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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

NEW DELHI – BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has raised its average annual copper price forecast to $9,650 per tonne from $9,500 per tonne for 2025 due to supply disruptions and strong demand from the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors. However, it warned that escalating US–China trade tensions could limit further gains.

Copper prices have averaged $9,609 per tonne so far this year. Tuesday, they were trading around $10,556 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange. BMI sees copper prices rising to $11,000 per tonne in 2026, and $12,500 in 2027. Copper prices are forecast to rise in the short term amid expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve later this month. "Easing monetary policy will likely provide a tailwind to economic activity and growth heading into 2026, as will increased foreign investment into the US as a result of trade deals being made in 2025," BMI said in a report.

Supply disruptions in key copper producing countries such as Chile and Indonesia have tightened the market. Production at Chile's Codelco hit a 20-year low in August after an accident at the El Teniente mine while Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia declared force majeure following an accident in September, curbing production through 2026.

Teck Resources Ltd., a Canadian mining company, has also revised downward its copper output guidance through 2028 due to ongoing challenges at its Quebrada Blanca project. Though refined copper production in China is expected to grow 2.4% this year, overall global supply remains constrained, BMI said.

However, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties between China and the US will continue to dampen sentiment. China this month announced export controls on rare earths, following which the US threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from Nov. 1. "Our copper price forecast of $9,650 per tonne for 2025 assumes that prices will remain supported in November and December, but not rally further as tensions between the US and Mainland China intensify once again," BMI said.

Meanwhile, Chinese copper demand continues to be supported by the growing green energy transition. Demand from the solar and electric vehicles sectors is boosting demand for the red metal. China's solar capacity surged 99% on year in the first half of 2025, but weak property and manufacturing activity pose challenges, BMI said.

BMI projects copper prices to reach $17,000 per tonne by 2034 as the energy transition fuels long-term demand, keeping the market in a structural supply deficit. "We expect the copper market to remain in deficit as the green transition accelerates along with the demand for 'green' metals, including copper," it said.  End

US$1 = INR 88.79

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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