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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The global refined zinc market is expected to be in a surplus of 85,000 tonnes this year while a larger surplus of 271,000 tonnes is expected in 2026, according to the latest forecast from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.

 

The group expects global refined zinc production to rise around 3% to 13.80 million tonnes in 2025 and global output is forecast to grow a further 2.4% to 14.13 million tonnes next year. In China, a growth of over 6% is expected this year mainly as a consequence of the recent commissioning of a substantial amount of new capacity, the study group said. Production is also expected to increase in Norway, where Boliden completed a 150,000-tonne-per-year expansion at its Odda smelter in March.

 

However, in Italy and Japan, refined zinc production is forecast to decline due to the closure of both Glencore's Portovesme secondary smelter and Toho Zinc's Anakka operation, respectively. Output is also expected to fall in Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and the Republic of Korea mainly as a result of a temporary suspension of operations at the Seokpo smelter.

 

In 2026, global production will benefit from greater availability of concentrates, the group said. Output is expected to rise in Brazil, Canada, Norway, and China, where a 500,000-tonne-per-year capacity smelter, vertically integrated with the Huoshaoyun mine, is expected to initiate commercial production.

 

Global demand for refined zinc is forecast to rise over 1% to 13.71 million tonnes in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tonnes in 2026, according to the study group. Demand is expected to rise 1.3% in China this year but only a marginal increase is expected in 2026. European demand is expected to grow at 0.7% in 2025 after declining over the last three years, mainly because of a rise in demand in France, Germany, Norway, and Poland. "Recent data suggest that both construction and industrial activity in the EU (European Union) have improved slightly in recent months," it said. 

 

Demand for refined zinc is also expected to rise in India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and Vietnam but is seen falling in Brazil and the Republic of Korea this year. In 2026, demand is expected to rise in Europe, Brazil, India, and the US but may fall in the Republic of Korea.

 

Global zinc mine production is expected to rise around 5% to 12.51 million tonnes in 2025 and further rise by 2.4% to 12.80 million tonnes in 2026, the group said. European output is expected to rise substantially this year, benefiting from higher production in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Portugal, the Russian Federation, and Sweden. Rises are also expected in China, South Africa and Peru, mainly as a result of higher output at the Antamina mine and the reopening of the Iskaycruz operation. These rises will partially be balanced by a substantial reduction in the US, where Teck Resources expects lower output at its Red Dog operation in 2025, the group said.  End

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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