India Rupee Review
Steady as RBI's active doller sales offset importers' buys
This story was originally published at 17:01 IST on 25 September 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025
By Rati Chaphekar
MUMBAI – The rupee ended broadly steady against the greenback as the Reserve Bank of India's active dollar sales ensured the impact of importers' dollar buys was nullified, dealers said. Some exporters' dollar sales also provided cushion to the Indian currency, they said.
"The rangebound move (in the rupee) continued today as well as RBI held it (rupee). There was no major break on either side of the range. It seems like a major trigger is needed for that now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. After trading in a range of only 10 paise during the day, the Indian unit closed at 88.6650 a dollar, against 88.6900 on Wednesday.
The Indian unit opened slightly higher against the dollar as the central bank likely sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, just like Wednesday, right before the spot market opened, according to dealers. Shortly before the spot market opened, the rupee was trading around 88.75 a dollar in the offshore NDF market.
However, as soon as the Indian unit touched the day's high of 88.5975, importers rushed to buy dollars to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee fell to a record low of 88.7975 on Tuesday.
The Indian unit was also weighed down by a rise in the dollar index on growing expectations of a measured easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve after a cautious tone by Fed officials, dealers said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech Tuesday struck a cautious tone on further easing, saying the Fed needed to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in coming rate decisions. Some other Fed officials have also maintained a similar stance on easing in recent times.
Moreover, data Wednesday showed sales of new US single-family homes surged 20.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 800,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a drop to 650,000 units. July sales were revised upward to 664,000 units from the 652,000 previously reported. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.78, against 97.84 Wednesday and 97.22 Tuesday.
However, the central bank marked its presence in the spot market as well, and sold dollars to ensure the Indian unit does not depreciate throughout the day, according to dealers. "There was nothing much in the market, RBI was present all day. It has been two days that RBI is capping the rupee. No idea how long this will continue," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. On Wednesday, the RBI likely sold around $1.0 billion-$1.5 billion in the spot market, according to dealers.
Noting the RBI's active intervention, some banks also sold dollars on behalf of exporters, which supported the Indian currency, dealers said. However, volumes in the currency market were lacklustre as traders refrained from placing large bets due to uncertainty around the outlook for the Indian unit, in light of the recent active intervention by the central bank. "Today was a pretty dull day. Any dollar buying was immediately capped by selling (of dollars) by nationalised banks. That kept the volumes low too," a dealer at another state-owned bank said.
A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the local unit, according to dealers. On Thursday, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.7% lower each.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.6650 | 88.6200 | 88.5975 | 88.7000 | 88.6900 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 210.31 | 209.77 | 210.77 | 208.06 | 208.71 |
FORWARDS
Dollar/rupee forward premiums ended higher across tenures as some banks purchased dollars for forward delivery, likely to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between the onshore forwards and offshore non-deliverable forwards rates, dealers said. Banks executed sell/buy swaps--sell for immediate delivery and buy for delivery later--in the onshore forwards market, noting a rise in premiums in the offshore NDF market, dealers said.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose Wednesday on growing expectations of a measured easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve after a cautious tone from Fed officials, which limited gains for the premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.16% Wednesday against 4.12% Tuesday. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
Market participants now await release of the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, on Friday and the final estimate for second quarter GDP on Thursday, for cues on policy easing by the Fed this year. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.37%, against the previous close of 2.34%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 210.31 paise against 208.71 paise Wednesday.
OUTLOOK
On Friday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of third estimate US Apr-Jun GDP data, dealers said. The movement in other Asian currencies may also guide the direction of the Indian currency, they said. Market participants will keenly watch developments in the India-US trade talks.
Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, wary of a further fall in the rupee, exerting downward pressure on the local unit. Most market participants expect weak risk appetite on the back of high US tariffs on Indian goods and a recent hike in the H-1B visa fee to continue weighing on the rupee.
However, they expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent the rupee from inching closer to the psychologically crucial level of 89.00 a dollar. "A lot depends on how long RBI will be in the market. They seem to be going for slow depreciation (in rupee)," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. "But nobody has any clue on how long the hold will continue."
