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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of all base metals on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the London Metal Exchange fell Tuesday because of fading expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December and weak economic data from China. Market sentiment remained cautious as traders await a backlog of key US economic data, which was delayed due to the shutdown of the government.

US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Monday said policymakers should be cautious in cutting rates further despite potential downside risks to job growth. He acknowledged monetary policy was still restrictive but said the rate cuts so far had moved it closer to neutral. On the other hand, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a rate cut in December was justified due to concerns about the labour market. According to the CME FedWatch tool, only 46.6% traders expect a 25-bps rate cut by the Fed in December, lower than 67% a week ago and around 94% a month ago.

"Broader geopolitical tensions, highlighted by the escalating China–Japan diplomatic rift, further weighed on risk appetite," Kotak Securities said in a report.

China's industrial output and retail sales in October grew at their slowest pace in more than a year, while home prices saw their steepest monthly drop since late 2024, and new loan issuance weakened amid a fragile property sector. The country's value-added industrial output expanded 4.9% on year last month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. In the first 10 months of this year, China's industrial output increased by 6.1% on year.

Market participants are now waiting for a slew of economic data from the US this week, which was delayed due to the shutdown of the government. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday said it would release September jobs data Thursday.

At 1824 IST, on the MCX, the November futures contract of:
-–ALUMINIUM was at INR 264.10 a kg, down 1.0%
–-COPPER was at INR 993.5035 a kg, down 0.9%
–-LEAD was at INR 180.95 a kg, down 0.7%
–-ZINC was at INR 299.60 a kg, down 0.8%

The December futures contract of NICKEL was at INR 1,302.00 a kg, down 0.3%

Trading levels for the day on the MCX:
--Aluminium contract seen at INR 261.55-INR 268.45
--Copper contract seen at INR 985.00-INR 1,010.00
--Lead contract seen at INR 180.20-INR 183.20
--Zinc contract seen at INR 296.50-INR 304.50
--Nickel contract seen at INR 1,290.00-INR 1,320.00

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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