India Rupee Review
Ends tad down; RBI's persistent intervention limits fall
This story was originally published at 17:18 IST on 26 September 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Sept. 26, 2025
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended slightly lower against the dollar as importers and foreign portfolio investors continued to buy the greenback, dealers said. Broad-based strength in the dollar index also weighed on the local unit, they said. However, losses in the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India actively intervened through dollar sales throughout the day, according to dealers.
"There has been no stopping in terms of negative news flow for the rupee, and we do not know if there will be more. I think 89 (a dollar) is a matter of time," Ritesh Bhansali, deputy chief executive officer at Mecklai Financial Services, said. "What RBI is doing right now is not allowing a one-sided move in the rupee. They are ensuring that the move is gradual."
After trading in a tight range of 6 paise during the day, the Indian unit ended at 88.7175 a dollar on Friday, against 88.6650 on Thursday. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar. The rupee depreciated by over 0.7% against the dollar this week, marking its largest weekly decline in a month.
The Indian unit was trading around 88.7800 a dollar in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market shortly before the opening of the spot market. However, it went on to open steady at 88.6850 a dollar as the RBI stepped in to sell dollars in the offshore NDF market, dealers said.
However, the Indian unit was weighed down as investors' risk appetite took a beating after US President Donald Trump Friday announced a 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical products, effective Oct. 1. The fresh levies will not be applicable to companies that have started constructing their manufacturing plants in the US.
Dampened risk sentiment among investors following the latest tariff announcement prompted FPIs to continue pulling out funds from Indian equities, according to dealers. So far this month, FPIs have withdrawn $502.7 million from domestic equities. On Friday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1% and 0.9% lower, respectively.
Moreover, amid the ongoing tariff worries, importers bought dollars due to fears that the Indian unit may depreciate further in the near term, which also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Some importers also bought the greenback to meet their month-end and quarter-end payment requirements, they said.
"There seems to be no respite for the rupee. There is just one bad news after the other. Only a positive news on the trade deal front can lead to a sustainable rise," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Until then, there are only buyers (of dollars) in the market at every dip (in dollar/rupee)."
The dollar index hovered around a three-week high as expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve this year receded on better-than-expected US economic data Thursday, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.44, against 98.45 Thursday and 97.84 Wednesday. The index rose to 98.61 on Thursday, its highest level since Sept. 3.
However, just like the last two days, the central bank extended its intervention to the spot market as well, and ensured that the Indian unit does not fall to a record low, dealers said. The Indian unit touched a low of 88.7275 during the day, not too far from its lifetime low of 88.7975 on Tuesday. Informist reported earlier in the day, citing currency dealers, that the central bank is said to have sold almost $5 billion in the last two days to prevent a sharp fall in the rupee.
"Seems like we are back to a tight range for rupee, like last year. If this kind of intervention continues next week as well, the market may start running light on long (dollar) positions," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Meanwhile, the commerce ministry Friday said that an Indian delegation led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met US officials earlier this week, where the two sides discussed the bilateral trade agreement. Both sides decided to continue engagements for the "early conclusion of a mutually beneficial trade agreement," the ministry said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.7175 | 88.6850 | 88.6650 | 88.7275 | 88.6650 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 206.50 | 210.00 | 210.50 | 206.00 | 210.31 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended lower on Friday, as the RBI likely sold dollars for near-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avoid draining rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank is likely to have sold dollars for one- to two-month forward delivery, some dealers said. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
Furthermore, US Treasury yields rose after traders pared their bets on sharp rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following stronger-than-expected economic data, which also weighed on the premiums, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair reflect the interest rate differential between the two countries.
Data released Thursday showed that US GDP for Apr-Jun increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualised rate, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023 and stronger than the previous estimate of 3.3%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth to be unrevised.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.33%, against the previous close of 2.37%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 206.50 paise, against 210.31 paise Thursday.
OUTLOOK
On Monday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, on Friday, dealers said. "When the dollar was weakening, the rupee was the underperformer (versus peers), and now, when the dollar will start going up, we will be outperformers. That has always happened and will continue this time as well," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "If RBI decides to give up its strong hold, 89 (a dollar) will happen in a go."
Market participants will closely watch out for developments related to India-US trade talks and US tariffs. They expect weak risk appetite, stemming from US tariffs, to continue weighing on the rupee.
Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, wary of a further fall in the rupee, exerting downward pressure on the local unit. However, noting the central bank's resolute intervention this week, they expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent the rupee from inching closer to the psychologically-crucial level of 89.00 a dollar.
