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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee continued to trade in a tight range and ended steady against the dollar for the fifth consecutive day Thursday. This was because the Reserve Bank of India maintained a tight grip on the Indian currency amid a sharp rise in the dollar index and persistent dollar purchases by importers, dealers said.

 

"All of us are hoping that there will be some movement in the rupee at least," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "We are fine with movement on any side (appreciation or depreciation of rupee), we just hope that this rupee level (of 88.80 a dollar) breaks soon."

 

After trading in range of just 6 paise during the day, the rupee settled at 88.7825 a dollar Thursday, against 88.7975 on Wednesday. 

 

The rupee opened the day slightly higher against the greenback as the dollar index came off its two-month high slightly, dealers said. However, banks stepped in to buy dollars for importers, particularly gold importers, on the expectation that the rupee will depreciate, which led the Indian currency to give up the gains, dealers said. The rupee has been on the downtrend due to the uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, with Washington imposing steep tariffs on New Delhi.

 

Some public sector banks stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of the RBI, which prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. The rupee touched a low of 88.7950 a dollar during the day, just shy of its lifetime low of 88.8025. The central bank has been actively intervening in the currency market from the past few weeks, which has kept the rupee in a tight range and lowered volatility in the exchange rate.

 

"88.80 held for another day. The market is directionless at this point. Nobody knows what the RBI is trying to achieve through this intervention strategy," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

In European trade, the dollar index surged to a fresh two-month-high following a fall in the euro and Japanese yen. The dollar index also surged owing to growing uncertainty around the extended US government shutdown, which started last week as Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a budget for the government's new fiscal year.

 

"The dollar has been strengthening day by day, it is a lot of pressure on the rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Some more depreciation of the rupee will be good considering the US tariffs, it will make our exports more competitive." At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.86, against 98.82 Wednesday and 98.57 Tuesday. The index rose to a high of 99.10 during the day.

 

Some banks sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors for investing in initial public offerings of domestic companies, which also supported the domestic currency during the day, according to dealers. LG Electronics India Ltd.'s public offer opened for subscription Tuesday and will close on Thursday. The public offer of Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. will open on Friday and close on Oct. 14. Bidding by anchor investors was scheduled Thursday.

 

The rupee was also supported by a rise in domestic equities, dealers said. The Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.5% higher each.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7825	88.7400	88.7400	88.7950	88.7975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	197.93	195.85	198.05	195.85	196.98

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended higher Thursday as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels and on expectations of a depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has fallen over 10 basis points so far this week, hitting a near seven-week low on Wednesday.

 

However, the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery in order to offset its spot interventions and avoid sucking out rupee liquidity, which limited the rise of the premiums, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in March 2027, they said.

 

The central bank had sold dollars for forward delivery in the last three sessions as well, according to dealers. As spot dollar sales suck out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.23%, against the previous close of 2.20%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 197.93 paise, against 196.98 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. However, they expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent the rupee from testing the psychologically crucial level of 89.00 a dollar. "I think RBI will take this intervention till the end of this week if they have kept it going throughout the week," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. They expect weak risk appetite among investors, due to uncertainty about US tariffs, to continue weighing on the rupee.

 

Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars, as they are wary of the rupee declining further, which would exert pressure on the local unit. The rupee may get support from foreign portfolio inflows linked to initial public offerings of domestic companies, dealers said. "Post the IPO allotments, we might see good outflow volumes, as many unallotted funds will go out from domestic equities," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.50 to 88.90 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar, which, if broken, can push the rupee to 89.00, they said.

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India Rupee - World FX: Euro dn on French political crisis; dlr index surges

 

	AT 1505 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3352	1.3419	1.3348	1.3400
EUR/USD	1.1612	1.1648	1.1607	1.1628
NZD/USD	0.5769	0.5806	0.5764	0.5780
AUD/USD	0.6579	0.6610	0.6571	0.6583
USD/JPY	153.0590	153.2170	152.4130	152.6260
USD/CAD	1.3955	1.3964	1.3934	1.3951
EUR/JPY	177.7440	177.9350	177.3740	177.4750
CHF/USD	1.2451	1.2496	1.2442	1.2469
EUR/CHF	0.9326	0.9333	0.9316	0.9315

 

India Rupee - World FX: Euro dn on French political crisis; dlr index surges

 

MUMBAI – The euro continued to weaken for the fourth consecutive day, falling 0.2% against the greenback amid a political crisis in France after the resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his government earlier this week. French President Emmanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister in the next 48 hours, his office said on Wednesday, adding that a majority of lawmakers were against holding a snap parliamentary election.

 

The euro also fell after data Thursday showed German exports unexpectedly fell in August due to a sharp decline in US demand amid Washington's tariffs on European imports. Exports from Europe's biggest economy fell 0.5% in August compared to July. Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a 0.3% increase. 

 

The Japanese yen continued its depreciation spree this week, falling 0.2% against the dollar as Sanae Takaichi was picked as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and is thus set to become the new prime minister of Japan. This has fuelled expectations of a revival in big spending and loose monetary policy and reduced bets of interest rate hike by the central back.

 

The dollar index rose to a fresh two-month high in European trade, owing to losses in the euro and the Japanese yen. Growing uncertainty around the extended US government shutdown also supported the US unit. At 1505 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.98, against 98.57 Tuesday and 98.12 Monday. 

