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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – India's wheat acreage is expected to rise 2-4% in the 2025-26 crop year (Jul-Jun), supported by ample monsoon rainfall, high reservoir levels, and assurance of government procurement, government officials and industry experts told Informist. However, the outlook is clouded by the risk of heat stress in Feb-Mar, especially if sowing is delayed due to a late kharif harvest.

 

Experts said farmers are likely to maximise wheat acreage this rabi season, encouraged by robust government support at the minimum support price and additional state-level bonuses. "There is assured purchase from the government at MSP along with bonuses in key states. Also, good soil moisture levels and possibly better soil nutrients after recent flood-like conditions in Punjab and Haryana will drive higher sowing," said the vice-president of grains procurement at an international trading firm, requesting anonymity.

 

The government has increased the minimum support price for wheat in the 2025-26 rabi marketing season (Apr-Mar) by INR 150 to INR 2,425 per 100 kg. To further incentivise farmers, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are offering bonuses over the support price. As a result, the official quoted earlier expects the acreage to rise 3-4% this year.

 

However, the final crop size will largely depend on weather conditions in February and March. If a prolonged monsoon season delays the kharif harvest, wheat sowing may spill over from late October into November. Delayed sowing pushes the grain-filling stage of wheat – when kernels accumulate starch and weight – into late February or March. Ideally, this stage is in the cooler period of January-February, which supports higher yields. Rising temperatures in late February to March could exert stress on the crop, accelerate maturity, and reduce grain weight, sharply reducing yields.

 

Sumit Gupta, Asia chief operating officer at Waseda Global Pvt. Ltd., shared these concerns. "Harvest has been delayed due to extended monsoon this year. Generally, wheat sowing begins towards mid-end October, but this year it is likely to start in November, which may impact production later," he said. For October, the India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal rainfall for the country at 115% of the long-period average. Although the southwest monsoon officially ends on Sept. 30, its withdrawal has stalled currently due to multiple weather systems causing rainfall over central, southern, and eastern India, the weather bureau said Tuesday. The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India may continue beyond Oct. 12, as per the bureau.

 

In terms of acreage, Gupta projected a 2-3% increase, led by Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, wheat could replace a part of the chana area, while in Gujarat, shifts from jeera and chana towards wheat are expected. Rajasthan may see acreage rising for both chana and wheat, supported by abundant soil moisture.

 

While sowing conditions appear favourable, India's wheat production in 2025-26 will hinge on how the weather aligns with the crop's grain-filling stage. Timely planting and cooler temperatures in February will be key to safeguarding yields. Currently, wheat prices at major spot markets are more than INR 2,800 per 100 kg, well above the government-set minimum support prices – further encouraging farmers to expand sowing.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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