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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a near two-week high against the dollar, primarily due to persistent dollar sales by state-owned banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. However, gains in the Indian unit were limited due to dollar buying by importers and a rise in the dollar index, they said.

 

"Apart from one jerk (selling of dollars by state-owned banks), the rupee traded steady, as has been the case for the past few days," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "The sudden dollar sales by state banks actually shocked everyone. It was likely done in anticipation of high dollar demand for tomorrow (Wednesday)."

 

After trading in a range of 20 paise during the day, the Indian unit ended the day at 88.5675 a dollar, up against its previous close of 88.6975 a dollar. Most Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.7% against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the worst hit. The Indian currency was one of the best performers among its Asian peers, as it rose 0.2% against the greenback Tuesday. 

 

The rupee started the day at 88.7025 a dollar, broadly unchanged from its previous close, due to lacklustre volumes as the US bond market was shut for the Veterans Day holiday, dealers said. Volumes in the currency market have also dried up due to the central bank's recent active intervention to support the local currency. RBI's strong presence in the market has deterred traders from placing fresh bets. 

Since September, the central bank has actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from falling past 88.80 a dollar. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

 

The dollar index rose Tuesday as hopes that the US government shutdown would end soon were fuelled after a compromise that would restore federal funding cleared an initial Senate hurdle late on Sunday, though it was unclear when Congress would give its final approval. The deal, which would restore funding for federal agencies that had expired on Oct. 1, weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

Further, US central bankers, who have supported two interest rate cuts this year, Monday seemed divided on the need for another rate cut in December, underscoring the challenge for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he deals with a divided group of policymakers. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.64, higher than 99.62 Monday and 99.56 Friday. 

 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump late Monday said the US is coming closer to making a "fair trade deal" with India. He also said that Washington will bring the tariffs on India down at "some point". "We're making a deal with India, a much different deal than we had in the past," he said. However, the rupee did not receive any support from his comments. Market participants are now awaiting the final decision of the India-US trade deal negotiations, rather than just comments around the same, dealers said.

 

"There have been a lot of comments (on trade deal) from both sides. But a lot of time has passed as well," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "So, I think everybody just wants the trade deal to come through at this point, that too in our favour."

 

The rupee remained under downward pressure as importers stepped in to buy dollars, fearing the Indian unit may depreciate going ahead. However, the central bank likely sold dollars around the 88.71 level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, a level the apex bank has strongly defended since late September, dealers said.

 

For most of the day, the rupee traded in a tight 5-paise range as the RBI's likely dollar sales blunted the impact of importers' dollar purchases. However, later in the day, the rupee broke out of the narrow band and rose against the dollar as the central bank likely stepped up its dollar sales, dealers said. 

 

"It was again an unexpected action by the central bank. The rupee was already well above the 88.80 dollar mark," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. The RBI likely sold around $800 million to $1 billion in the spot market on Tuesday, some dealers said.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.5675	88.7025	88.5175	88.7175	88.6975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	191.70	190.70	191.70	190.20	190.15

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, likely on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, gains in the forward premium were limited as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to offset the impact of its spot interventions and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity, they said.

 

The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in January 2027, they said. Since spot dollar sales push rupee liquidity out of the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.

 

Market participants now await the release of India's October inflation data on Wednesday for cues on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision at its meeting next month. CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to a record low of 0.3% in October due to a high base effect, lower food prices, and the reduction in the goods and services tax rates, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.16%, up from the previous close of 2.14%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 191.70 paise, against Monday's close of 190.15 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. However, dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in both the non-deliverable forwards and spot markets to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar.

 

They also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would put downward pressure on the local unit. Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. 

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 88.40 per dollar and support at 88.80.

