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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

By Rati Chaphekar

MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars for importers, which offset the impact of dollar sales by foreign banks on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. "The rupee was supported by some selling (of dollars) by foreign banks," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But importers were there to take advantage of the lower (dollar-rupee) levels."

After trading in a range of 11 paise during the day, the rupee ended the day at 88.6050 a dollar, steady against 88.6300 Monday. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the worst hit.

The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar since the start of the day as market participants expected the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales to keep the Indian currency above 88.80. The central bank has been intervening actively in the currency market since late September to keep the rupee from falling past the 88.80-per-dollar mark. The rupee had hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

A slight rise in the dollar index Monday weighed on the local unit, dealers said. The dollar index rose Monday as the expectation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its December meeting faded. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 42.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.55, steady against 99.53 Monday but up from 99.27 Friday.

Market participants now await the release of US data that was delayed during the federal government shutdown, dealers said. Traders will closely watch the September non-farm payrolls report due Thursday, a key metric that the Fed tracks. Recent private-sector data have indicated weakness in the US economy, because of which investors have trimmed expectation of a rate cut by the Fed, betting that gaps in economic data will delay or even derail further easing of US monetary policy.

In the later part of the day's session, the rupee rose slightly as foreign banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to invest in domestic equities. The rupee touched a high of 88.5800 a dollar during the day. So far this month, FPIs have infused $327.18 million into Indian markets on a net basis. "We are seeing some inflows here and there, but the rupee is not moving much," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "There is no sustainable appreciation in the rupee; 88.50 is also not breaking."

However, gains in the rupee were capped as banks persistently bought dollars for importers who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee level. The slight uptick of the rupee was also supported by a slight fall in the dollar index during European trade, they said. Dealers said the RBI was likely not present in the currency market through dollar sales around the current dollar-rupee levels Tuesday.

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Tuesday, the Sensex ended 0.3% lower and the Nifty 50 ended 0.4% lower.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a near-three-week high as state-owned banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the recent appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. The Indian currency gained 0.1% against the dollar Monday and was broadly steady Tuesday.

"Forward premiums are in a range as one-month premiums move as per liquidity while one-year there is some paying due to lower spot (dollar-rupee)," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

A slight fall in US Treasury yields also supported forward premiums, dealers said. US Treasury yields ended slightly lower Monday as investors awaited a packed week of delayed economic data releases. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.13% Monday from 4.14% Friday.

Lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the RBI, in order to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, also supported forward premiums, dealers said. For the past few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-tenure forward delivery.

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.18%, up from the previous close of 2.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 192.90 paise, against Monday's close of 191.33 paise.

OUTLOOK

Wednesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. Most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar. "With RBI sitting above 88.70 levels and (the India-US) trade deal still not happening, rupee is boxed in a range of 88.50 to 88.80 and moving in very narrow ranges intraday," Bhansali said. 

Market participants will continue to look out for developments related to the India-US trade talks. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday said India-US relations continue to be "very important" and "strategic". "I don't see any reason to be very worried, I don't believe there is any hiatus in the relation, it continues to be very very important, very strategic for both countries," Goyal said.

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep the downward pressure on the local currency intact. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar and resistance at 88.50.

India Rupee - World FX: Yen up on finance minister's comments; dollar steady

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen rose 0.2% against the dollar as Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama Tuesday expressed concern over recent foreign exchange movements after the yen slumped to a fresh nine-month low versus the dollar. "As we have recently been seeing one-sided, rapid moves in the foreign exchange market, we have been alarmed," Katayama said. "The government will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in forex market, with a high sense of urgency," she said.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Tuesday said he told Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that the central bank was gradually raising interest rates to guide inflation smoothly towards its 2% target and to ensure the economy achieves sustainable growth. This was the first meeting between the governor and the prime minister since Takaichi took charge of her office last month.

The Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback. Australia's central bank said it could keep the cash rate steady at the current level if economic data offer a positive surprise, the minutes of its Nov. 3-4 policy meeting showed Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia board judged the current cash rate of 3.6% as being slightly restrictive but said it was possible this was no longer the case, citing the jump in housing credit to investors. However, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.1%.

The dollar index was broadly steady as market participants await the release of key economic data from the US, which was not released for more than a month due to the prolonged US government shutdown. The September non-farm payrolls report due Thursday is closely eyed as a key metric that the US Federal Reserve tracks for its interest rate decisions.

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 42.9% chance of a 25 basis-point cut at the December meeting, from 90% a month ago and over 62% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool. At 1515 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.53, unchanged from Monday but up from 99.27 Friday. The pound sterling and euro rose 0.1% against the greenback, while the Swiss franc rose 0.2%.  (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Premium up as importers buy forward dollars, US yields tad down

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Tuesday as state-owned banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the recent slight appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. "The spot (dollar-rupee) has moved lower. So, importers have started paying because of that," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

The rupee continued its gaining streak from Monday and rose to a high of 88.5800 a dollar on Tuesday, likely due to foreign fund inflows and a slight fall in the dollar index, dealers said. The Indian currency gained 0.1% against the dollar on Monday. 

