of the announcement of the UK's much awaited annual budget, due Wednesday. The UK's finance minister, Rachel Reeves, is expected to announce a round of hefty tax increases in the upcoming budget. 

 

The euro traded steady against the greenback. Data released Tuesday showed that Germany's economy, the largest in Europe, stagnated in the September quarter, compared with the June quarter. Germany's economy stagnated mainly due to a fall in exports, an aftereffect of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Germany.

 

The dollar index traded broadly steady against the dollar even after comments by various Fed officials strengthened the case for a rate cut by Federal Reserve in December. Fed Governor Christopher Waller Monday said that a rate cut in December was necessary due to a weak job market, but another rate cut in January was uncertain. 

 

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has now given her support to a rate cut in December. She told The Wall Street Journal that she now backed a reduction in the benchmark interest rate, according to a report by Reuters. "On the labour market, I don't feel as confident we can get ahead of it," she said in an interview on Monday, according to Reuters. "It's vulnerable enough now that the risk is it'll have a nonlinear change."  

 

At 1435 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.16, slightly lower than 100.18 Monday and 100.20 Friday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 81% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week.

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the greenback and the New Zealand dollar was down 0.3% ahead of an expected rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday. The Japanese yen rose 0.2% against the dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Premium steady amid dull volume; importer fwd dlr buys support

 

	AT 1335 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2375	89.0700	89.0375	89.2400	89.2300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	197.50	197.00	198.00	197.00	198.10

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady amid lacklustre volume as market participants await the US Federal Reserve's rate decision in its December meeting, dealers said. The US Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting outcome is due on Dec. 10. 

 

Recent comments by various US Fed officials have increased hopes of a rate cut by the US central bank next month. Fed Governor Christopher Waller Monday said that a rate cut in December was necessary due to a weak jobs market but another rate cut in January was uncertain. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has now given her support to a rate cut in December. She told The Wall Street Journal that she now backed a reduction in the benchmark interest rate. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 81% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. 

 

Back home, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra's comments Monday increased expectations of a domestic rate cut next week. In an interview with Hindi business news channel Zee Business Monday, Malhotra said none of the economic data released after the last policy review had reduced the scope for further rate cuts in India.

 

Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the appreciation in the rupee earlier in the day, which supported premiums, dealers said. "It is a very quiet day," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "There was slight inclination towards paying (of forwards) by importers." The rupee rose to 89.0375 a dollar in early trade, before paring most of its gains. 

 

At 1335 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.20%, broadly steady against the previous close of 2.21%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 197.00 paise, against Friday's close of 198.10 paise. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee:Trims most gains as importers buy dlrs; RBI dlr sales speculated

 

	AT 1320 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2175	89.0800	89.0375	89.2400	89.2300

 

India Rupee: Trims all gains as importers buy dlrs; RBI dlr sales speculated

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its early gains against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars for importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The Indian unit touched a high of 89.0375 a dollar earlier in the day. 

 

"The rupee had almost touched 89.00. We saw huge importer demand (for dollars) that time," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "The rupee was pushed to 89.20 (a dollar) level after that, and has hovered around the same level since then." The Indian unit had hit a lifetime low of 89.4950 a dollar on Friday.

 

Earlier in the day, the rupee rose as some state-owned banks sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, to support the rupee. Some dealers speculated that the central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market too, which further supported the Indian unit.

 

Meanwhile, comments by various US Federal Reserve officials increased hopes of a rate cut by the Fed at its December meeting, which also boosted the Indian currency, dealers said. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 81% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 1230 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.23, slightly higher than 100.18 Monday and 100.20 Friday.

 

The Indian unit was also supported by a rise in its other Asian peers. The South Korean won was the best performer with a rise of 0.3%. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.80 and 89.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.80 a dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 25

 

MUMBAI – At 1104 IST, the rupee was at 89.1800 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.0700 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.2300 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	89.50	89.30	89.10	89.00
Private-sector bank	89.45	89.35	89.25	89.15
Brokerage firm	89.30	89.20	89.05	88.80
Brokerage firm	89.70	89.60	89.01	88.70

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Rises as RBI sells dollars in offshore NDF mkt to support rupee

 

	AT 0953 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.1550	89.0800	89.0375	89.1600	89.2300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar as some state-owned banks sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, to prevent the rupee from approaching its lifetime low of 89.4950 a dollar hit on Friday. "The RBI (is) trying to limit the damage before the market opens," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "As after market opens, buyers (of dollars) will swoop in and the rupee will head towards depreciation."

 

Some dealers speculate that some public sector banks sold dollars in the domestic spot market too, likely for the central bank. The central bank has actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from breaching 88.80 a dollar, until it was let go on Friday. According to the RBI bulletin, the apex bank sold a net $7.91 billion in the foreign exchange market in September to curb the fall of the rupee. The number was likely higher in October when the domestic unit came under increased pressure, dealers said.

 

Meanwhile, comments by various US Federal Reserve officials increased hopes of a rate cut by the Fed in its December meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller Monday said that a rate cut in December was necessary due to a weak job market, but another rate cut in January was uncertain. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has now given her support to a rate cut in December. She told The Wall Street Journal that she now backed a reduction in the benchmark interest rate.

 

The Indian unit was also supported by a rise in its other Asian peers, which rose due to increased Fed rate cut bets. The South Korean won was the best performer with a rise of 0.3%. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.10 and 89.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.80 a dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Up as Fed officials' comments boost Fed rate cut bets

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose Tuesday as expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve rose among market participants after comments by various Fed officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller Monday said that a rate cut in December was necessary due to a weak job market, but another rate cut in January was uncertain. 

 

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who was in a dilemma about another rate cut earlier, has now given her support to a rate cut in December. She told The Wall Street Journal that she now backed a reduction in the benchmark interest rate, according to a report by Reuters. "On the labor market, I don't feel as confident we can get ahead of it," she said in an interview on Monday, according to Reuters. "It's vulnerable enough now that the risk is it'll have a nonlinear change."  

 

At 0840 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.15, slightly lower than 100.18 Monday and 100.20 Friday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 81% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.3% against the dollar ahead of the Bank of Korea's policy meeting on Thursday. In it monetary policy meeting, the central bank is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2.50% due to a volatile currency and an overvalued housing market, according to economists polled by Reuters. The bank is expected to cut the key policy rate early next year, the economists said. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2?ch against the greenback, and the Chinese yuan and the Thai baht were 0.1% higher. The Philippine peso and the Taiwanese dollar traded steady against the greenback.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 25

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	89.30	89.05
Private-sector bank	89.25	88.90
Brokerage firm	89.31	89.01
Brokerage firm	89.30	89.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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