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Informist, Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

By Reshma Ravi

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and COMEX rose Friday owing to strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds and increasing safe-haven demand amid US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs announcement, according to analysts. Market participants await the US personal consumption expenditures data, due later in the day, for further cues on potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year.

At 1644 IST, the most-active October GOLD contract on the MCX was up 0.3% at INR 113,010 per 10 grams. The most-active December gold contract on COMEX was up 0.1% at $3,775.5 per ounce.

Analysts at Commerzbank said many investors are still "jumping on the bandwagon", as suggested by the recent high inflows into gold ETFs. They expect gold prices to be well supported for now, but say "further impetus is needed for new records". "If the US labor market report disappoints for the third time in a row and indicates a noticeable deterioration in the situation, this could be a possible trigger, as the market would then likely price in faster interest rate cuts by the Fed," they said in a report.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, nearly 88% of traders are now pricing in a 25 basis-point rate cut in October, down from 92% a week ago, while 12% expect the Fed funds rate to remain unchanged at 4.00-4.25%. Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed in October have been dampened by better-than-expected US GDP data. Data released Thursday showed US GDP for Apr-Jun increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualised rate, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023 and stronger than the previous estimate of 3.3%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth to be unrevised.

SILVER contracts rose on the MCX and COMEX. At 1653 IST, the most-active December silver contract on the MCX was up 0.6% at INR 137,888 per kilogram. The same-month contract on COMEX was up 0.6% at $45.38 per ounce. "The price of gold may have recently reached a new record high, but the price of silver has actually performed even more impressively. Since the beginning of the year, it has risen by around 56%, outperforming even gold, which has gained 44%," Commerzbank said.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 111,120–INR 114,246 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,691.0–$3,815.7 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 133,434-INR 140,258 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $43.81-$46.43 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 88.72

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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