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Informist, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended slightly lower against the dollar Friday as importers bought dollars and risk appetite among investors took a beating due to fading hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's persistent dollar sales ensured the Indian unit does not fall to a record low, they said.  

 

"There's no movement in the market even when there are volumes on both sides," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "RBI has held on to that one level and is not ready to let it go."

 

After trading in a tight range of just 6 paise during the day, the Indian unit settled at 88.7425 a dollar, not too far from its record low of 88.8025, and slightly lower than 88.6650 on Thursday. The rupee fell just 0.1% against the dollar this week. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar Friday, with the Taiwan dollar being the worst hit.

 

The rupee started the day slightly weaker against the dollar as risk sentiment among investors soured after comments by US Fed officials reduced bets of a rate cut in the US next month, dealers said. Several Fed officials Thursday signalled caution over further easing, citing concerns about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 49.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, down from 67% likelihood of a cut earlier this week, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

 

The Indian unit was earlier on track to open at a record low against the dollar, but likely dollar sales by the RBI in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before opening of the spot market prevented the rupee from opening at all-time low, dealers said. The rupee was moving around its record low of 88.80 in the offshore NDF market, but opened at 88.7225 a dollar in the spot market. 

 

Further, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who were wary of further depreciation in the Indian unit amid the ongoing uncertianty over the India-US trade deal, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. "All the dips (in dollar/rupee) are being bought. That pressure on rupee will continue," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

However, the central bank likely extended its intervention to the spot market as well and kept the Indian unit from falling past the 88.80 per dollar mark and hitting a record low, dealers said. The RBI has been steadfastly defending the 88.80 mark since late September. 

 

The constant dollar sales, likely by the RBI, kept the Indian unit in a tight range throughout the day. Some dealers expressed displeasure over the RBI's resolute intervention in the currency market in recent times. "There is no end to this if they (RBI) want to. But I think this is not favourable for trading," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. On Friday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.1% higher each. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7425	88.7225	88.6975	88.7575	88.6650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	189.61	190.61	191.39	188.95	189.65

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased losses and ended steady as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, likely on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels, dealers said. Premium fell earlier due to a rise in US Treasury yields after comments by US Fed officials dampened expectations of a rate cut in December, dealers said. 

 

Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.11% Thursday from 4.08% Wednesday. 

 

Further, some dealers speculated the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert draining out rupee liquidity, which weighed on forward premiums. For the last few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-tenure forward delivery. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.14%, unchanged from the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 189.61 paise, against Thursday's close of 189.65 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movements in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. However, a lot will depend on the RBI's intervention strategy. Most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in both the NDF and the spot market to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar. 

 

"If RBI continued to protect 88.80, then there is no movement expected in market," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "But in case they let 88.80 break, there will be a knee-jerk reaction, probably beyond 89.00 to almost 89.50, unless they come heavily in the market."

 

Market participants will continue to closely watchout for developments related to the India-US trade talks. They also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep the downward pressure on the local unit intact.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar.

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India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling falls on report of no income tax hike

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3169	1.3202	1.3108	1.3191
EUR/USD	1.1627	1.1649	1.1621	1.1633
NZD/USD	0.5679	0.5691	0.5645	0.5653
AUD/USD	0.6530	0.6550	0.6518	0.6528
USD/JPY	154.5770	154.7400	154.3130	154.5410
USD/CAD	1.4032	1.4045	1.4019	1.4033
EUR/JPY	179.7390	179.9770	179.5500	179.7700
CHF/USD	1.2630	1.2656	1.2601	1.2611
EUR/CHF	0.9205	0.9230	0.9186	0.9223

 

NEW DELHI – The pound sterling fell 0.2% against the dollar after a media report said the UK budget later this month will not see the expected income-tax increase. UK government bond prices and stocks also fell sharply Friday.

 

The Financial Times reported Thursday, citing sources, that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have abandoned the plan to raise income tax rates, changing course just weeks before a key Nov. 26 budget. Meanwhile, data released Thursday showed the UK's economy expanded moderately in the September quarter, held back by September's cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover. The economy grew 0.1% in Jul-Sept, slowing from growth of 0.3% in the June quarter. 

 

The euro was flat against the dollar. Data Friday showed consumer prices in France rose 0.8% on year in October, below analysts' expectations. The EU-harmonised inflation figure in the bloc's second biggest economy slowed compared to the September reading of 1.1%. A Reuters poll had expected a rate of 0.9% on average.

 

The dollar index remained weak as investors awaited a backlog of US economic data following the government's reopening. The decreasing odds of a December rate cut after Fed officials' comments failed to support the dollar. Multiple Federal Reserve officials Thursday indicated inhibition over further rate cuts, citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market after two US interest rate cuts this year. 

 

At 1430 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.22, down from 99.23 Thursday and 99.47 Wednesday.

 

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.4% against the dollar after data Friday showed manufacturing activity expanded in October. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also said it will ease restrictions on mortgage loan-to-value ratios from December 1.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Fwd premium down as US yields rise on receding US rate cut bets

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7575	88.7225	88.6975	88.7575	88.6650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	188.95	190.61	191.39	188.95	189.65

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell slightly due to a rise in US Treasury yields after comments by US Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations of a rate cut in December, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

"There is recieving coming due to the US rate cut view changing suddenly," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Just few weeks back December looked like a done deal for a rate cut, and suddenly there is lot of uncertainty." The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.11% Thursday from 4.08% Wednesday. 