The rupee is expected to move within a range of 88.60 to 88.90 against the dollar, with immediate technical support for the rupee pegged at 88.80 per dollar.
India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index strong on receding Fed rate cut bets
| AT 1520 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3365 | 1.3370 | 1.3330 | 1.3327 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1683 | 1.1684 | 1.1659 | 1.1656 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5765 | 0.5771 | 0.5756 | 0.5763 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6532 | 0.6545 | 0.6526 | 0.6533 |
| USD/JPY | 149.6970 | 149.9530 | 149.6190 | 149.7690 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3943 | 1.3948 | 1.3935 | 1.3935 |
| EUR/JPY | 174.8900 | 175.0350 | 174.6000 | 174.4530 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2512 | 1.2522 | 1.2488 | 1.2483 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9336 | 0.9342 | 0.9326 | 0.9330 |
MUMBAI – The dollar index hovered around a three-week high after stronger-than-expected US economic data led to expectations that the Federal Reserve would be more cautious about cutting interest rates going ahead. Data released Thursday showed that US GDP for Apr-Jun revised upward to an annualised rate of 3.8%, from the previous estimate of 3.3% and the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023. Economists polled by Reuters did not expect a revision in the GDP growth.
Moreover, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 20 declined to 218,000 from the previous reading of 232,000 and below the market consensus of 235,000. At 1520 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.36, against 98.45 Thursday and 97.84 Wednesday. The index had risen to 98.61 on Thursday, its highest level since Sept. 3.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 87.7% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October, with a 12.3% probability of status quo, CME FedWatch showed. Market participants now await release of the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, on Friday for more cues on policy easing by the Fed this year.
The Japanese yen was steady against the greenback after the Tokyo core consumer price index was unchanged in September and stayed well above the central bank's 2% target. The Tokyo core consumer price index, which excludes volatile prices of fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.5% in September from a year earlier, slower than a median market forecast of 2.8%.
The Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.60% in its policy meeting on Tuesday, as the labour market remains tight and policymakers wait to see firm signs that inflation is easing. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback.
The euro and pound sterling rose 0.1% against the greenback. European Central Bank's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey on Friday showed Euro zone consumers' median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 2.8% in August from 2.6% a month earlier. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Fwd premium falls as US yields up on receding Fed rate cut bets
| AT 1355 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.6950 | 88.6850 | 88.6650 | 88.7275 | 88.6650 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 206.00 | 210.00 | 210.50 | 206.00 | 210.31 |
NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium fell on Friday as US Treasury yields rose after traders pared bets of sharp rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following stronger than expected economic data, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
"The recieving is mostly because of the US data. I think the October rate cut (by the Fed) is pretty much in the picture but if there is more good data coming, December rate cut may not be a sure shot bet," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
Data released Thursday showed that US GDP for Apr-Jun increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualised rate, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023 and stronger than the previous estimate of 3.3%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth to be unrevised. Moreover, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 20 declined to 218,000 from the previous reading of 232,000. Reuters' poll had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week.
Following the economic data, the 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.18% Thursday from 4.16% Wednesday. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 87.7% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps in October, with a 12.3% probability of status quo, CME FedWatch showed. Market participants now await release of the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, on Friday for more cues on policy easing by the Fed this year.
Further, some traders sold forward dollars on expectation that the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee may go for a 25 bps rate cut at its meeting next week. In a poll by Informist, majority of the economists said the rate-setting panel is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday. However, four of the 15 economists polled said they expected a 25-bps rate cut.
At 1355 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.32%, against the previous close of 2.37%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 206.00 paise, against 210.31 paise Thursday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: In thin band; RBI active dlr sales offset FPIs, importers' buys
| AT 1330 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.6825 | 88.6850 | 88.6650 | 88.7250 | 88.6650 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was in a narrow range against the dollar Friday as the Reserve Bank of India's likely active intervention through dollar sales offset the impact of banks' dollar buys for importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. So far on Friday, the rupee has traded in a range of just 6 paise.
"The rupee is trading in a tight-range today. There is enough demand from importers, but continuous selling (of dollars) by nats (nationalised banks) has capped the fall of the rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
Dealers said the central bank persistently intervened through dollar sales in the spot market, which prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low against the dollar. The Indian currency fell to a lifetime low of 88.7975 a dollar on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the RBI likely sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards markets as well, dealers said.
The rupee also came under downward pressure as investors' risk sentiment was dampened after US President Donald Trump Friday announced 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical products, effective Oct. 1. Weak risk appetite prompted FPIs to pull out funds from domestic equities, dealers said. At 1330 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.4?ch.
