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Informist, Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

By Rati Chaphekar

The rupee ended slightly lower against the dollar Friday as importers bought dollars, fearing further depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. However, public-sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited the fall of the domestic currency.

"The volumes in the market were limited and will remain so until this trend (of RBI selling dollars) breaks," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But once it's over, it is going to be havoc in the market."

After trading in a tight range of 8 paise during the day, the rupee ended the day at 88.6600 a dollar, slightly lower than 88.6125 on Thursday.  

The rupee opened the day slightly lower against the dollar as banks bought dollars for importers, who were wary of the Indian unit depreciating further due to uncertainty related to US tariffs, dealers said. "Some importer buying (of dollars) was there throughout the day," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Nothing material. This week has also passed by with no major movement in rupee." The rupee fell only 0.1% against the dollar this week.

In the latest development on the India-US trade talks, US President Donald Trump Thursday said his talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi were going well and that he would be visiting India, as negotiations over trade continued.

The Indian unit was also weighed down by a fall in its Asian peers, they said. Most Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.5% against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the worst hit, tracking a fall in domestic stock markets.

However, the fall of the Indian unit was limited as some public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, they said. Since September, the RBI has actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from falling below 88.80 a dollar. The RBI did the same on Friday as well, dealers said. "It was the same old market today. The range is the same for rupee. They (RBI) have kept it very limited for us to do anything," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index fell as data showed weakness in the US labour market, increasing expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year, which gave some support to the Indian unit, dealers said. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 67.1% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in the Fed's meeting in December, up from 62% a day before, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

On Thursday, executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoffs announced in the US surged in October as companies recalibrated staffing during the artificial intelligence boom, a sign of potential trouble ahead for the labour market. Job cuts for the month totalled 153,074, up 183% from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. This was the highest for any October since 2003. This has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.

An estimate by the Chicago Federal Reserve Thursday showed that the US jobless rate likely edged up in October to the highest in four years as the hiring rate for unemployed workers slowed and the rate of layoffs and other job separations increased. The data is crucial as it is one of the few available for the country in the absence of official government data due to the prolonged US government shutdown.

Further, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran late Thursday said he expects the US Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates at its December meeting, despite the number of non-voting policymakers who may not want to. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.81, up from 99.70 Thursday but down from 100.16 Wednesday. The index Wednesday rose to 100.36, its highest level since May 29.

A fall in Indian equities also exerted downward pressure on the rupee, according to dealers. The Nifty 50 and Sensex ended down 0.1% each.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as US Treasury yields fell after data released Thursday showed signs of weakness in the US labour market, which increased expectations of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, dealers said. 

The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.11% Thursday from 4.17% Wednesday. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.14%, against the previous close of 2.13%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 190.15 paise, against 188.55 paise Thursday.

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. They also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would exert downward pressure on the local unit.

"Despite intermittent support, rupee sentiment remained fragile amid global uncertainty and sustained foreign outflows," Jateen Trivedi, vice president research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said. "Going into next week, rupee movement is expected to remain volatile, with the broader trading range seen between 88.25–88.90."

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. Dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market, both through the non-deliverable forwards and spot route, to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar.

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar.

India Rupee - World FX: Pound Sterling down post BoE decision; yen down 0.3%

MUMBAI – The pound sterling fell 0.2% against the US dollar after the Bank of England kept borrowing costs on hold Thursday, but a narrow vote boosted the prospect of a rate cut in December. The nine-member monetary policy committee of the bank voted 5-4 to keep the central bank's benchmark Bank Rate at 4%. "We are likely to continue to be on a gradual downward path for bank rate," Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said.

The yen fell 0.3% against the dollar after data released Friday showed Japanese household spending in September rose 1.8% from a year earlier, slightly down from the median market forecast for a 2.5% rise. The rise in household spending dented expectations of a rate hike by Bank of Japan. Consumption and wage trends are among key factors Bank of Japan is watching to determine the timing of the next rate hike.

The Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar after data released Friday showed Chinese exports unexpectedly fell in October after months of frontloading US orders to beat President Donald Trump's tariffs. China's outbound shipments shrank 1.1%, against an 8.3% rise in September and far from a Reuters poll forecast of 3.0% growth. This was the worst performance since February. Any development in China's economy affects Australia because of their close bilateral trade ties. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.4% against the greenback.

The euro fell 0.1% against the greenback after data for Europe's largest economy, Germany, showed industrial production rose less than expected in September, rising 1.3% over the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise of 3% in industrial production.

However, data Friday showed Germany's exports rose more than expected in September as shipments to the US increased for the first time after five consecutive on-month decreases. Exports from Europe's biggest economy rose by 1.4% in September compared with the previous month, beating a forecast by analysts polled by Reuters for a 0.5% increase.

