More Stories

Informist, Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

 

By Pratiksha and Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee logged its worst day in over six months and ended at a record closing low against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India let go of its strong support at 88.80 a dollar, dealers said. The Indian unit was broadly weighed down by fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month and uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, they said. 

 

"It came as a surprise to everyone," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Once the rupee broke 88.80 (a dollar), it was all panic buying (of dollars). Stop losses were triggered left and right."

 

The rupee settled at 89.4800 Friday, 0.9% lower than its previous close of 88.7050. The rupee hit a lifetime low of 89.4950 a dollar during the day. The Indian currency was the worst performer amongst its peers, which moved on a mixed note against the dollar Friday. 

 

After starting the day on a steady note, notably, the Indian unit had got a boost due to the central bank's likely dollar sales around 88.70 a dollar, dealers said. The Indian unit rose to 88.5900 earlier in the day. 

 

However, the gains were short-lived as importers rushed to buy dollars, which pushed the Indian unit below 88.70, dealers said. The buying pressure on the Indian unit has persisted amid looming uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, they said. While positive statements on the trade deal have come out from both India and the US in recent times, the deal is yet to be announced. "There is still no clarity on when the trade deal will happen, which has led to sentiment being weak for the rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Investors also scaled back bets on a US Fed rate cut next month, owing to recent comments by Fed officials and mixed labour market data, which also exerted pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, down from 62.4% a week ago. 

 

Most market participants had expected the central bank to continue protecting the key 88.80 mark, a level it has steadfastly defended since late September. However, in the later part of the day, the rupee fell past the key level, triggering stop losses on short dollar bets at multiple dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. 

 

"Dollar-rupee broke decisively above 89.00, a level many importers and dealers believed the RBI would defend," Anindya Banerjee, head of research – currency, commodity and interest rate derivatives at Kotak Securities, said in a note. "Once this level was broken, aggressive short-covering kicked in across onshore and offshore markets, triggering stops and amplifying the upside move." 

 

Once the rupee fell past 88.80 a dollar, it immediately broke the psychologically crucial 89-per-dollar level and hit a lifetime low of 89.4950. The central bank likely stepped in by selling dollars around 89.49, dealers said. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. On Friday, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended 0.5?ch lower. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.4800	88.6750	88.5900	89.4950	88.7050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	193.44	194.17	194.17	192.02	192.67

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended largely steady Friday as traders assessed mixed signals from the US non-farm payrolls data for September for the Fed's interest rate trajectory, dealers said. Data, released Thursday, showed that unemployment rose in the US, but non-farm payrolls increased by a much higher-than-expected number, which confused market participants.

 

The US jobless rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August, but non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September. The rise in non-farm payrolls was more than double the estimate of economists polled by Reuters, who had forecast that 50,000 jobs would be added. To add to the confusion, the August payroll data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, which shows the labour market is softening. 

 

Meanwhile, amid the rupee's slump, some exporters sold dollars for forward delivery, which weighed on forward premiums, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.16%, against the previous close of 2.17%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 193.44 paise, against Thursday's close of 192.67 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. "For the next few days, I think the rupee will hover 20-30 paise around 89.50, until any decision by the Fed affects the market," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Market participants will await the RBI's intervention strategy in the currency market after the unexpected slump in the rupee Friday. "It really does depend only on RBI as to where it wants to take the market from here. These are uncharted territories for the rupee," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. 

 

Traders will also continue to watch for developments related to the India-US trade talks. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, after the sudden sharp depreciation on Friday. 

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 89.30 to 89.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 89.50 per dollar.

---

India Rupee: Slumps past 89/$1, at record low as RBI missing in action

 

	AT 1515 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.4600	88.6750	88.5900	89.4950	88.7050

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee slumped past the psychologically-crucial 89-per-dollar mark to hit a record low of 89.4950 dollar as the Reserve Bank of India let go of its strong defence of the 88.80 level, dealers said.

