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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – After a three-month historic rally, gold prices are expected to consolidate in a range in November due to lack of fresh triggers, analysts said. Prices are likely to be volatile during the month with profit-taking expected at higher levels, they said.

 

As per the median of estimates from eight broking firms polled by Informist, the December gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India are expected to be in a range of INR 117,350 per 10 grams to INR 124,450 per 10 grams in November. On COMEX, gold prices are seen in a range of $3,870 per ounce to $4,200 per ounce during the month.

 

"Gold prices are seen consolidating in November, but the undertone seems to be bullish," Manoj Jain, director at Prithvi Finmart, said.

 

After rallying for nine consecutive weeks, gold prices have recorded two straight weekly declines as investors booked profits. Other reasons for the fall in prices included a strengthening dollar and easing trade tensions between China and the US. On Oct. 21, prices of gold recorded the steepest daily fall in several years at nearly 6%, though prices have recovered in recent days. At 1939 IST, the December gold contract on MCX was up 0.4% at INR 121,701 per 10 grams, and the same-month gold contract on the COMEX was up over 0.8% at $4,028.3 an ounce.

 

The event market participants are most keenly watching right now is the shutdown of the US government, which has delayed the release of key economic data. "The US government shutdown is still on. If any resolution is passed by them, then we will see some profit-booking in gold prices," Deveya Gaglani, senior research analyst commodities at Axis Securities, said. "Right now, prices have recovered from $3,900 to $4,000. So, there's a recovery of almost hundred dollars. So, price can again fall to that level," Gaglani said.

 

Moreover, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments have changed the outlook for future rate cuts. The US Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points for the second time in a row to 3.75-4.00%, but Powell said a rate cut in December was "far from" a foregone conclusion. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 66.3% of traders are pricing in a 25-bps rate cut in December, sharply lower than 94.4% a week ago.

 

While the 25-bps cut by the Fed was widely expected, the vote showed a divided house – Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran voted for a 50-bps rate cut, while Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City head Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep the policy rate unchanged. "In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December," Powell said at the post-policy press conference.

 

However, geopolitical and trade tariff-related uncertainties are not completely off the market's radar, which could lead to a further rise in prices in case of any unexpected announcement, analysts said. "MCX Gold December futures are expected to trade firm but with a consolidation bias through November 2025," Jigar Trivedi, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities, said.

 

"After record highs above INR 1,22,000/10g, elevated US yields and a steadier dollar may cap sharp upside, while festive and central bank demand could cushion declines. Dips toward INR 1,18,000–INR 1,20,000 can attract buying for medium-term investors," Trivedi said.

 

Riya Singh, research analyst, commodities and currency at Emkay Global Financial Services, expects gold to trade with a positive bias this month, as markets anticipate potential policy moderation by the US Federal Reserve. "The dollar's recent strength may cap the upside, but safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainty and steady central bank purchases could keep the metal well-supported. Any softening in US economic data or dovish signals from the Fed could trigger another leg higher," Singh said.

 

Following are the details of estimates of brokerages for gold prices in November, in alphabetical order:

 

Brokerage	MCX  support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)
Axis Securities	117,500	123,000	3,800	4,200
Emkay Global Financial Services	120,000	124,800	3,900	4,100
Kedia Advisory	117,200	126,400	3,860	4,172
Kotak Securities	120,000	123,500
Nirmal Bang	116,000	124,500	3,870	4,180
Prithvi Finmart	117,700	124,400	3,870	4,240
Reliance Securities	117,000	126,000	3,800	4,300
Ventura Securities	117,000	121,500	3,900	4,350
Median	117,350	124,450	3,870	4,200

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 88.58

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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