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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – Wheat production in Punjab is likely to fall 5-15% in the ongoing crop year as recent floods, which submerged vast stretches of farmland, have eroded fertile top soil and deposited thick layers of sand and silt. The Punjab government's estimate is that wheat production in the state will fall 5-7%.

 

However, some experts expect these losses to be offset by higher wheat sowing and better yields in other major wheat producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana on the back of good soil moisture and high reservoir levels.

 

Punjab, which contributes nearly 16% to India's total wheat output, produced a record 17.9 million tonnes of the grain last year, after sowing the grain on almost 3.5 million hectares. The state also reported its highest-ever yield of 5,116 kg per hectare, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. This year, however, officials and experts fear production could drop sharply as flooding in September has affected over 400,000 hectares of agricultural land, with about 150,000 hectares of this completely destroyed.

 

On the basis of the latest high yield, if farmers are unable to use the entire 400,000 hectares of damaged land, Punjab's wheat output is likely to fall by 2 million tonnes, according to a back-of-the-envelope calculation. However, if one considers that the output from only 150,000 hectares will be entirely lost, and production from the remaining 250,000 hectares is down only about 30%, the total loss of production will be 1.15 million tonnes.  

 

If one estimates production loss of 50% on the less damaged 250,000 hectares, the loss of output will be 1.4 million tonnes. None of these estimates factor in any possible loss from lower productivity that the remaining 3.1 million hectares may see.

 

"The state's sowing will be delayed, and output could be affected by 5-7%," Punjab's Agriculture Minister Gurmeet Singh Khudian told Informist. The flooding, he said, had left behind thick layers of silt and sand that may take weeks to clear. This could delay rabi wheat sowing, which typically begins in mid-October. 

 

Agricultural policy analyst Indra Shekhar Singh estimates the wheat crop output to drop by at least 15%. "(Even) this is a conservative estimate," he said. Singh is former director - policy and outreach at the National Seed Association of India.

 

Several other industry participants and experts Informist spoke to said it was too early to estimate the loss in wheat output; they would provide an estimate only once sowing starts. 

 

NATIONAL OUTPUT NOT AT RISK

Other wheat-growing states are expected to offset the production loss that Punjab may report. According to Rajbir Yadav, principal scientist at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, ample rainfall and full reservoirs in central and northwest India have set the stage for a strong rabi crop elsewhere. "Good soil moisture and groundwater recharge will encourage higher acreage in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and southern Haryana. These areas could produce above-average yields this season," Yadav said.

 

An analysis of yield and acreage data from Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan for six years shows both acreage and yields in these states have increased in years of good rainfall. Notably, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh have shown resilience in acreage growth, with increased sowing even in years with poor monsoon, driven by rising minimum support prices. Over the past four years, wheat sowing in Haryana has risen 1.4% annually, while Madhya Pradesh has seen a whopping 6% annual rise in acreage as it has access to better irrigation facilities.

 

If the acreage in Madhya Pradesh increases 6% this year over last year, this state alone would report an increase of 470,000 hectares in acreage, higher than the 400,000 hectares damaged in Punjab. The total area under wheat in Madhya Pradesh last year was 7.76 million tonnes, which was more than double the wheat acreage in Punjab.

 

For Rajasthan, the trend has been different. The acreage has risen every time the country received good rains. Last year, when rains were excess, the area under wheat rose almost 16% to 3.2 million hectares. In 2022-23, again a good year in terms of rainfall, acreage rose 8% to 2.8 million hectares.

 

The acreage in Haryana has seen only marginal shifts owing to its saturated land capacity. The area sown with wheat in the state generally ranges from 2.3 million hectares to 2.6 million hectares. The trend of wheat yields in these three states reflect the impact of the monsoon – falling in poor monsoon years and gaining substantially in good ones.

 

In the past six years, average yields in Haryana rose over 1% in good years, while those in Rajasthan rose over 8%. Madhya Pradesh stands out with consistent yield growth of over 6% annually, even in years with poor rainfall. An analysis of the past year's production data shows that if acreage or yields rise 4.4% in these three states, production will rise by 2 million tonnes. This will make up for the potential loss of production in Punjab. Alternatively, if acreage and yield rise 2.15?ch, wheat production in these three states will again rise by 2 million tonnes.

 

In 2024-25, the three states together produced 46.23 million tonnes of wheat on 13.33 million hectares, which implies a yield of 3,468 kg per hectare. While this is much lower than the yield of 5,116 kg per hectare in Punjab, both the acreage and the total output far exceeds that of Punjab. To achieve an increase of 2 million tonnes in wheat production, these three states would need to raise acreage to 13.91 million hectares, an increase of 4.4%.

 

This may not be unachievable, says Deepak Pareek, founder of the Global Grains and Pulses Council. "With the prediction of good winters, a good hike in minimum support prices, a good monsoon which has left ample soil moisture, as well as the background of farmers making bumper prices last season, this rise is more than achievable," he said. The southwest monsoon this year was above normal for the country as a whole, with rainfall totalling 108% of the long-period average.