Moreover, the dollar index hovered around a three-week high as better-than-expected US economic data dampened expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve this year, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1330 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.44, against 98.45 Thursday and 97.84 Wednesday. The index rose to 98.61 on Thursday, its highest level since Sept. 3.
Amid the ongoing tariff worries, importers bought dollars in fear the Indian unit may depreciate further in the near term, which also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Some importers also bought the greenback to meet their month-end and quarter-end payment requirements, they said.
During the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.60 a dollar, and support at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 26
MUMBAI – At 1140 IST, the rupee was at 88.7075 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6850 a dollar, against its previous close of 88.6650 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 88.90 | 88.80 | 88.60 | 88.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 88.90 | 88.80 | 88.60 | 88.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.20 | 89.00 | 88.50 | 88.40 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.90 | 88.80 | 88.20 | 88.00 |
(Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Tad down on Trump's pharma tariffs; RBI's dlr sales in NDF aid
| AT 1000 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.7025 | 88.6850 | 88.6650 | 88.7250 | 88.6650 |
India Rupee: Tad down on Trump's pharma tariffs; RBI's dlr sales in NDF aid
MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar due to weak risk appetite among investors after US President Donald Trump Friday announced tariffs on pharmaceutical products, dealers said. A rise in the dollar index to an over three-week high also weighed on the local unit, they said.
However, losses in the Indian currency were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards markets before the opening of the spot market, dealers said. Shortly before the domestic spot market opened, the rupee traded at around 88.78 a dollar in the offshore NDF market, but went on to open at 88.6850 in the spot market. Some dealers speculated that the central bank might have been selling dollars in the spot market as well, as has been the case in the last few days.
"Currently it (the rupee) is trading steady, there was severe intervention in the NDF market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Let's see if any FPI (foreign portfolio investors) demand (for dollars) comes in because of the tariff announcement, then we can see fall to 88.90 (a dollar) levels."
Trump announced the imposition of 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical products, effective Oct. 1. However, the fresh levies will not be applicable to companies that have started constructing their manufacturing plants in the US.
Further, the dollar index rose sharply after strong US economic data led to expectations that the Federal Reserve would be more cautious about cutting interest rates. Data released Thursday showed that US GDP for Apr-Jun increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualised rate, stronger than the previous estimate of 3.3%.
Moreover, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 20 declined to 218,000 from the previous reading of 232,000 and below the market consensus of 235,000. At 1000 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.36, against 98.45 Thursday and 97.84 Wednesday.
A fall in other Asian currencies also exerted downward pressure on the domestic currency, dealers said. Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the dollar, with the Thai baht being the worst hit.
A fall in domestic equities post Trump's pharma tariffs announcement, also weighed on the local unit, according to dealers. At 1000 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.4%, mainly driven by pharma stocks.
During the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.60 a dollar, and support at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down on strong dlr index, Trump's pharma tariffs
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Friday as the dollar index rose to an over three-week-high after key US economic data dampened expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the future. US US President Donald Trump's latest announcement of tariffs on pharmaceutical products also weighed on the Asian units.
Data released Thursday showed US GDP for Apr-Jun expanded at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualised rate, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023 and stronger than the previous estimate of 3.3%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth to be unrevised. Moreover, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 20 declined to 218,000 from the previous reading of 232,000 and below the market consensus of 235,000.
Trump on Friday announced a 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical products, effective Oct. 1. The fresh levies will not be applicable to companies that have started constructing their manufacturing plants in the US. At 0905 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.39, against 98.45 Thursday and 97.84 Wednesday. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.4% against the greenback, the most amongst its Asian peers, while the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.3%. The Philippine peso fell 0.2% against the dollar and the Thai baht was down 0.1%.
The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1% against the greenback after Bank Indonesia's governor early Friday said the central bank was committed to maintaining the rupiah's stability by using all available instruments "boldly", including continued intervention in the offshore and onshore non-deliverable forward markets.
The South Korean won fell 0.1% against the greenback even as the country's President Lee Jae Myung Friday announced that South Korea plans to open its currency market for around-the-clock trading, to give easier access to foreign investors. Lee said the government would also address, in the near future, the lack of an offshore won market. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 26
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 88.90 | 88.55 |
| Private-sector bank | 89.00 | 88.60 |
| Private-sector bank | 88.80 | 88.60 |
| Foreign bank | 89.00 | 88.60 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.86 | 88.67 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.90 | 88.50 |
(Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Saji George Titus
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