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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee gave up most of its losses and ended largely steady against the dollar as the impact of dollar purchases by importers was offset by a fall in the dollar index and active dollar sales by state-owned banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, earlier in the day, dealers said

 

"It was a volatile session after a long time," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Though the range was small, the rupee moved back and forth for a while. The fall in dollar index was a surprise that helped the rupee."

 

After trading in a tight range of nine paise during the day, the rupee ended the day at 88.6650 a dollar, broadly steady against the previous close of 88.6300 a dollar.

 

The Indian unit fell shortly after opening, as a fall in India's headline CPI inflation to a record low in October raised expectations of a rate cut by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee in December, dealers said. Data released Wednesday showed India's CPI inflation fell to 0.25% in October from 1.44% in September. CPI inflation was projected to fall to 0.3% in October, according to an Informist poll. 

 

Following this, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, wary of further depreciation of the Indian currency, which led the Indian unit to hit a low of 88.7275 per dollar. Importers fear further depreciation of the Indian currency amid looming uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. 

 

However, some public-sector banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, which prevented the Indian unit from falling to a record low, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

 

The central bank likely sold dollars around the 88.72-a-dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, a level the apex bank has strongly defended, dealers said. "The RBI was sitting around 88.70, like usual. It is routine now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I don't think this level will break anytime soon, considering the current optimism around the trade deal."

 

In the latter part of the day, the rupee erased most of its earlier losses against the dollar due to a fall in the dollar index in European trade as expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve got a boost after US President Donald Trump signed a short-term funding bill to end the government's longest-ever shutdown. The lifting of the shutdown will trigger the release of a backlog of US economic data, providing more clues on the Fed's rate trajectory. However, the White House on Wednesday said the October US jobs and inflation reports might never be released. 

 

"The US shutdown end in itself will not have much impact on the rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It is the data which is expected now which is important, especially the employment data." 

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.26, down from 99.47 Wednesday and 99.46 Tuesday. The index fell to 99.15 during the day, its lowest level in two weeks.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6650	88.6575	88.6350	88.7275	88.6300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	189.65	192.55	192.55	189.10	193.49

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenor forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert a drain on rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in December 2026 and March 2027, they said.

 

Over the past few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-term forward delivery. Since spot dollar sales suck out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.

 

Forward premiums did not react much to India's headline CPI inflation falling to a record low in October, as the print was broadly in line with expectations, dealers said. Market participants now await the release of the backlog of US economic data post the lifting of the shutdown to gauge the health of the world's largest economy and the future rate trajectory of the US Fed.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.14%, down from the previous close of 2.17%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 189.65 paise, against Wednesday's close of 193.49 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

Friday, the rupee will take cues from movements in the dollar index as investors assess the impact of the re-opening of the US government, dealers said. However, dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in both the non-deliverable forwards and the spot markets to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar. 

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to the India-US trade talks. They also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would exert downward pressure on the local unit.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar.

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India Rupee - World FX: Australian dlr up on strong jobs data; yen recovers

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3163	1.3171	1.3101	1.3132
EUR/USD	1.1631	1.1636	1.1579	1.1592
NZD/USD	0.5678	0.5682	0.5635	0.5666
AUD/USD	0.6577	0.6580	0.6533	0.6538
USD/JPY	154.4440	155.0110	154.3690	154.7980
USD/CAD	1.3985	1.4016	1.3986	1.4005
EUR/JPY	179.6450	179.8110	179.1700	179.4491
CHF/USD	1.2581	1.2591	1.2509	1.2531
EUR/CHF	0.9244	0.9259	0.9236	0.9249

 

 

MUMBAI – The Australian dollar rose 0.6% against the dollar after stronger-than-expected employment data Thursday dampened expectations of more interest rate cuts by the central bank. Net employment in the country rose 42,200 in October from September, when it had increased 12,700 from the previous month. That was far above market forecasts of a 20,000 gain, and underpinned by a 55,300 surge in full-time roles. 

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 3.6% this month after three rate-cut announcements this year, saying it was cautious about further easing given higher inflation, firmer consumer demand, and a revival in the housing market. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.2% against the greenback. 

 

After hitting a near nine-month low against the dollar during the day, the Japanese yen recovered and rose 0.1%. The yen declined after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Bank of Japan is aiming for moderate inflation accompanied by wage rises and economic improvement, signalling that its goal aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's focus on reviving growth. Moreover, giving voice to the Takaichi administration's view that it was premature for the central bank to raise interest rates, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said inflation has yet to sustainably hit the bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, data released Thursday showed Japan's wholesale prices rose 2.7% in October on year, but were down on month partly due to falling import costs.

 

The dollar index fell in European trade as expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve were boosted after US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, as per US time, signed a short-term funding bill to end the government's longest-ever shutdown. The lifting of the shutdown will trigger the release of a backlog of US economic data, giving more cues on the rate trajectory of the Fed. However, the White House Wednesday said US jobs and inflation reports for October 2025 might never be released.

 

At 1445 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.18, down from 99.47 Wednesday and 99.46 Tuesday. The pound sterling rose 0.1% against the greenback while the euro rose 0.2%.  (Rati Chaphekar) 

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India Rupee: Premium falls as RBI likely sells long-term forward dollars

 

	AT 1410 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6650	88.6575	88.6400	88.7275	88.6300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	189.65	192.55	192.55	189.10	193.49

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert draining out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in December 2026 and March 2027, they said.