The dollar index inched higher during European trade, tracking fall in the pound sterling and yen. The index had fallen Thursday after data showed weakness in the US labour market, increasing expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year. At 1500 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.85, up from 99.70 Thursday but down from 100.16 Wednesday. The index had Wednesday risen to 100.36, its highest level since May 29. (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: 1-yr fwd premium tad up as US yields fall post weak econ data

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly as US Treasury yields fell after data released Thursday showed signs of weakness in the US labour market, which increased expectations of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, dealers said. "There is some paying in forwards due to US yields but overall there's not much movement," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "One will have to see more data from US to form an opinion on rate cuts."

Data from executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed a massive rise in job cuts in the world's largest economy in October, coming in at 153,074. That was nearly three times the job cuts in September, climbing 183% on a monthly basis, and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level of layoffs for any October since 2003 in a year that has been the worst for announced layoffs since 2009, the Challenger survey said.

Moreover, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran late Thursday said he expects the US Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates at its December meeting, despite the number of non-voting policymakers who may not want to.

Following this, the 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.11% Thursday from 4.17% Wednesday. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 67.1% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 62% a day before, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.14%, against the previous close of 2.13%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 189.65 paise, against 188.55 paise Thursday.(Pratiksha)

India Rupee:Remains down as importers buy dlrs; RBI's dlr sales limit losses

MUMBAI – The rupee remained lower against the dollar as banks continued to buy dollars on behalf of importers, wary of further depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. However, losses in the Indian unit were limited as some public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, they said. 

"There is almost no scope for speclation in the market. Why will the traders place any bets?" a dealer at a private secor bank said. Since September, the RBI has actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from falling past 88.80 a dollar. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

The domestic currency was also weighed down by a fall in domestic equities, according to dealers. At 1305 IST, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.1%. 

Meanwhile, the dollar index fell as data showed weakness in the US labour market, increasing expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year, which gave some support to the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1305 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.82, up from 99.70 Thursday but down from 100.16 Wednesday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 7

NEW DELHI – At 1105 IST, the rupee was at 88.7000 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6600 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6125 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Tad down as importers buy dollars, most Asian currencies fall

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Friday as banks bought dollars for importers, wary of further depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed down by a fall in its Asian peers against the greenback, they said. However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales if the rupee comes under further downward pressure. 

Since September, the RBI has actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from falling past 88.80 a dollar. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

"The rupee has settled at its usual level," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I see it being range-bound for the rest of the day as has been the trend. No different movement is expected."

Most Asian units fell 0.1-0.5% against the dollar, with the South Korean won hit the most, tracking losses in the local stock markets. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell as data showed weakness in the US labour market, increasing expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year, which gave some support to the Indian unit, dealers said. 

At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.79, up from 99.70 Thursday but down from 100.16 Wednesday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29. 

A fall in domestic equities also exerted downward pressure on the local unit, according to dealers. At 0940 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall tracking domestic equities; yuan steady

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Friday, tracking losses in domestic equities. Asian indices fell in early trade Friday, following losses on Wall Street amid concerns about lofty valuations of artificial intelligence stocks and rising economic uncertainty.

The dollar index fell as data showed weakness in the US labour market, increasing expectations of another rate cut this year, which supported the Asian units. US-based employers cut more than 150,000 jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than 20 years, a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday. 

Further, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran late Thursday said he expects the US Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates at its December meeting, despite the number of non-voting policymakers who may not want to. Market participants are finding it difficult to gauge the interest rate trajectory of the US central bank, as various Fed officials remain divided about the next interest rate decision. 

At 0915 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.79, up from 99.70 Thursday and down from 100.16 Wednesday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29.

The Philippine peso fell 0.2% against the greenback after data Friday showed the Philippine economy grew 4.0% on year in the September quarter, following a 5.5% expansion in the June quarter. Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast growth of 5.2%. It was the slowest annual growth since the March quarter of 2021.

The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback even as data released Friday showed China's exports unexpectedly fell last month. Outbound shipments from China shrank 1.1% last month, the worst performance since February, reversing from a 8.3% rise in September, and missing a forecast of 3.0% growth in a Reuters poll. 

The South Korean won fell 0.5% against the greenback. South Korea's top government think-tank Thursday called on the central bank to maintain loose monetary policy for the time being and raised its economic growth forecasts for the current year. "As the economic recovery has not been strong, and since the trend of inflation has been underperforming the target inflation for a long while, the need to adjust the monetary policy stance is not high for now," the state-run Korea Development Institute said in a bi-annual report on the economy.

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1% against the dollar while the Thai baht traded steady. Bucking the trend, the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2% against the greenback. (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 7

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

(Rati Chaphekar)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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