Informist Poll
Oct WPI seen in deflation on high base effect, lower food prices
This story was originally published at 16:44 IST on 13 November 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India's WPI likely turned deflationary in October, meaning wholesale prices fell from a year ago, because of the statistical effect of a high base and lower food prices. According to an Informist poll of 10 economists, WPI inflation is seen at a 27-month low of (-)0.9% in October, as against 0.13% in September and 2.75% in October last year.
WPI inflation was last lower than (-)0.9% in July 2023 at (-)1.23%. Estimates in the poll ranged from (-)1.42% to (-)0.5%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for October at 1200 IST on Friday.
The base effect in October is such that if the all commodities index remains unchanged from September, wholesale inflation would fall to (-)1.1%. A WPI inflation rate of (-)0.9% in October would translate to a 0.3% month-on-month rise in the all commodities index, lower than the average increase of 0.5% seen in the same month in the last 13 years.
"Apart from the high base effect, the decline in WPI was largely driven by a sharp fall in the food WPI, even as core WPI remained in positive territory," Union Bank of India said in a report. Economists at Union Bank project WPI food inflation at (-)5.7% for October as against (-)1.99% in September. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomato fell 10% on month in October, while those of onion declined 4.6%.
Core WPI inflation, inflation excluding food and fuel items, is seen around 1.9% in October, similar to September's 1.8%. Prices of most commodities in the core WPI eased in October, except precious metals, economists said.
WPI remains below its retail counterpart despite CPI inflation falling to a record low in October. Data released Wednesday showed CPI inflation fell to 0.25% in October, the lowest in the current series.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in October:
| ORGANISATION | WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| Union Bank of India | (-)1.42% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | (-)1.1% |
| Standard Chartered | (-)1.0% |
| CareEdge Ratings | (-)1% |
| ICRA | (-)1.0% |
| ICICI Bank | (-)0.84% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | (-)0.7% |
| YES Bank | (-)0.7% |
| India Ratings and Research | (-)0.5% |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | (-)0.5% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Saji George Titus
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