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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – Onion prices in major wholesale markets are showing a mild recovery after months of weakness but traders and growers say a sharp surge is unlikely. Large carry-over stocks, high production, and subdued export demand are expected to keep prices below INR 2,000 per 100 kg in the near term.

 

In Maharashtra--India's key onion-growing state--wholesale prices have recovered to around INR 1,500 per 100 kg, from INR 800–INR 1,200 just two weeks ago. Prices had hovered around INR 1,800–INR 1,900 in August before slipping sharply through September and October.

 

The recovery has come amid reports of crop damage from heavy rains. The government has estimated losses at 40–60%, but traders put the actual figure closer to 20%. "Much of the crop recovered once rains receded," said Vikas Singh, Vice-President of the Horticulture Exporters and Produce Association. "Moreover, late kharif sowing is higher than last year, which will keep supplies flowing."

 

Traders say the recent rains have provided temporary support to prices by delaying arrivals of the new kharif crop. "Prices recovered slightly after excess rains delayed arrivals, but the upside will be limited unless exports open up," said Bharat Dighole, the president of the Maharashtra State Onion Growers Association.

 

Farmers, however, remain under pressure. "Prices were depressed for months while production costs kept rising. Many have suffered both from crop losses due to rains and from poor realisations in the market," Dighole added.

 

WHY ARE PRICES LOW?

India, one of the world's largest producers, grows around 28–30 million tonnes of onions annually, with the rabi crop accounting for nearly 70% of total output. The rabi crop, harvested towards the end of March, not only meets immediate consumption needs but is also stored for use through the next year until the new kharif crop arrives. In effect, the rabi crop grown in one year sustains the market through the following year.

 

 

The sharp fall in prices this year can be traced back to last year's bumper output. Production climbed to 30.7 million tonnes in 2024–25 from 28.4 million tonnes in 2023–24, according to Singh.

 

Meanwhile, even as production rose, exports fell. India shipped only about 1.2 million tonnes of the bulb in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), more than half of the FY24 exports when it shipped about 2.5 million tonnes.

 

The fall in numbers came after India imposed a complete export ban in December 2023 amid rising domestic prices which it then lifted in May 2024, but added a steep export duty and minimum export price that made trade unviable. The 20% export duty was finally removed on Apr. 1, yet shipments have been slow.

 

India, according to exporters, lost its export markets due to repeated policy reversals. According to Singh, Bangladesh has become largely self-sufficient by using Indian seeds, while other traditional buyers such as Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka also ramped up local production after India banned onion exports in 2023-24. He added that until 2020, Pakistan used to import onions from India for about four months each year. Now, it has emerged as a major supplier in the global market, as the high profits earned when India levied restrictions encouraged its farmers to expand cultivation.

 

BANGLADESH DEMAND

Much of the market outlook now hinges on Bangladesh--India's largest onion buyer. While Dhaka formally allowed imports between Aug. 14 and Dec. 13, it was yet to issue import permits.

 

"Bangladesh usually starts imports in July. The delay this year, combined with India's higher output, has created an oversupply situation (in India)," Singh said.

 

Carry-over stocks in India were estimated at 6–7 million tonnes as of Oct. 1--well above the average level--against a domestic consumption rate of about 2 million tonnes a month. The ample inventories have kept wholesale prices in check even as market arrivals slowed temporarily. Singh noted that, typically, by the end of October, the country holds about 2–3 million tonnes of stock. The fresh kharif onion crop usually starts arriving by late October, but unseasonal rains this year have delayed arrivals until the end of November.

 

In contrast, onion prices in Bangladesh have more than doubled in recent weeks, rising from 60–70 takas per kg to 120 takas (INR 87.10), according to local reports. Analysts there have blamed it on delayed import approvals.

 

Dighole said a reopening of Bangladesh's import window could immediately stabilise Indian prices. "If Dhaka allows imports, it will lift pressure from our mandis. Otherwise, rates will stay depressed despite crop damage due to large stocks."

 

The price crash has hit growers hard. As per regional media reports, Madhya Pradesh's Malwa region farmers say simultaneous arrivals of old and new stocks have dragged market prices to as low as INR 200 per 100 kg — barely INR 2 a kg. At the Ratlam Agricultural Produce Market, the average prices are hovering around INR 600 per 100 kg, as per reports.

 

Discontent has also grown in the country's biggest onion belt in Nashik, home to Asia's largest market yard with farmers demanding minimum support prices for the bulb. "For three years now, farmers have faced wild price swings, weather disruptions, and unpredictable export rules," Dighole said. "The government must announce a minimum support price to protect growers from these shocks."

 

RABI PLANTING SEEN DOWN

The persistent volatility and weak prices are now expected to weigh on rabi sowing, which provides the bulk of India's onion supply between April and September.

 

Agriculture expert Deepak Chavan said 8–10% of farmers may switch to maize or other crops this season. "Many are unwilling to take another risk after two consecutive seasons of high costs and poor returns," he said.

 

He said the situation has been worsened by nursery damage and rising input costs. "Farmers in Maharashtra have faced record high nursery costs for a second consecutive year, as heavy rains damaged seedbeds and raised input expenses," he said. Rabi production for 2024-25 is estimated at about 18.4 million tonnes.

 

OUTLOOK CAPPED

Analysts expect a mild recovery in prices from mid-January as kharif arrivals taper and late kharif supplies come into the market. Prices could remain firm till mid-March but are unlikely to breach the INR 2,000 per 100 kg mark.

 

"With large carry-over stocks and improved domestic output, we see limited upside," Chavan said. "Prices may rise from mid-January and remain firm till mid-March, but I don't see them profitable for farmers unless an export momentum builds up." The crop only becomes profitable when it crosses the INR 2,000 per 100 kg mark, according to experts.  End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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