A slight fall in US Treasury yields also supported forward premiums, dealers said. US Treasury yields ended slightly lower Monday as investors awaited a packed week of delayed economic data releases. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.13% Monday from 4.14% Friday. 

Release of US economic data was halted for over a month during the government shutdown. The slew of economic data points are set to provide investors with a clearer picture of the health of the US economy as well as insight on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December.

Lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the Reserve Bank of India, in order to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, also supported forward premiums, dealers said. Since the last few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-tenure forward delivery. "Now that RBI is not recieving in forwards much, everybody has started paying at these levels," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

At 1430 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.18%, up from the previous close of 2.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 192.90 paise, against Monday's close of 191.33 paise.  (Pratiksha)

India Rupee: In narrow band as FX inflow offset importers' dollar demand

MUMBAI – The rupee remained in a tight range against the dollar as the impact of dollar buying on behalf of importers was offset by foreign banks' greenback sales for foreign fund inflows, likely into Indian corporates, dealers said. "There was some selling (of dollars) by foreign banks, not sure how aggressive it was," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Importer buying (of dollars) was mild though." The rupee has moved in a range of just 10 paise so far on Tuesday. 

Importers bought the greenback on expectation the rupee may depreciate going ahead, owing to looming uncertainty on the India-US trade deal, dealers said. A senior commerce ministry official Monday said India and the US continue to hold negotiations over a bilateral trade agreement, and a package to address the issue of reciprocal tariffs is almost near closure.

Dealers said the Reserve Bank of India was likely not present in the currency market through dollar sales around the current dollar-rupee levels. "Nowadays, there is hardly any day like today (Tuesday), when RBI is not present," a dealer at state-owned bank said. "Though these levels are early for RBI to enter, we will definitely see some selling if rupee touches 88.7000-88.7200 (a dollar)." The central bank has been intervening actively in the currency market since late September to keep the rupee from falling past the 88.80-per-dollar mark.

Traders await the release of key economic data from the US, which was not released for more than a month due to the prolonged US government shutdown. The September non-farm payrolls report due Thursday is closely eyed as a key metric that the US Federal Reserve tracks for its interest rate decisions. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 42.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, from 90% a month ago and over 62% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.50.  (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 18

MUMBAI – At 1121 IST, the rupee was at 88.6425 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6625 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6300 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Steady as RBI dollar sales awaited; rise in dollar index weighs

MUMBAI – The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar as market participants expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales to prevent the rupee from breaching its lifetime low level. A rise in the dollar index weighed on the local unit.

"It's the same range-bound day, central bank will be sitting around 88.7500 (a dollar) as usual," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But the 88.8000 (a dollar) level should break in the next few days after some data comes from US."

The central bank has been intervening actively in the currency market since late September to keep the rupee from falling past the 88.80 per dollar mark. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

Traders await the relaase of key economic data from the US which was not released for more than a month due to prolonged US government shutdown. The September non-farm payrolls report due Thursday is closely eyed as a key metric that the US Federal Reserve tracks for its interest rate decisions.

The Indian unit was weighed down by a rise in the dollar index and a fall in other Asian currencies. At 1000 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.53, unchanged from 99.53 Monday but up from 99.27 Friday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 42.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, from 90% a month ago and over 62% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Down; dollar index rises as rate cut bets ebb

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Tuesday with the dollar index rising late Monday as hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting took a beating. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 42.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, down slightly from the previous day and against 62.4% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

US rate cut hopes have dampened due to the delayed US macroeconomic data, which was unavailable for more than a month due to the prolonged shutdown of the US government, which ended last week. At 0930 IST the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.53, unchanged from 99.53 Monday but up from 99.27 Friday. 

Market participants will closely watch the September non-farm payrolls report on Thursday, a key metric that the US Federal Reserve tracks. Despite private sector data showing labour market weakness in the US, traders remain unsure of a December rate cut, betting that gaps in economic data may delay or even derail further easing of US monetary policy.

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback after the country's economy ministry said Taiwan will tighten its export controls on quantum computers and advanced semiconductor equipment in a bid to prevent proliferation of technologies with potential military use. Taiwan has updated export controls several times since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to curb illicit military use of its high-tech goods.

Tracking the rise in dollar index, the South Korean won fell 0.4% against the dollar and the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.5%. the  Philippine peso and the Indoensian rupiah fell 0.1% against the greenback. The Chinese yuan and Thai baht traded steady.  (Rati Chaphekar) 

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 18

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

(Rati Chaphekar)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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