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Informist, Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025

 

MUMBAI – Industry participants and experts expect wheat prices to remain steady from the current level with a slightly upward bias in the near term as availability of higher stocks with both the industry and the government is seen offsetting festive demand. 

 

At the Wheat Summit held in Mumbai, experts said they do not see more than a 2.0-2.5% increase in wheat prices from the current level. "...there is no heat left in wheat," said Rajiv Yadav, an agriculture expert, during a panel discussion on Saturday. The overall balance sheet of wheat is comfortable and there is no pressure on wheat as the government's wheat stocks are at a four-year-high, he said. A huge inventory of rice with the government is also controlling prices of all grains, Yadav added.

 

According to data from the Food Corp. of India, the central pool has 33.3 million tonnes of wheat stocks as of Sept. 1, up over 32% on year. The current wheat stocks are well above the buffer norm of 27.58 million tonnes – operational stock of 24.58 million tonnes and strategic reserve of 3.00 million tonnes.

 

Sandeep Bansal, director of Shree Goverdhan Roller Flour Mills Ltd., said he expects wheat prices in Delhi to rise just 2.0-2.5% from the current level to INR 2,900 per 100 kg due to festival demand. This rise is majorly because of the carryover cost.

 

Talking about the minimum support price of wheat for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar), Gaurav Anand, general manager for grains at ITC Ltd.'s agri business division, said it is likely to be around INR 2,600 per 100 kilograms. For the current financial year, the government had set the minimum support price for wheat at INR 2,425 per 100 kg, up from INR 2,275 per 100 kg in the previous year.

 

"...so it (minimum support price of wheat) is going to go up next year (2026-27) also, and it will be around (INR) 2,600 per quintal (100 kg), so that is evident, and because of that, the farmers will get motivated," Anand said.     

 

The panellists also agreed on the fact that the area under wheat is likely to increase in the upcoming rabi season due to increase in the minimum support price and the bonus offered by the state governments. These hopes of higher acreage in the upcoming rabi season are also likely to restrict any rally in wheat prices in the near term.

 

During the 2024-25 (Jul-Jun) rabi season, the area under wheat was up nearly 3% on year at 33 million hectares. Wheat output during the year also rose nearly 4% on year to 117.5 million tonnes, according to the government's third advance estimates.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi and Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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