RESEARCH
Scope for further rise in aluminium prices limited - Commerzbank
This story was originally published at 14:16 IST on 6 November 2025
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MUMBAI – The scope for further rise in aluminium prices is limited as inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses have surged recently and production of the metal in China remains high, Commerzbank said. Inventories at LME warehouses rose by around 100,000 tonnes at the end of last week, mainly in warehouses in Malaysia.
"Although aluminium production in China has been stagnating for several months at close to the government-set upper limit, it should be noted that this is still at a high level," Commerzbank said. This means concerns about the current shortage of the materials cannot really explain the sustained rise in aluminium prices, it said.
Aluminium prices on the LME recently rose to their highest level since 2022, supported by easing trade tensions between the US and China, Commerzbank said in the report. Supply concerns also supported prices of the metal as LME inventories were declining at the beginning of October. The government in Beijing has postponed the introduction of new export restrictions on rare earths by one year and resumed importing soybean from the US. In turn, the US reduced tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points.
This has reduced the economic risks for China, a major buyer of aluminium, Commerzbank said. Chinese imports of aluminium in the first nine months of this year were around 6% above the previous year's level, partly because China has been buying cheaper aluminium from Russia, whose exports have been redirected due to sanctions.
At 1319 IST, the three-month aluminium contract on LME was 0.9% higher at $2,875 per tonne. End
US$1 = INR 88.63
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Reshma Ravi
Edited by Nishant Maher
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