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Informist, Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025

MUMBAI – As gold prices in the Indian and global markets continue to rise to newer highs, ICICI Bank expects the upward trajectory to continue in the remaining days of the current calendar year as also into 2026. Noting that gold prices have surged to a record high this year, rising by up to 15% over a month and by about 60% in 2025, the bank said in a report that the sharp rise in prices over the last month has come from renewed adverse political developments along with the continuation of dollar debasement concerns and ongoing safe-haven buying.

More specifically, it said the primary structural support for gold prices is likely to come from the ongoing concerns about the macroeconomic landscape of the US economy.

On Friday, gold prices reached a record high of $4,392 per ounce on COMEX and INR 132,994 per 10 gm on MCX, also a record high. According to the report, global gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $4,200 per ounce to $4,500 per ounce in the remainder of 2025 and in the range of $4,500 per ounce to $4,700 per ounce in the first half of 2026. It sees local gold prices in INR 120,000 per 10 grams to INR 135,000 per 10 grams range over 2025 and in the INR 130,000 per 10 grams to INR 145,000 per 10 grams in the first six months of 2026.

"Going into 2026, concerns about US public finances, continued structural slowing in US growth and concerns about central bank independence could remain in place that will work to ensure that demand for gold remains robust. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) easing policy by a further 50 bps in 2025 and possibly by an additional 50 bps in 2026 could mean that US real yields drop that could create additional support for gold prices."

Moreover, the currency debasement-related concerns as also concerns about public finances in advanced economies could ensure that the demand for precious metals remains elevated, it said.

ICICI Bank Global Markets argued in its report, released Friday, that factors causing the bullishness in gold prices are likely to continue for some more time. "We maintain our bullish bias for gold prices over Q42025 and into 2026 reflecting the safe-haven appeal from geo-political, trade related and political concerns remaining in place. The FOMC easing policy will also work as an additional support. Besides, structural concerns about the US macroeconomic landscape could continue to work as the primary bullish catalyst in the medium term."  End

US$1 = INR 87.97

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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