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Informist, Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee may settle broadly unchanged from the current level at the end of November as the Reserve Bank of India is likely to prevent the Indian currency from depreciating amid a stronger dollar index and uncertainty over a trade deal with the US.

 

The Indian unit may settle at 88.75 a dollar by the end of this month, broadly unchanged from the end of October, according to the median of estimates of 15 respondents from banks, corporates, and brokerages polled by Informist.

 

Though the rupee faced downward pressure last month, it ended steady against the dollar, thanks to the central bank's unflinching support. In fact, the apex bank's aggressive intervention on Oct. 15 led to the Indian unit posting an intraday gain of 89 paise, the most since November 2022.

 

Throughout the month, a stronger dollar index, uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, and persistent importer hedging weighed on the rupee. Poll respondents expect the dollar index to continue strengthening this month as well, as recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have cast doubts on another rate cut at the December meeting. 

 

The Fed last week cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, to 3.75-4.00%. However, Powell warned at a post-policy press conference that another rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion". Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in a 69% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps in December, down from the 91?fore the October policy decision, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

 

Looming uncertainty related to trade deal negotiations between India and the US is also expected to continue weighing on the domestic currency, according to poll respondents. "Indian rupee will continue to remain on a weaker path as the delay in reaching a trade agreement between the US and India, along with foreign investor outflows, will continue to weigh on the sentiment," Gaurav Sharma, associate vice-president and head of research at Globe Capital Market Ltd., said. "The rupee's fall can be traced to a combination of global pressures and domestic challenges." 

 

However, some market participants are hopeful of a breakthrough in trade deal talks by the end of this month, which may boost the Indian unit. US President Donald Trump had last month said he was ready for a trade deal with India. Indian trade officials have also repeatedly said New Delhi and Washington may close the first tranche of the trade deal by the end of the fall season. The median estimate of 12 respondents sees the rupee appreciating to 88.58 by December-end. 

 

Amid the persisting uncertainty, poll respondents expect the central bank to continue protecting the Indian currency from a sharp depreciation. However, some expect the RBI to finally allow the rupee to fall past the psychologically-crucial 89-per-dollar mark this month. The central bank's strong defence of the rupee has pinned it near 88.80 since September. Of the 15 poll respondents, eight expect the Indian currency to fall below the 89-per-dollar mark this month.

 

"While the external environment remains challenging, the Reserve Bank of India has made it clear that defending the currency remains a priority," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said. "Going ahead, the RBI is expected to maintain this balanced approach — using a mix of spot and forward tools to smooth volatility rather than target a specific level."  

 

Based on current market sentiment, unless there is any positive development on the India-US trade deal, the central bank is likely to remain the dominant player in the currency market this month as well. 

 

POLL DETAILS

 

Participant	Nov-end	Dec-end
ANZ Bank India	88.00	-
CR Forex	88.20-89.10	87.50-87.70
Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP	88.75	89.25
Globe Capital Market	87.80-89.20	87.50-89.80
HDFC Securities	88.30-89.25	88.50-89.65
IBM India	89.00	89.30
ICBC	89.50	90.00
IDFC FIRST Bank	87.50-88.00	87.50-88.00
Karur Vysya Bank	88.20	87.80
Kotak Securities	89.00	88.00
A large state-owned oil company	88.90	88.50
Mecklai Financial Services	88.50	88.00
Nuvama Institutional Equities	89.20-89.50	-
South Indian Bank	89.50	90.00
UCO Bank	87.80-88.80	-
Median	88.75	88.58

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 88.78

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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