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Informist, Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimate for 2025-26 global wheat supply but lowered its estimate for rice supply in the November report of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Friday. The department has increased the estimate for wheat supply due to higher production in major exporting countries. Estimates for rice supply have been cut on lower beginning stocks and reduced production from Pakistan and Senegal. 

 

The department did not release its October report in view of the shutdown of the US government administration.

 

The report carried with it a note which stated, "Due to lapse in government funding from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, some US data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ). Changes to the US balance sheets continue to reflect all US government data available at the time of publication, but this month, in some cases, that information was limited."

 

Supplies of wheat are projected to rise 11.7 million tonnes to 1.09 billion tonnes in 2025-26 on higher production for most of the major wheat exporters, including Kazakhstan, Argentina, the European Union, the US, Australia, Russia, and Canada. The highest revision of production estimates has been in Kazakhstan, where output is seen up by 2.9 million tonnes at 118.9 million tonnes.

 

The department has also increased its estimate for global wheat consumption for 2025-26 by 4.3 million tonnes to 818.9 million tonnes, due to higher feed and residual use for Russia, Kazakhstan, and the European Union, the data showed. "World trade is 2.5 million tonnes larger at 217.2 million, primarily on greater exports for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan that are only partly offset by a reduction for Russia," the report said. The department has raised the 2025-26 global ending stocks by 7.4 million tonnes to 271.4 million tonnes. 

 

For India, the department has left its wheat production estimate unchanged at 117.51 million tonnes in 2025-26. Its forecast for domestic consumption is unchanged at 112.51 million tonnes, and the ending stock is also steady at 17 million tonnes.

 

RICE

The global outlook for rice output in 2025-26 is estimated at 729.1 million tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes mainly due to lower beginning stocks for Thailand and Senegal. A fall in production in Pakistan and Senegal has more than offset increases in output in the Philippines and Egypt, the department said. The beginning stocks for the year are seen at 188.19 million tonnes in November, down from its September estimate of 188.38 million tonnes. 

 

The department has raised its forecast for rice trade in 2025-26 by 800,000 tonnes to 62.9 million tonnes. Estimates for global rice consumption have been raised by 200,000 tonnes to a record 542.4 million tonnes due to increased consumption in Nigeria and Egypt. Ending stocks for the year are seen at 186.7 million tonnes, down 500,000 tonnes from September, mostly due to lower ending stocks in Thailand, Pakistan, and Senegal more than offsetting higher stocks in several other countries, the report said. 

 

For India, the department has kept its estimate for rice production unchanged at 151 million tonnes. Consumption is also unchanged at 127 million tonnes. It expects rice exports from the country at 25 million tonnes and ending stocks at 45.5 million tonnes for 2025-26, both unchanged from September's estimate.  End

 

Reported by Udita S. Jaiswal

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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