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Informist, Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

 

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--Oil World CEO: See India's palm oil imports at 1 mln tn in 2025-26 
--CONTEXT: Oil World CEO Thomas Mielke speaking at Globoil India 
--Oil World CEO: See recovery in palm oil output in 2025 
--Oil World CEO: Recovery in palm oil output not likely to continue in 2026 
--Oil World CEO:See India fuelling near-term bullish sentiment for edible oil 
--Oil World CEO: See global soybean stocks continuing to rise in 2025-26 
--Oil World CEO: Premium in sunflower oil to decrease in first 4 mos of 2026 
--Oil World CEO: India needs to import addl 1.5 mln tn of edible oil in 2026 
--Oil World CEO: See global palm, soy oil prices rising $100-$150/tn Jan-Jun

 

MUMBAI – India needs to import an additional 1.5 million tonnes of edible oil in 2026 to meet the rising demand, said Thomas Mielke, the chief executive officer of Oil World at the Globoil event. India is fuelling the near-term bullish sentiment for edible oils, he said. 

 

There is going to be some recovery in palm oil output in 2025 but it is likely to weaken during 2026, Mielke said. This will lead to global palm oil and soyoil prices rising by $100-$150 per tonne during Jan-Jun, he said. India's palm oil imports are seen rising by 1 million tonnes in 2025-26.

 

One uncertainty which could have an impact on exports of palm oil from one of the world's largest exporters, Indonesia, is its B45 blending mandate. If the Indonesian government enforces B45, there is going to be a shortage for exports as most of the oil will be used for biofuel production, he said. Domestic consumption of oil in Indonesia has almost reached the level of exports for the country, he said.

 

Indonesia is considering a B45 or 45% biodiesel programme as an interim step towards B50. The shift towards higher biodiesel blends is part of Indonesia's strategy to use its abundant palm oil resources for energy security and to absorb rising palm oil supply. While the implementation of B40 was planned for Jan. 1, 2025, and the broader B50 goal remains, the B45 blend is being evaluated as a potential intermediate phase.

 

"Probably 2026 will be the first year in which domestic consumption exceeds exports," Mielke said. This is a very alarming development if other palm oil-producing countries cannot compensate for this and if seed oil exports cannot increase sufficiently, prices are likely to increase, he added.

 

Global soybean stocks are seen rising in 2025-26. Soybean stocks in the US will rise to at least 13.5 million tonnes while Chinese demand has fallen, and this is a very bearish factor for soybean. "Overall, the supply situation in oilseeds is comfortable, and we may see additional price declines in oilseed," he said at the event.

 

For soyoil, there is a possibility of soybean prices to move further down. "The new price range, in my opinion, will be between $1,000 (per tonne) and $1,400," Mielke said. Soyoil this week is at a discount to palm oil in Malaysia, which Milke said was not justified and undervalued.

 

Sunflower oil is likely to lose its premium over soybean oil in Jan-Jun 2026, he added.

 

 

For the next 12 months, growth is expected to slow down in world production of 17 oils and fats. This is going to create problems if biodiesel production accelerates in Indonesia, Brazil, and the US. "We expect a consumption increase here by 7 million tonnes and about one third of this, probably half of this consumption growth will be for biofuels, according to our current forecast," Mielke said.  End

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy, J. Navya Sruthi, and Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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