 

"RBI initially tried protecting it, but once they let it go, there was no stopping for rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The RBI has aggressively intervened in the currency market since late September to protect the 88.80-a-dollar level.

 

The rupee was also weighed down by dollar purchases on behalf of importers, which led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets at 88.80 a dollar, they said.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - World FX: Yen jumps on BoJ intervention hope; pound sterling up

 

	AT 1435 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3093	1.3098	1.3066	1.3072
EUR/USD	1.1548	1.1553	1.1524	1.1528
NZD/USD	0.5603	0.5606	0.5582	0.5581
AUD/USD	0.6444	0.6458	0.6434	0.6440
USD/JPY	156.6990	157.5400	156.5700	157.4450
USD/CAD	1.4089	1.4107	1.4085	1.4097
EUR/JPY	180.9710	181.8400	180.7280	181.5200
CHF/USD	1.2433	1.2445	1.2401	1.2405
EUR/CHF	0.9287	0.9296	0.9276	0.9290

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen surged 0.6% against the greenback after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama Friday said the Bank of Japan may intervene to deal with excessively volatile and speculative moves in the currency. "We are alarmed by recent one-sided, sharp moves in the currency market," Katayama told a news conference, when asked about recent declines in the yen.

 

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Friday said the central bank must be mindful of the chance the weak yen could affect underlying inflation by pushing up import costs and broader prices. The Bank of Japan said it will continue to raise interest rates if it becomes convinced that underlying inflation, or price moves stripping away one-off factors, will stabilise around its 2% inflation target.

 

The pound sterling rose 0.2% against the greenback even after data Friday showed UK's consumer confidence dipped in November but remained in its narrow range of the past six months. The GfK consumer confidence barometer, dropped to -19 this month, from -17 last month and slightly below the -18 forecast in a Reuters poll. 

 

UK manufacturers reported the sharpest fall in output since August 2020 during the three months to the end of November, citing uncertainty ahead of next week's annual budget. The industrial output balance for the three months to November fell to -30 from -16 in the three months to October, while the outlook for the next three months fell to -30 from -19.

 

Market participants assessed the mixed signals from the US non-farm payrolls data for September. Data late Thursday showed unemployment rose in the US but non-farm payrolls increased much higher than expected, which led to confusion among market participants about the US Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. The jobless rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August but non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September. The rise in non-farm payrolls was more than double the estimate of economists polled by Reuters, who had forecast 50,000 jobs would be added after the gain of 22,000 in August. To add to the confusion, the August payrolls data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, which shows a softening labour market. 

 

At 1435 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.08, lower from 100.21 Thursday and from 100.12 Wednesday. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 35.6% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, down from 62.4% a week ago but slightly higher than 32?fore the release of the non-farm payrolls data.

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback, while the New Zealand dollar and euro rose 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Friday that the European Union can counter the impact of US trade tariffs if it eases some of its internal barriers. "Our analysis shows that if all EU countries were merely to lower their barriers to the same level as that of the Netherlands, internal barriers could fall by about 8 percentage points for goods and 9 percentage points for services," she said.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Premium steady as traders assess mixed US non-farm payroll data

 

	AT 1310 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6800	88.6750	88.5900	88.7050	88.7050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	192.73	194.17	194.17	192.02	192.67

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was largely steady Friday as traders assessed mixed signals from the US non-farm payrolls data for September, released late Thursday, for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, dealers said. Data showed unemployment rose in the US but non-farm payrolls increased by a much higher than expected number, which confused market participants.

 

"Premium will be affected only after any strong cues on Fed's rate cut decision," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Labour data was expected to do so but that confused the market even more."

 

The US jobless rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August but non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September. The rise in non-farm payrolls was more than double the estimate of economists polled by Reuters, who had forecast that 50,000 jobs would be added after the gain of 22,000 in August. To add to the confusion, the August payrolls data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, which shows the labour market is softening. 

