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Informist, Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

 

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--Kpler: India's crude oil imports at 4.81 mln bpd in Oct, up 3% on month 
--Kpler: Russia remained India's top crude oil supplier Oct with 1.62 mln bpd 
--Kpler: Russia had 34% share in India's crude oil import basket October 
--Kpler: Iraq 2nd-largest crude oil supplier to India in Oct at 826,000 bpd 
--Kpler:Saudi Arabia 3rd-largest oil suppplier to India in Oct at 669,000 bpd 
--Kpler:US crude exports to India sharply up at 568,000 bpd Oct, share at 12% 
--Kpler: US crude oil exports to India in Oct highest since Mar 2021 
--Kpler: Indian refiners cautious ahead of US sanctions
--Kpler: India's refiners expected to broaden crude import basket 
--Kpler: See higher crude inflows from US, Latin America, West Asia 
--Kpler: India unlikely to completely halt crude oil imports from Russia
 

 

By Pallavi Singhal and Ashutosh Pati

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – India's crude oil imports in October stood at 4.81 million barrels per day, around 3% higher than September's 4.67 million barrels per day, as refiners continued to recalibrate sourcing patterns amid emerging geopolitical shifts and evolving arbitrage economics, data from global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.

 

Russia remained India's largest crude supplier, shipping around 1.62 million barrels per day in October, accounting for nearly 34% of total imports. While Russian inflows remained largely steady from September, the key development in October was the sharp rise in imports from the United States, which climbed to 568,000 barrels per day — the highest since March 2021. US crude accounted for 12% of India's total imports. 

 

"India's October crude mix clearly reflects growing diversification and opportunistic buying patterns," said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler. "The surge in US arrivals was driven by economics — a wide Brent–WTI (West Texas Intermediate) spread, weak Chinese demand, and attractive delivered prices — rather than sanctions-related shifts."

 

India imported 826,000 barrels per day from Iraq in October, making it the second-largest supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia at 669,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler data. Imports from the United Arab Emirates fell to 363,000 barrels per day in October. India's crude oil imports from Nigeria fell slightly in October, while those from Brazil more than doubled from the previous month.

 

The increased inflow of US crude was largely economics-led and is expected to remain elevated in the near term. "These barrels were likely agreed upon before the recent US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, given the voyage time of around 45–55 days," Ritolia said. "So the spike was not sanctions-driven but a result of strong arbitrage signals."

 

However, Ritolia expects further upside in US crude inflows to be limited, as freight costs, longer voyage times, and WTI's lighter yield make it less competitive beyond current arbitrage windows.

 

Meanwhile, refiners are expected to exercise greater caution on Russian grades following the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil effective Nov. 21. "Until the deadline, Russian crude arrivals remain strong at around 1.6–1.8 million barrels per day, but December loadings are likely to ease as refiners reassess exposure," Ritolia said.

 

Despite short-term volatility, a complete halt in Russian imports appears unlikely. "Unless refiners themselves face direct sanctions or the Indian government imposes formal restrictions, Russian barrels will continue flowing, albeit through more complex trading routes," he said.

 

To offset potential declines in direct Russian supply, Indian refiners are expected to lift inflows from West Asia, Latin America, and the US, though high freight costs could limit the scale of substitution. "The broader trend points to an India that is widening its crude basket — balancing cost, supply security, and geopolitics," Ritolia added.  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.78

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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