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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

 

By Reshma Ravi

 

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold Tuesday fell to more than a one-week low on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX, due to reduced expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. The absence of key US economic data over the past six weeks due to the longest US government shutdown in history, combined with cautious comments from Fed officials, also weighed on gold prices.

 

At 1617 IST, the most-active December GOLD contract on the MCX was down 0.8% at INR 121,890 per 10 grams, after slipping to an over one-week low of INR 120,762 per 10 grams. At 1617 IST, prices of the precious metal were down 0.8% on the COMEX at $4,040.9 per ounce, after falling to an over one-week low of $3,997.4 per ounce.

 

"Last week, lawmakers reached an agreement to end what had become the longest-ever US government shutdown, during which an absence of official economic data helped dampen expectations for another rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December," SMC Global Securities said in a report. Market participants hoped resumption of the flow of US economic data would give clarity on a potential December rate cut, but those expectations faded as more Fed officials signalled caution.

 

On Monday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the US central bank needs to "proceed slowly" with any further rate cuts, adding that policymakers should be cautious about further rate cuts despite potential downside risk to jobs growth. "Hawkish stance from Fed officials continued to curb bullion's upside," Kotak Securities said in a report.

 

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, 46.4% of traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, down from 66.9% a week ago. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-interest-yielding precious metals.

 

Market participants are waiting for delayed US data releases this week. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, US non-farm payroll data, and unemployment claims for September are due Thursday. US flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index data is due Friday.  

 

SILVER contracts fell on the MCX and on the COMEX. At 1619 IST, the most-active December silver contract on the MCX was down 0.8% at INR 154,000 per kg. The same-month contract on COMEX was down 0.9% at $50.25 per ounce.

 

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 120,500–INR 123,500 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,980.0–$4,080.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 151,500-INR 155,500 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $49.50-$50.80 an ounce

End

 

US$1 = INR 88.61

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Nishant Maher

 

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