 

In fact, Pareek sees overall wheat production in the country rising by about 5 million tonnes despite the impact of floods in Punjab. "Every year, the overall sown area anyway rises about 2%. This year, I see wheat replacing chana (gram) crop in some regions, which will push sowing up. Furthermore, good yields are likely due to good soil moisture," he said.

 

Yadav of Indian Agricultural Research Institute agrees that sowing in Punjab will be delayed, especially in low-lying areas where groundwater will take longer to recede and this could create another problem for the crop and the total output. "If water drains quickly, farmers can sow wheat till the end of November or mid-December," he said. For those whose fields remain inundated for longer, Yadav has a solution. "Farmers can sow wheat till mid-January using short-duration wheat varieties, which mature by April."

 

Delayed sowing of the crop comes with its own risks. "This delayed sowing pushes the grain-filling stage of the crop into March–April, when higher temperatures can shrink kernels and reduce yield," Yadav said. In 2023, unusually high temperatures in late March and early April had adversely affected grain-filling and led to early senescence, reducing crop yields, especially of wheat. Even though the government estimated that a record 113.3 million tonnes of wheat was produced, experts had doubted the estimate. Later that year, prices of wheat had soared, showing signs of low availability. 

 

The government was forced to intervene in the market through open market sales, selling a record 10 million tonnes in 2023-24 (Apr-Mar) as it attempted to cool down. This surpassed the previous high of 8.1 million tonnes of open market wheat sales by the government in 2018-19, when crop output was affected by a poor monsoon. Notably, both instances coincided with general elections, prompting the government to take measures to keep prices of the staple grain under control. Typically, the government sells only around 2.5-3.0 million tonnes of wheat annually in the open market.

 

Irrespective of whether wheat output in 2023-24 was a record 113.3 million tonnes or not, the higher sales by the government led to a sharp decline in government wheat stocks, which plummeted to a seven-year low of 9.7 million tonnes by Mar. 1, 2024, breaching the required buffer norm of 13.8 million tonnes. This was similar to previous instances when early heatwaves had damaged crops. For instance, after a bumper wheat harvest of 109.59 million tonnes in the 2020-21 crop year, production fell to 106.84 million tonnes in 2021-22 due to heatwaves striking as early as March. This prompted the government to impose a ban on wheat exports, which remains in effect till date.

 

Yadav, nonetheless, expects the overall national wheat output – estimated last year at 117.5 million tonnes – to remain largely unaffected. "Losses in Punjab will be locally significant but should be compensated by gains in other states," he said.

 

PROBLEMS BEYOND OUTPUT

Experts said the scale of the damage extends beyond the immediate crop loss. Agricultural policy analyst Singh explained that as floodwaters recede, they carry away the upper top soil layer and dissolve chemical fertilisers used by farmers, leaving behind impoverished land. "When nutrient-rich soil is lost, fields become malnourished. Farmers will need urgent restoration measures and nutrient replenishment to ensure the next wheat crop can take root properly," he said.

 

The problem, he added, is likely to be aggravated by the limited availability of fertilisers. "With national fertiliser stocks already tight, Punjab could face a shortages of urea and di-ammonium phosphate. This will likely lead to hoarding and possibly black marketing. Farmers might be forced to pay higher input costs, or worse, turn to spurious agri-chemicals."

 

Sediment deposition, he said, poses another serious challenge. "The upstream soil runoff and debris, once settled, hardens over fields, forming a crust that seals the soil underneath and prevents water infiltration and root penetration," he said. Farmers will have to use heavy machinery to remove sediment before replanting – an operation that is both costly and time-consuming.

 

Moreover, new risks arise from pests and plant diseases as excess moisture and post-flood humidity create conditions conducive for pest and fungal infestations. "Once the floodwaters retreat, you'll see a spike in fungal and viral diseases as plants under stress are most vulnerable. Pests like whitefly will look for new hosts and attack young crops," Singh said.

 

To cut losses and use the flooded land productively, the Centre will suggest that farmers sow short-term crops such as cucumber, pumpkin, or mustard before planting wheat, a senior official in the Ministry of Agriculture told Informist. However, many experts are not convinced about the feasibility of this strategy.

 

Amrit Gill, a former Punjab government officer who retired as secretary of the Punjab State Agricultural Marketing Board, said such proposals often overlook on-ground economic realities. "Short-term crops may delay wheat sowing further, as they take 30–60 days to mature. More importantly, small and marginal farmers may not take the risk without assured marketing and procurement mechanisms," she said.

 

While larger farmers might experiment with a portion of their land for diversification, marginal farmers depend entirely on secure crops such as wheat for household income, she said. "Without clear marketing support, diversification can deepen distress rather than helping recovery."  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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