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India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling falls on weak econ data; dlr index up

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3181	1.3191	1.3137	1.3159
EUR/USD	1.1563	1.1583	1.1541	1.1568
NZD/USD	0.5645	0.5650	0.5632	0.5644
AUD/USD	0.6538	0.6540	0.6490	0.6489
USD/JPY	154.0390	154.2470	153.4090	153.4200
USD/CAD	1.4017	1.4047	1.4001	1.4046
EUR/JPY	178.4400	178.4800	178.0100	178.1130
CHF/USD	1.2441	1.2450	1.2403	1.2420
EUR/CHF	0.9304	0.9326	0.9300	0.9318

 

India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling falls on weak econ data; dlr index up

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling fell 0.4% against the greenback after data released Tuesday showed the UK labour market weakened noticeably in the September quarter, boosting expectations that the Bank of England interest may cut rates next month. 

 

Wage growth in the UK slowed to 4.6% on year in the September quarter, slightly weaker than an increase of 4.7% in the three months to August. The unemployment rate rose to 5.0% – the highest reading since the three months to February 2021 — from 4.8% in Jun-Aug, data showed.

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the greenback even after a survey Tuesday showed Australia's consumer sentiment turned optimistic in November for the first time in almost four years, thanks to a much better outlook for family finances and the economy, even as the central bank held interest rates steady. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute's main index of consumer sentiment surged 12.8% to 103.8 in November, a seven-year high, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. The reading above 100 suggested optimists outnumbered pessimists for the first time since February 2022. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.3%.

 

The dollar index rose Tuesday on increasing hopes that the US government shutdown would end soon, as a compromise that would restore federal funding cleared an initial Senate hurdle late on Sunday, though it was unclear when the Congress would give its final approval. The deal would restore funding for federal agencies that lawmakers allowed to expire on Oct. 1. 

 

Meanwhile, US central bankers, who have supported two interest rate cuts this year, Monday seemed divided on the need for another rate cut in December, underscoring the challenge for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he deals with a divided group of policymakers. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem seemed unsure about the prospect of further monetary easing. "It's very important that we tread with caution here: I think there is limited room to ease policy further without policy becoming overly accommodative," he said.

 

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who dissented in October in favour of a bigger rate cut, said further policy easing is "imperative" with quickly falling inflation and a softening labour market, reports said. He reiterated his call for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting.

 

At 1430 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.66, higher than 99.62 Monday and 99.56 Friday. The euro traded steady against the greenback, while the Swiss franc and Japanese yen fell 0.1%. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Premium tad up; RBI's likely forward dollar sales limit gains

 

	AT 1410 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.5700	88.7025	88.5500	88.7175	88.6975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	191.43	190.70	191.70	190.20	190.15

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, likely on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, gains in the forward premium were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, they said.

 

The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in January 2027, they said. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market as well, which led to the rupee rising to a high of 88.55 a dollar, dealers said.

 

Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.

 

Market participants now await the release of India's inflation data for October on Wednesday for cues on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision at its meeting next month. CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to a record low of 0.3% in October due to a high base effect, lower food prices, and a reduction in the goods and services tax, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists.

 

At 1410 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.16%, up from the previous close of 2.14%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 191.43 paise, against Monday's close of 190.15 paise. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Rises as PSU banks continuously sell dollars, likely for RBI 

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.5750	88.7025	88.5500	88.7175	88.6975

 

MUMBAI – Breaking out of its tight range, the rupee rose against the dollar as some state-owned banks persistently sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The RBI has likely been intermittently selling dollars in the market since morning, before stepping up its intervention, they said. 

 

"Maybe it was some periodic selling (of dollars) or some selling pre-empting buying pressure (for dollars) tomorrow (Wednesday)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Market participants expect dollar demand to be higher Wednesday, since the US bond market is shut because of Veterans Day holiday Tuesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.50. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: In thin band; RBI's dollar sales offset importers' dollar buys

 

	AT 1250 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6800	88.7025	88.6675	88.7175	88.6975

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded in a tight range against the dollar as state-owned banks' greenback sales, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India offset the impact of importers' dollar purchases, dealers said. The Indian unit has moved in a range of just 5 paise so far Tuesday. 