 

Since the last few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-tenure forward delivery. On Thursday, the RBI likely sold dollars in the spot market as well, to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. Since spot dollar sales suck out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.

 

Forward premiums did not react much to India's headline CPI inflation falling to a record low in October. Data released post-market hours Wednesday showed CPI inflation fell to 0.25% in October from 1.44% in September. At 0.25%, the CPI inflation print is the lowest in the current series, which has data since 2014. "December rate cut (by the RBI) was anyways expected before this CPI data," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Bonds have also not reacted much to it. This print was mostly priced in." 

 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, as per US time, signed a short-term funding bill to end the government's longest-ever shutdown. Market participants now await the release of a backlog of US economic data post the lifting of the shutdown, in order to gauge the health of the world's largest economy and future rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve. However, the White House Wednesday said October US jobs and inflation reports might never be released. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

At 1410 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.14%, down from the previous close of 2.17%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 189.65 paise, against Wednesday's close of 193.49 paise. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Erases most losses on fall in dollar index, foreign inflows

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6450	88.6575	88.6400	88.7275	88.6300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its earlier losses against the dollar as the dollar index fell in European trade and some foreign banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, dealers said.  "It (dollar selling) was likely a reaction to dollar index's fall," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Some sudden inflows from foreign banks came in, likely into equities."

 

The dollar index fell as expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve got a boost after US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, as per US time, signed a short-term funding bill to end the government's longest-ever shutdown. The lifting of the shutdown will trigger the release of a backlog of US economic data, giving more cues on the rate trajectory of the Fed. However, the White House Wednesday said October US jobs and inflation reports might never be released.

 

The Indian unit was also supported as some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which prevented the rupee from hitting a record low, they said. The central bank likely sold dollars around 88.72 a dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, a level the apex bank has strongly defended since late September, dealers said. The Indian currency had hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30. 

 

Meanwhile, the domestic currency was weighed down by expectations of a rate cut by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee in December after a fall in India's headline CPI inflation to a record low in October. Data released Wednesday showed India's CPI inflation fell to 0.25% in October from 1.44% in September. CPI inflation was projected to fall to 0.3% in October, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists. 

 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of importers, who expect the Indian unit to depreciate further in the near term, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 13

 

MUMBAI – At 1140 IST, the rupee was at 88.7225 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6575 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6300 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.90	88.80	88.40	88.20
Brokerage firm	88.80	88.70	88.40	88.00
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.50	88.30

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Tad down as record low Oct CPI data boosts Dec rate cut bets

 

	AT 0950 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6725	88.6575	88.6575	88.6950	88.6300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded a tad lower against the greenback as a fall in India's headline CPI inflation to a record low in October fuelled expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee in December, dealers said. 

 

Data released Wednesday showed India's CPI inflation fell to 0.25% in October from 1.44% in September. CPI inflation was projected to fall to 0.3% in October, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists. At 0.25%, the CPI inflation print is the lowest in the current series, which has data since 2014.

 

"The hopes for a rate cut by the RBI had increased after its October session," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Yesterday's (Wednesday) CPI data has added to that sentiment." The RBI's rate-setting panel had kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% at its October meeting. 

 

Following this, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who are wary of further depreciation in the Indian currency, they said. Meanwhile, the dollar index was broadly steady after US President Donald Trump late Wednesday signed a funding bill that formally ended the record-setting 43-day government shutdown. At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.51, slightly higher than 99.47 Wednesday and 99.46 Tuesday. 

 

"I am not expecting much volatility from the US shutdown ending," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The main event for the rupee is still the trade deal."

 

Meanwhile, dealers expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales if the rupee falls further and approaches the 88.80 a dollar level, which the central bank has been protecting since late September. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as mkt assesses impact of US govt shutdown end

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Thursday as market participants assess the impact of the longest-ever US government shutdown ending. Late Wednesday, according to US time, President Donald Trump signed a funding bill to reopen the US government and end the shutdown.

 

The House of Representatives Wednesday proceeded with a stopgap funding package to restart disrupted food assistance, pay hundreds of thousands of federal workers, and revive a hobbled air-traffic control system. The House voted 222 to 209 Wednesday evening to pass the interim funding.

However, fully restarting the federal bureaucracy could still take days. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Wednesday that he anticipated waiting a week to start lifting flight restrictions at major airports. Moreover, the White House Wednesday said October US jobs and inflation reports might never be released. The government shutdown had halted the release of key US economic data. 

 

The dollar index rose slightly after lifting of the US shutdown. At 0915 IST, the index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.50, slightly higher than 99.47 Wednesday and 99.46 Tuesday. 

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback even after the country's head of statistics agency Thursday said Taiwan's economy could grow close to 6% this year, given the unexpected strong performance in the third quarter, as the island reaps the benefits from the artificial intelligence boom. Taiwan's export-oriented economy has soaked up strong demand in the crucial semiconductor and tech sector, thanks to artificial intelligence, which has offset the impact of the 20% tariff on exports to the US.

 

The South Korean won, the Indonesian rupiah, and the Thai baht fell 0.1% against the dollar while the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso rose 0.1%. The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 13

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.70	88.55
State-owned bank	88.80	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.50
Foreign bank	88.75	88.50
Brokerage firm	88.70	88.50
Brokerage firm	88.75	88.45
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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