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Informist, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The silver market is expected to mark its fifth consecutive year of deficit in 2025, estimated at 95 million ounces, the Silver Institute said in a release dated Thursday. The total deficit from 2021 to 2025 is estimated at nearly 820 million ounces. Global silver demand is expected to decline 4% on year to 1.12 billion ounces in 2025, with all key areas of silver demand expected to fall, particularly industrial demand, jewellery, and bar and coin demand, the institute said. Industrial demand is expected to decline 2% to 665 million ounces this year, due to economic uncertainty tied to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, as well as a more rapid pace of thrifting due to soaring silver prices.

 

"In photovoltaics (PV), global installations are set for a new record high. However, due to a sharp drop in the amount of silver used in each module, PV silver demand is forecast to ease by around by 5% y/y, (year-on-year)" the institute said. This will be partly offset by gains in the artificial intelligence market for data centres, and further growth in electric vehicle sales, it said.

 

Demand for silver jewellery and silverware is expected to decline 4% and 11%, respectively, this year. The decline is due to weakness in India, where silver has been trading at record highs, well before the international market experienced the same trend, the institute said.

 

Bar and coin demand is expected to decline 4% to a seven-year low of 182 million ounces in 2025, the institute said. This is due to weakness in the US market, which is offsetting gains in the other key markets in India, Germany, and Australia. "Despite a recent uptick in US demand, for much of 2025, the US has had to contend with sizable retail investor liquidations. In contrast, Indian investors have bought into rising local prices, expecting further upside in 2025," the institute said.

 

The global mined silver supply is expected to remain flat on year at 813 million per ounce this year, because higher Mexican and Russian production will be offset by lower output in Peru and Indonesia. Primary silver supply is expected to rise 3 million ounces to 227 million ounces, accounting for 28% of global output.

 

Mexican production is predicted to rise 5 million ounces on year to 186 million ounces. The average all-in-sustaining cost for the first half of the year fell 9% on year to $13.0 per ounce, its lowest since the first half of 2022. The decline is due to lower operating costs offsetting the rise in royalties and taxes. The average all-in sustaining cost margin rose due to higher silver prices, reaching $19.7 per ounce in the same period, the highest in over a decade.

 

Holdings in exchange-traded products are up roughly 18% through to Nov. 6, generating a year-to-date rise of 187 million ounces. This increase has been driven by worries about stagflation, the US Federal Reserve's independence, government debt sustainability, the dollar's role as a safe-haven, and geopolitical tensions. Strong silver prices and its favourable supply-demand backdrop have further boosted investor sentiment. Roughly half of all silver exchange-traded products are stored in London, which played a major role in the liquidity squeeze seen in October.

 

"This has been a dramatic year for the silver market, with record metal prices, an unprecedented liquidity squeeze resulting in record-high lease rates, record volumes being delivered into CME vaults as a reflection of tariff concerns in the US, and silver being officially designated as a critical mineral by the US government," the institute said.

 

These developments coincide with heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to the US trade policy, which has led investors to increase allocations to precious metals for portfolio diversification. As a result, investment demand has strengthened significantly, more than making up for weakness across other major areas of silver consumption.  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.75

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Reshma Ravi

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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