 

"There was mild selling (of dollars) by nat banks (nationalised banks)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But as the volumes are dull, that was enough to counter the impact of dollar buying from importers."

 

Volumes in the currency market have shrunk due to the central bank's active intervention to support the local currency in recent times, dealers said. RBI's strong presence in the market has kept traders away from placing fresh bets, they said. Meanwhile, some importers bought dollars, fearing a fall in the rupee in the near-future, which kept the Indian unit under downward pressure.

The central bank likely sold dollars around 88.71 a dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, a level the apex bank has strongly defended since late September, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30. 

 

A rise in the dollar index also exerted downward pressure on the local unit, dealers said. At 1240 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.72, higher than 99.62 Monday and 99.56 Friday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 11

 

MUMBAI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 88.6950 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.7025 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6975 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	89.00	88.80	88.40	88.00
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.80	88.40	88.20
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.50	88.30

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Steady amid lacklustre volume; RBI's dollar sales speculated

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7050	88.7025	88.6850	88.7175	88.6975

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was largely steady against the dollar Tuesday amid lacklustre volumes as the US bond market was shut because of Veterans Day holiday, dealers said. "As it is, volumes are dull in the market because of continuous RBI (Reserve Bank of India) presence," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "A holiday in US has just added to it." 

 

Volumes in the currency market have dried up due to the central bank's active intervention to support the local currency in recent times, dealers said. RBI's strong presence in the market has deterred traders from placing fresh bets, they said. 

Since September, the central bank has actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from falling past 88.80 a dollar. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30. Dealers speculated that some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, on Tuesday as well, keeping the rupee well-supported.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose Tuesday due to growing hopes that the US government shutdown would end soon after a compromise that would restore federal funding cleared an initial Senate hurdle late Sunday. The shutdown has halted the release of key economic data in the US since last month. This weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. 

 

At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.69, higher than 99.62 Monday and 99.56 Friday. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.5% against the greenback in early trade, tracking a rise in the dollar index, which also weighed on the local unit, dealers said. 

 

Late Monday, US President Donald Trump said the US was getting close to reaching a deal with India that would expand economic and security ties between the two countries, boost US energy exports, and promote investments in key US sectors. However, the Indian currency did not react to Trump's comments. "The time is gone when markets used to react to any small development on India-US trade deal," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Now when the trade deal actually kicks in, only then some impact will be seen."

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most dn as dlr index up on hope of US shutdown ending

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Tuesday as the dollar index rose on growing hopes of the US government shutdown ending soon, after a compromise that would restore federal funding cleared an initial Senate hurdle late on Sunday. It was still unclear, however, when the Congress would give its final approval to the deal.

 

The deal would restore funding for federal agencies that lawmakers allowed to expire on Oct. 1, bringing a welcome relief to low-income families whose food subsidies have been disrupted by the shutdown, to federal workers who have gone unpaid for more than a month, and for travellers who faced disruptions due to cancelled flights.

 

Meanwhile, US central bankers, who have supported two interest rate cuts this year, Monday seem divided on the need for another rate cut in December, underscoring the challenge for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he deals with a divided group of policymakers. "It's very important that we tread with caution here: I think there is limited room to ease policy further without policy becoming overly accommodative," St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said. 

 

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who dissented in October in favour of a bigger rate cut, said further policy easing is "imperative" with quickly falling inflation and a softening labour market, reports said. He reiterated his call for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting.

 

At 0855 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.69, higher than 99.62 Monday and 99.56 Friday.

 

Tracking the rise in the dollar index, the South Korean won fell 0.5%, the most amongst it peers. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.3% and the Thai baht fell 0.2%. The Taiwan dollar was down 0.1%. Bucking the trend, both the Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback, while the Philippine peso rose 0.1%. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 11

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.85	88.50
State-owned bank	89.00	88.55
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.55
Foreign bank	88.80	88.50
Brokerage firm	88.75	88.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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