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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The soybean seed industry is likely to be in a bigger crisis in 2025-26 (Jul-Jun) than last year, said Manish Gupta, managing director, Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd. at the Globoil event Thursday. Soybean output is likely to be at 10 million tonnes in the current season, significantly lower from the previous year's output of 13–14 million tonnes due to excess rainfall, Gupta said in a panel discussion.

 

In the current kharif season, major soybean growing states like Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra received excess rain. This is likely to cause damage to the crop and delay the harvest of the current soybean crop in fields, Gupta said. "...the crop will be damaged, will be delayed, not coming before Diwali."

 

During the year-ago period, India had started the oil year with 13-14 million tonnes of soybean, which also includes carryover stock from the previous year, Gupta said. India had 1.1 million tonnes of carryover stock in 2024-25, which is lower than 2 million tonnes seen in the previous year. The government's third advance estimate for 2024-25 shows India's soybean output was up 16% on year at 15.2 million tonnes.  

 

But the scenario has completely changed this year as there are no carryover stocks from last year, Gupta said. "We will have zero carryover stock for soybean by the end of September," he added. The soybean industry is likely to face challenges in the current year compared with other oilseeds, Gupta said.
 

The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India and the National Cooperative Consumers Federation of India were holding close to 2 million tonnes of soybean in 2024-25, which was bought at the minimum support price of INR 4,892 per 100 kg. The government has been able to sell 2 million tonnes soybean in less than 3 months, he said, adding, "so, that is showing that the Indian industry is consuming soybean meal at a much faster pace."

 

Further, higher moisture content in the soybean seed, which is around 25% due to heavy showers, will also delay the crushing process, he said. Usually, the moisture content should not exceed 14%. The minimum support price of soybean for 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) is also higher by nearly 9% on year at INR 5,328 per 100 kilograms, which will push market prices higher. "These factors are likely to boost the demand for imported soybean oil," Gupta said.

 

In the first 10 months of 2024-25 (Nov-Oct), 3.9 million tonnes soyoil was imported, up from 2.7 million tonnes in the previous year. The rise in soyoil imports was on the back of a cut on import duty by the Indian government and lower prices globally. On May 30, the Indian government slashed the import duty on major crude edible oils such as soybean, palm, and sunflower oil to 16.5% from 27.5% to help control rising cooking oil prices. The basic customs duty was cut from 20% to 10%, with the reduction also accounting for the agriculture infrastructure and development cess and the social welfare surcharge.

 

Commenting about soymeal, Gupta said India requires around 9.0-9.5 million tonnes of soymeal for domestic consumption and exports. However, the total soybean output is seen to be around 10 million tonnes. "So, we will have to curtail our exports for soybean meal," he said.

 

According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, the country during Apr-Jul exported 676,992 tonnes, down from 692,021 tonnes in the year-ago period.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi and Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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