 

Multiple Fed officials Thursday signalled caution about further rate cuts in the US. St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem said there was limited room to ease further without becoming overly accommodative, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said interest rate policy should remain restrictive in order to put downward pressure on inflation. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 49.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, down from 67% likelihood of a cut earlier this week, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

 

Further, some dealers speculated the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert draining out rupee liquidity, which weighed on forward premiums. Since the last few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-tenure forward delivery. 

 

At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.13%, down from the previous close of 2.14%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 188.95 paise, against Thursday's close of 189.65 paise.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: In thin band; RBI's active dollar sales keep 88.80/$1 at bay

 

	AT 1215 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7350	88.7225	88.6975	88.7475	88.6650

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee remained in a tight range against the dollar as the impact of purchases of the greenback on behalf of importers was nullified by state-owned banks' dollar sales, likley on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The Indian unit has moved in a range of just 5 paise so far Friday.  

 

"It seems like 88.80 is a sacrosanct level for now. It is not going to break easily after all the effort RBI has put in to protect it for so long," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The central bank likely sold dollars around 88.74 a dollar in order to keep the Indian unit from falling below the key 88.80 a dollar level and hitting a record low, dealers said. The RBI has been relentlessly defending the 88.80 mark since late September. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who expect further depereciation in the rupee going ahead, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. "Rupee is expected to remain under pressure till the time there is no clarity on the India-US trade deal side," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The Indian unit was also weighed down by weak risk appetite among investors after comments by US Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations of a rate cut in the US in December, dealers said. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 52.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, down from 67% likelihood of a cut earlier this week, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 14

 

NEW DELHI – At 1030 IST, the rupee was at 88.7225 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.7225 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6650 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.90	88.80	88.40	88.20
Private-sector bank	89.00	88.90	88.50	88.20
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.40	88.00
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.50	88.30

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Down as risk sentiment sours; RBI's likely dlr sales in NDF aid

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7100	88.7225	88.6975	88.7325	88.6650

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell against the dollar Friday as risk sentiment among investors dampened after comments by US Federal Reserve officials reduced bets of a rate cut in the US next month, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards markets before the spot market opened, prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low, they said.

 

The rupee was trading around its record low of 88.80 in the offshore NDF market 15 minuts before the spot market opened. However, it opened at 88.7225 a dollar in the spot market, thanks to the RBI's dollar sales in the NDF market, dealers said. 

 

"It was expected that they (RBI) will sell (dollars) in offshore," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "88.80 is a key level and it is here to stay." 

 

Some dealers speculated that the central bank possibly sold the greenback in the spot market as well. The RBI has put up a strong defence of the 88.80-a-dollar level since September, by intervening in both the NDF and spot market.

 

Several Federal Reserve officials on Thursday indicated uncertainty about further rate cuts due to worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market after two US interest rate cuts this year. This led to a fall in US and Asian stock markets and a rise in US Treasury yields, weighing on the Indian currency, dealers said. At 0930 IST, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.1?ch. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; mkt assesses Fed officials' remarks; yuan flat

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as market participants assessed recent comments by Federal Reserve officials and remained uncertain around incoming US economic data after the reopening of the government. 

 

Several Federal Reserve officials on Thursday signalled caution over further rate cuts, citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market after two US interest rate cuts this year. St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem said there was limited room to ease further without becoming overly accommodative, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said interest rate policy should remain restrictive in order to put downward pressure on inflation.

 

Asian equities fell, tracking losses on Wall Street, after Fed officials' comments. This exterted pressure on Asian currencies. Meanwhile, the White House dashed hopes for a clearer view of the US economy any time soon even after the reopening of the government, saying that the US unemployment rate for October may never be available since it is dependent on a household survey that was not conducted during the shutdown.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.5% against the dollar after South Korean President Lee Jae Myung Friday said South Korea and the US had finalised a joint fact sheet on agreements on trade and security issues after his summit with US President Donald Trump last month. South Korea will build nuclear-powered submarines and create a new partnership with the US on shipbuilding, artificial intelligence and the nuclear industry, Lee said.

 

Meanwhile, the US and South Korea released details of an agreement on Thursday that includes a $150-billion Korean investment in the shipbuilding sector approved by Washington, along with an additional $200 billion in Korean investment under a memorandum of understanding, the White House said. The joint statement comes after a meeting in October between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Trump, where they agreed to a deal that would cut US import duties on South Korea's products to 15% from 25%.

 

The Chinese yuan was flat against the dollar even after data released Friday showed China's factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year in October. Industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in October, the weakest annual pace since August 2024, and compared with a 6.5% rise in September. It missed a 5.5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll. Further, China's new home prices fell at the fastest monthly pace in a year in October, data showed on Friday, indicating sustainably weak demand in the crisis-hit property sector.

 

The Philippines peso and the Indonesian rupiah rose 0.2% and 0.1% against the dollar, respectively. The Mayalsian ringgit fell 0.1%, while the Thai baht was flat.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 14

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.80	88.60
Private-sector bank	88.90	88.65
Private-sector bank	88.90	88.60
Foreign bank	88.81	88.55
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.35
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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