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Informist, Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimates of world cotton production, consumption, trade, and stocks for 2025-26 (Aug-Jul) and kept most estimates for India unchanged.

The global cotton output is now estimated at 120.08 million bales (each of 480 pounds), up from September's estimate of 117.68 million bales, the USDA said in the November edition of its monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. The global consumption has been revised to 118.88 million bales in the November edition from 118.83 million bales in its September version.

The agency did not release its October report in view of the shutdown of the US government administration. The latest estimates, too, carry a qualification: "Due to lapse in government funding from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, some US data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates). Changes to the US balance sheets continue to reflect all US government data available at the time of publication, but this month, in some cases, that information was limited."

The global cotton production is forecast higher with increases mainly in China, the US, and Brazil, the report said. Exports projections, too, have been revised upwards to 44.0 million bales from 43.7 million bales. The year-end stocks are now put at 75.93 million bales, as against 73.14 million bales earlier.

For India, the report has kept its estimate of production unchanged at 24 million bales and that of consumption intact at 25 million bales. It has also kept unchanged its projection of India's export of cotton at 1.3 million bales. However, the agency has raised its estimate of the opening stocks for the year to 10.02 million bales from the earlier figure of 9.97 million bales. Correspondingly, it has also changed the closing stocks figure to 10.52 million bales from 10.47 million bales estimated in September.

The Cotton Association of India, representing the local cotton value chain, in its first estimates for 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) season, released Tuesday, pegged the country's cotton output at 30.5 million bales (each of 170 kg), down 2.4% from a year ago. The Association has pegged India's cotton consumption in 2025-26 at 30 million bales, down from 31.4 million bales last season. Imports of cotton during the current season have been pegged at 4.5 million bales, higher than 4.1 million bales in 2024-25. The association expects cotton export from India in 2025-26 to be 1.7 million bales, down from 1.8 million bales during last year. Cotton closing stocks as of Sept. 30, 2026, are seen at 9.36 million bales.  End

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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