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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling slumps on weak wage data; yen up 0.2%

MUMBAI – The pound sterling fell 0.6% against the dollar after data released Tuesday showed growth in average UK earnings slowed slightly in the three months to August, indicating the Bank of England may be able to continue cutting interest rates, though at a more cautious pace.

Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, were 4.7% higher in Jun-Aug than a year earlier, slightly weaker than an increase of 4.8% in the three months to July and the slowest since May 2022. The Swiss franc fell 0.1% against the greenback and the euro traded steady.

The Japanese yen rose 0.2% against the dollar after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato Tuesday said Japan needs to come up with a new economic strategy that suits the current situation where inflation, instead of deflation, has become a concern unlike in the times of "Abenomics" stimulus policies. "Abenomics" refers to policies intoduced by the former prime minister Shinzo Abe, a mix of bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and reform, which helped the economy escape more than a decade of deflation but ran up massive government debt.

The dollar index rose further in European trade as US President Donald Trump's toned-down comments on tariffs on China and a potential meeting with his Chinese counterpart led to expectations of a de-escalation of the trade spat between the two economic heavyweights.

Trump had Friday announced an additional 100% tariff on China after Beijing expanded export controls on rare earths earlier in the week. The US will levy an extra 100% tariff on imports from China, along with export controls on "any and all critical software", from Nov. 1, Trump had said. At 1604 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.42, against 99.25 Monday and 98.85 Friday

The Australian dollar fell 0.8% against the dollar amid uncertainty related to the US-China trade spat. China and Australia share close bilateral ties. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.6% against the greenback.

Australia's central bank saw no need for an immediate cut in interest rates at its September policy meeting, given some stickiness in services inflation and steady employment. Future easing would be data-dependent, minutes of the meeting, released Tuesday, showed.  (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Stays down as importers, FPIs buy dlrs; RBI prevents record low

MUMBAI – The rupee remained lower against the dollar, hovering near its record low, as banks bought dollars for foreign portfolio investors and importers, dealers said. However, losses in the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars through public sector banks, which prevented the rupee from falling to a lifetime low. So far on Tuesday, the rupee has moved in a range of just 8 paise. 

Some dealers said banks purchased dollars for foreign fund outflows from equities on account of the unalloted shares of initial public offering of domestic companies. Rubicon Research Ltd. and Canara Robeco Asset Management Co. Ltd.'s IPO closed on Monday. IPOs of Tata Capital Ltd. and LG Electronics Ltd. had opened for public subscription last week.

"We saw FPI outflows in a good volume," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "This might be the unalloted funds that are going back after various IPOs (initial public offerings) last week."

The central bank likely sold dollars persistently around 88.79 a dollar, dealers said. The Indian unit touched a low of 88.7975 a dollar during the day, just shy of its lifetime low of 88.8025. In the last few weeks, the RBI has actively intervened in the currency market to protect 88.80 a dollar.

Further, some banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, wary of a further depreciation in the rupee, which further weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Gold importers also bought the greenback, according to some dealers. 

The dollar index rose further in European trade as US President Donald Trump's toned down comments against tariffs on China and a potential meeting with his Chinese counterpart led to expectations of de-escalation in tensions between the two economic heavyweights. At 1324 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.26, against 99.25 Monday and 98.85 Friday

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.60 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Rati Chaphekar) 

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 14

MUMBAI – At 1100 IST, the rupee was at 88.7800 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.7375 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6700 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Falls as oil cos, importers buy dollars; RBI intervention eyed

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Tuesday as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. "Yesterday (Monday) there was some optimism in later part of the day because of the India-US trade deal news, but it was momentary," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "The usual buying (of dollars) by importers bought the rupee back to its normal level."

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of current dollar-rupee levels, wary of further depreciation in the Indian currency, dealers said. The dollar index was broadly strong as US President Donald Trump's toned down comments against tariffs on China and a potential meeting with his Chinese counterpart led to expectations of de-escalation in tensions between the two economic heavyweights. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.26, against 99.25 Monday and 98.85 Friday.

However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales at around 88.80 a dollar, as has been the case in the past few weeks, to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low. "I am seeing the same range-bound trade for rupee. RBI will stand in the way of 89 (a dollar) for as long as possible I think," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

Market participants will continue to keep a close eye on fresh develpments on India-US trade deal negotiations, especially after media reports Monday said an Indian team was leaving for the US for the next round of trade talks this week.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.60 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid US-China tariff uncertainty, yuan dn 0.1%

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Tuesday amid uncertainty related to US-China trade tensions. US President Donald Trump Friday announced an additional 100% tariff on China after Beijing expanded export controls on rare earths last week. The US will levy an extra 100% tariff on imports from China, along with export controls on "any and all critical software" from Nov. 1, Trump had said.

However, Trump's toned down comments against tariffs on China and a potential meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping led to expectations of de-escalation in tensions between the two economic heavyweights. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that Trump remains on track to meet Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month amid the ongoing trade uncertainties.

The dollar index surged last week due to continued uncertainty around the US government shutdown as Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a budget for the government's new fiscal year. The shutdown has continued for its third week, halting the release of key economic data, which is vital for investors to gauge the rate cut trajectory of the Federal Reserve. At 0840 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.27, against 99.25 Monday and 98.85 Friday. The Chinese yuan fell 0.1% against the dollar. 

The Indonesian rupiah rose 0.1% against the dollar after Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa Monday said they are considering injecting more liquidity into the country's state banks. However, he did not specify the amount, adding that the government was still reviewing the impact of a recent $12.08 billion injection of liquidity for state banks, which was given to boost lending as a way to stimulate economic growth.

The South Korean won fell 0.1%. The country's finance minister Monday said South Korea is discussing with the US various ways to set up a bilateral foreign exchange swap line as part of a trade deal over concerns about how proposed US investments could skew the local currency market. He said that the maximum amount of direct investment South Korea would be able to make in the US each year at around $20 billion, without depleting central bank reserves, compared with $350 billion agreed in the initial deal reached in July.

The Taiwan dollar, Philippine peso, and Thai baht rose 0.1% each against the greenback whereas the Malaysian ringgit traded steady.  (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 14

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

(Rati Chaphekar)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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