 

US Treasury yields fell Thursday amid mixed employment data as investors assessed the probability of further easing by the US Fed before the year end. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.10% Thursday from 4.13% Wednesday.

 

At 1310 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.17%, unchanged from the previous close of 2.17%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 192.73 paise, against Wednesday's close of 192.67 paise.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Erases most gains as importers buy dlrs; RBI dlr sales support

 

	AT 1305 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6775	88.6750	88.5900	88.7050	88.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its earlier gains against the dollar Friday as banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. "Nat (nationalised) banks pushed the rupee back to the 88.50 range," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It triggered strong outflows from importers, which dragged the rupee again." The Indian unit touched a high of 88.5900 a dollar earlier in the day. 

 

The rupee rose against the dollar as some public sector banks sold the greenback around 88.70 a dollar, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The RBI has continuously intervened in the currency market since late September, aggressively protecting the 88.80 a dollar level. The Indian currency had fallen to its lifetime low of 88.8025 a dollar level on Sept. 30. "RBI will continue to hold 88.80. We will need a huge trigger for this level to break," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Meanwhile, traders await clear direction about the US Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions after US non-farm payrolls data failed to provide any clear indication. According to the data Thursday, September non-farm payrolls in the US beat market expectations by a wide margin, but at the same time, unemployment in the US rose marginally. The jobless rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August, but non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September, sharply higher than a 50,000 rise estimated in a Reuters poll of economists.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.40.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 21

 

MUMBAI – At 1230 IST, the rupee was at 88.6675 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6750 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.7050 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.80	88.75	88.65	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.75	88.65	88.50	88.40
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.40	88.20
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.40	88.00

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Lacks direction as US labour market data mixed

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed on Friday as market participants tried to gauge what the Federal Reserve would do after US employment data failed to provide any clear signal on the direction of the economy. Traders in Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 35.6% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December meeting, down from 62.4% a week ago but slightly higher than 32?fore the release of the non-farm payroll data.

 

US employment data on Thursday confused market participants as it failed to provide any clear indication of how the economy was faring. The jobless rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August, but non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September. The rise in unemployment data was marginal, but the non-farm payrolls data surprised the market as it outperformed market consensus of a 50,000 rise in payrolls. The August payrolls were revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs against a gain of 22,000 jobs posted earlier, highlighting a weakening labour market. 

 

At 0950 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.16, slightly lower than 100.21 Thursday but steady from 100.12 Wednesday. 

 

The Taiwanese dollar fell 0.3% against the dollar and the Thai baht fell 0.1%. On the other hand, the South Korean won, the Philippine peso, and the Indonesian rupiah rose 0.2% against the greenback, while the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit saw a rise of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Rises on RBI's active dollar sales; Fed rate cut cues awaited

 

	AT 0935 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6450	88.6750	88.6300	88.7050	88.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee surged against the dollar Friday as some public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The RBI has continuously intervened in the market for the past few weeks, aggressively protecting the 88.80 a dollar level of the rupee. The rupee had fallen to its lifetime low of 88.8025 a dollar level on Sept. 30.

 

Traders await clear direction about the US Federal Reserve's future rate cuts after US non-farm payrolls data failed to provide any clear indication on this, dealers said. "Only any clarity on any of the two events – trade deal and rate cut – will cause a heavy movement in the market now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Otherwise, it is the same range-bound market."

 

According to the data Thursday, September non-farm payrolls in the US beat market expectations by a wide margin, but at the same time unemployment in the US rose marginally. The jobless rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August, but non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September, sharply higher than a 50,000 rise estimated in a Reuters poll of economists.

 

Banks also bought dollars for importers who were wary of a further fall in the rupee, which limited the gains of the domestic currency, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.30.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 21

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.75	88.60
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.60
Brokerage firm	88.75	88.55
Brokerage firm	88.78	88.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.