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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

MUMBAI – India's gold imports in October are likely to have doubled on year to 113 tonnes, according to analysts at Commerzbank. However, the country's gold imports in the first ten months of the year are likely to be 20% lower than in the same period last year, due to weaker imports in the previous months, the German bank said in a report on Tuesday.

India imported gold worth a record $14.72 billion in October, up nearly three times on year, the report said, citing data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. "In value terms, gold imports after ten months are actually 17% higher than in the previous year. Gold buyers in India were thus only partially deterred by the higher price level," Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in the report.

Gold prices rallied strongly this year, rising over 40% from the start of the year, driven by heightened safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions. Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September had also supported sentiment.

At 1633 IST, the most-active December gold contract on COMEX was 0.7% lower at $4,046.0 per ounce. The same month contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India was at INR 121,960 per 10 grams, down 0.8% from the previous close. Headwinds are coming for gold primarily from declining expectations of a Fed rate cut, Fritsch said.

A 25-basis-point interest rate cut is not even priced in at 50% for the next Fed meeting in December, according to Fed Funds Futures, nor is it fully priced in for the following Fed meeting at the end of January. "This is probably due to uncertainty, as it is unlikely that all the missing data will be available by the meeting in three weeks' time. Some Fed officials had therefore recently argued in favour of waiting until there was more clarity regarding the situation on the labour market and the trend in inflation," Fritsch said. However, Fed Governor Waller has spoken out in favour of an interest rate cut in December.

"As we also continue to expect an interest rate cut, the gold price has upside potential," Fritsch said. End

US$1 = INR 88.60

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Saji George Titus

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