 

Tracking the rise in the dollar index, the pound sterling fell 0.4% against the greenback. Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said on Thursday that inflation expectations in the UK remained too high and interest rates should continue to bear down on price pressures. "It is perhaps counterintuitive that in order to create an environment conducive to growth, monetary policy must remain restrictive for longer," Mann said. 

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.3%. The Swiss franc was down 0.2% against the dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Steady as RBI's active dollar sales offset dollar index surge

 

	AT 1320 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7875	88.7400	88.7400	88.7800	88.7975

 

India Rupee: Steady as RBI's active dollar sales offset dollar index surge

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained largely steady against the dollar, hovering near its record low, as some public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which offset the impact of a sharp rise in the dollar index, dealers said. Banks also bought dollars for importers, which exerted downward pressure on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"Continuous importer buying (of dollars) and recent rise in dollar index is putting rupee under pressure," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "But strong selling (of dollars) by the nationalised banks has kept the rupee rangebound. No one knows how long this selling will continue." The rupee has traded in a tight range of just 5 paise so far Thursday.

 

The dollar index rose to a near two-month high in European trade, owing to losses in the pound sterling and Japanese yen. Growing uncertainty around the extended US government shutdown also supported the US unit. At 1320 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.98, against 98.57 Tuesday and 98.12 Monday.

 

The central bank intervened in the spot market, likely to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low, as has been the case in the last few weeks, dealers said. The RBI sold around $2 billion Wednesday to protect the 88.80-a-dollar level, according to some dealers. 

 

Moreover, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who are wary of further depreciation in the rupee, which further weighed on the domestic currency, dealers said. 

 

Some foreign inflows into initial public offerings of domestic companies also supported the domestic currency during the day, according to dealers. LG Electronics India Ltd.'s public offer opened for subscription Tuesday and will close on Thursday. The public offer of Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. will open on Friday and close on Oct. 14, with anchor investment bidding on Thursday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.60 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 9

 

MUMBAI – At 1055 IST, the rupee was at 88.7800 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.7400 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.7975 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.82	88.80	88.72	88.68
Private-sector bank	88.90	88.80	88.60	88.55
Private-sector bank	88.85	88.80	88.72	88.70
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.40	88.20
Brokerage firm	88.85	88.80	88.40	88.20

 

(Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)

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India Rupee:Steady as importers' dollar buys offset impact of dlr index fall

 

	AT 0950 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7600	88.7400	88.7400	88.7800	88.7975

 

India Rupee: Steady as importers' dollar buys offset impact of dlr index fall

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded steady against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, which offset the impact of a fall in the dollar index, dealers said. "The rupee will be range-bound like other days," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "A slight fall in dollar index and optimism around expected foreign inflows for initial public offerings might help."

 

The dollar index came slightly off its two-month high hit on Wednesday, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The dollar index had surged owing to growing uncertainty around the extended US government shutdown, which started last week as Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a budget for the government's new fiscal year. At 0950 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.72, against 98.82 Wednesday and 98.57 Tuesday. The index touched a high of 99.06 on Wednesday. 

 

Importers, particularly gold importers, bought dollars on expectation of depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. However, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India possibly sold dollars in the spot market, like it has in the last few weeks, to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low.

 

The domestic currency is also expected to receive some support during the day from foreign inflows into the IPOs of domestic companies, dealers said. "IPO-related flows can take the market slightly up, other than that there are no major cues," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. A slew of IPOs are lined up this week and the next. LG Electronics India Ltd.'s public offer opened for subscription Tuesday and will close on Thursday. The public offer of Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. will open on Friday and close on Oct. 14, with anchor investment bidding on Thursday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.60 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid US shutdown uncertainty; Thai baht dn 0.3%

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note Thursday amid growing uncertainty around the US government shutdown that started last week. The shutdown started as Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a budget for the government's new fiscal year, and has showed no signs of ending anytime soon. The shutdown has continued for its second week, halting the release of key economic data, which is vital for investors to gauge the rate cut trajectory of the Federal Reserve. 

 

Because of the shutdown, the dollar index jumped to a two-month-high level Wednesday as the uncertainty made investors flock towards safe haven assets, boosting demand for the dollar. The dollar index came off slightly from the two-month high in early trade. At 0900 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.76, against 98.82 Wednesday and 98.57 Tuesday.

 

The Thai baht fell 0.3% against the dollar even after Bank of Thailand unexpectedly kept rates unchanged at 1.50% at its monetary policy meeting Wednesday, against the market expectation of an interest rate cut. Investors expected a 25-basis-point cut as the country's economy grapples with a strengthening baht, negative inflation and US tariffs. The Chinese yuan fell 0.2% against the dollar.

 

The Malaysian ringgit traded steady against the greenback as investors exercised caution ahead of Malaysia's national budget announcement scheduled for Friday. 

 

Tracking softness in the dollar index, the South Korean won rose 0.3% against the greenback while the Taiwan dollar rose 0.2%. The Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso also rose 0.1% against the dollar. 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 9

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.85	88.65
State-owned bank	88.80	88.72
Foreign bank	88.90	88.60
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.50
Brokerage firm	88.88	88.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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