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Informist, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – The Centre is likely to set the sugar sales quota for November at 2.20-2.25 million tonnes, lower than the 2.40 million tonnes allocated in October, owing to lower demand from institutional and bulk buyers, market participants told Informist. As there are no major festivals next month, demand is expected to be much lower, especially from bulk consumers of sugar such as confectionaries, said traders. The government is expected to announce the November sugar sales quota in the next two days.

 

Demand from households is expected during the first week of November, after which demand will soften as most households stock up sugar at the start of the month, said Mukesh Kuvadia, secretary of the Bombay Sugar Merchants Association. There are no festivals during the month, hence 2.2 million tonnes of sugar will be more than enough to meet the demand, Kuvadia added. Traders also expect the sugar sales quota to be lower as the temperature will be colder in November and there will be minimal demand from ice-cream and cold-drink manufacturers. 

 

The sugar sales quota set by the government for October was 2.40 million tonnes, 2% higher on month from 2.35 million tonnes in September, but 6% lower from 2.55 million tonnes in October last year. Despite the Diwali festival this month, the quota was not completely lifted as demand did not pick up. "Most mills are yet to meet the sales quota for the month and there are chances that they will not be able to sell the entire quantity," said Naresh Gupta, a trader from north India.

 

Gupta expects the sales quota to be around 2.1 million tonnes in November. "Despite lower quota, prices are likely to remain at the current levels due to lack of demand," Gupta said. Mills in Uttar Pradesh have cut prices by a total of INR 190-INR 200 per 100 kg this month due to subdued demand. In the last week of September, sugar prices had risen INR 70-INR 80 per 100 kg in anticipation of higher demand in October. However, the sales quota of 2.40 million tonnes was seen to be more than sufficient and prices could not sustain at higher levels, traders said.

 

Seemal Sudhir Jain, secretary of the Kolhapur Karad Sangli Sugar Merchants Association, expects the sales quota for November to be at 2.2 million tonnes as there is poor demand amid rising supply. "Harvesting of new crop is going to begin in the first week of November in most states, so there will be ample availability," he said. Harvesting was supposed to start towards October-end, but was delayed due to the retreating monsoon, he added.

 

Prices are likely to be on the downtrend irrespective of the quota due to sluggish demand, Jain said. However, during the first week, prices could increase by INR 20 per 100 kg or so due to household demand, but again fall back to current levels or even further, he said. "In Maharashtra, prices are seen at INR 3,500 per 100 kg during November and in Uttar Pradesh at INR 3,700 per 100 kg," Jain added.

 

Prices will fall, no matter what the quota is, said G.K. Sood, chairman of MEIR Commodities. He expects the sales quota for November to be around 2.2 million tonnes. "Mills are facing financial constraints to pay the farmers. Hence, they will reduce the prices to sell the entire quota as they can't afford to hold back stocks," he said. 

 

The government fixes the maximum quantity of sugar available for sale every month to support prices and help mills clear the arrears of sugarcane farmers. The government has estimated gross sugar production for the sugar season 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) at around 34 million tonnes. This is a conservative estimate based on the first round of discussions with states and may be revised slightly upwards once the sugar crushing begins.  End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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