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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The US Energy Information Administration has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil by $3 per barrel to average $55 per barrel in 2026, despite the fall in prices expected through the early part of 2026. The upward revision in forecast is due to China's ongoing purchases of oil for strategic stockpiling and the recent sanctions on Russia's oil sector. The recent round of sanctions could result in less oil production next year than the agency has currently predicted, it said. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to decline significantly in the first quarter of 2026 to average $54 per barrel.

 

As for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the US energy agency now expects prices to average $65.15 per barrel this year, marginally higher than its previous forecast of $65 per barrel. In 2026, the agency expects WTI prices to average $51.26 per barrel, higher than $48.50 per barrel seen in the previous estimate.

 

The agency expects production of global liquid fuels in 2025 to increase by 2.8 million barrels per day and by another 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The growth in production for the given period is driven by countries such as Brazil, the US, Guyana, and Canada. Together, these countries will contribute 75%, or 1.5 million barrels per day, of total global growth this year and 67%, or 800,000 barrels per day, in 2026, according to the agency.

 

Production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies is likely to rise by 500,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. Last month, the agency had forecast production growth of 600,000 barrels per day in 2026 from OPEC and its allies. It has lowered its projection for 2026 on the assumption that production increases due to higher targets of OPEC and its allies will moderate as the group aims to keep inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and pushing oil prices down further, the agency said.

 

Global oil inventories are likely to increase further through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. Global oil inventories are expected to rise by an average of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with an average annual increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. Inventory builds are expected to be the highest in the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, averaging 2.7 million barrels per day over that time.

 

Global consumption of liquid fuels is seen rising by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026. This growth will be driven almost entirely by non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, which together will produce 1.0 million barrels per day in 2026. Consumption by OECD countries is expected to fall by 100,000 barrels per day in 2025 before increasing by 100,000 barrels per day in 2026.

 

Global consumption of liquid fuels is seen at 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025, higher than the agency's earlier forecast of 103.99 million barrels per day. In 2026, it sees consumption of liquid fuels at 105.20 million barrels per day, slightly higher than its previous forecast of 105.11 million barrels per day.

 

At 1534 IST, the most-active January contract of Brent Crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was down 0.3% at $62.50 per barrel and the most-active December contract of WTI crude on NYMEX was down 0.1% at $58.46 per barrel.  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.66

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Udita S. Jaiswal

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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