Weather Forecast
Brief La Nina event likely to end in coming months, says APEC Climate Center
This story was originally published at 12:53 IST on 17 November 2025
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MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert system has moved back to "inactive" from its earlier "La Nina Watch" status, suggesting that the current brief La Nina conditions are likely to end in the coming months, the Korean climate institution said in its outlook for December to May.
Chances of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions during Dec-Feb stand at 53.5%, which are expected to increase to more than 60% in Mar-May, the centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.76 degrees Celsius in December, before increasing to up to 0.47 degrees Celsius in May. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.
The centre predicts a "strongly enhanced" probability of above-normal temperatures from December to February for the Arctic Sea, northeastern Atlantic, Mediterranean, Central Africa, West Asia, Eastern Indian Ocean, East Asia and North Pacific, western tropical Pacific, southern US, Caribbean, western subtropical North Atlantics, and South Asia except for India. There is an "enhanced" probability of near normal temperatures for central tropical Indian Ocean during the same period.
A "tendency" for above-normal precipitation is expected for India from December to February, the centre said.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of India in November. Some parts of northwest and south peninsular India, however, are likely to receive below normal rainfall during the same time, the weather bureau said. Weak La Nina conditions are prevailing at present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the Indian weather department said. It has forecast La Nina conditions to persist through December to February and then transition to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation in Jan-Mar. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Nishant Maher
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