On Friday, the rupee is expected to move within a range of 88.50 to 88.90 against the dollar, with immediate technical support for the rupee pegged at 88.80 per dollar.
India Rupee - World FX: Swiss franc steady as central bk holds rates; yen dn
| AT 1530 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3448 | 1.3467 | 1.3434 | 1.3447 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1746 | 1.1754 | 1.1731 | 1.1738 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5823 | 0.5831 | 0.5808 | 0.5814 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6597 | 0.6604 | 0.6583 | 0.6579 |
| USD/JPY | 148.7810 | 148.8600 | 148.5600 | 148.7880 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3891 | 1.3902 | 1.3886 | 1.3895 |
| EUR/JPY | 174.7500 | 174.8700 | 174.5020 | 174.6500 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2565 | 1.2589 | 1.2549 | 1.2575 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9346 | 0.9350 | 0.9333 | 0.9332 |
India Rupee - World FX: Swiss franc steady as central bank holds rates; yen down
MUMBAI – The Swiss franc was steady against the greenback after the Swiss National Bank held its key interest rate at zero Thursday, in line with market expectations, and the lowest among major central banks. After it started reducing borrowing costs in March 2024, this is the first time it has held rates steady in seven meetings.
The dollar index rose on growing expectations of a measured easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve after a cautious tone from Fed officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing in his speech Tuesday, saying the Fed needed to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in coming rate decisions. Some other Fed officials have also maintained a similar stance on easing rates in recent times.
Moreover, data released Wednesday showed sales of new US single-family homes surged 20.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 800,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a drop to 650,000 units. Sales in July were revised upward to 664,000 units from the previously reported 652,000. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.80, against 97.84 Wednesday and 97.22 Tuesday.
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% against the greenback even after minutes of the July meeting Thursday showed some Bank of Japan board members called for resuming interest rate hikes in the future, even as the board decided unanimously to keep borrowing costs steady. The central bank kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% in its September policy meeting.
The pound sterling was steady against the greenback even after Bank of England monetary policy committee member Megan Greene late Wednesday said risks have grown that inflation in the UK will prove stronger than the central bank has forecast, meriting a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts. The euro, too, was broadly steady against the greenback. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar rose 0.2% against the greenback. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Premiums up on fwd dollar buys for onshore-offshore arbitrage
| AT 1435 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.6775 | 88.6200 | 88.5975 | 88.7000 | 88.6900 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 210.77 | 209.77 | 210.77 | 208.06 | 208.71 |
India Rupee: Premiums up on fwd dollar buys for onshore-offshore arbitrage
NEW DELHI – Dollar/rupee forward premiums rose across tenures as some banks purchased dollars for forward delivery, likely to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between the onshore forwards and offshore non-deliverable forwards rates, dealers said.
"Offshore points have risen a bit so some paying came from that. But I think these levels will not last," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. Banks executed sell/buy swaps--sell for immediate delivery and buy for delivery later--in the onshore forwards market, noting a rise in premiums in the offshore NDF market, dealers said.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose Wednesday on growing expectations of a measured easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve after a cautious tone from Fed officials, which limited gains for the premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.16% Wednesday against 4.12% Tuesday. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
Market participants now await release of the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, on Friday and the final estimate for second quarter GDP on Thursday, for cues on policy easing by the Fed this year. At 1435 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.38%, against the previous close of 2.34%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 210.77 paise against 208.71 paise Wednesday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Steady as RBI's likely dollar sales offset importers' dlr buys
| AT 1405 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.6950 | 88.6200 | 88.6000 | 88.6625 | 88.6900 |
MUMBAI – The rupee erased most gains and was broadly steady against the greenback as the Reserve Bank of India's likely dollar sales offset the impact of dollar buys by importers. The Indian unit has traded in a tight range of 10 paise so far during the day. "It doesn't look like any large buying (of dollars) is there at the moment," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "So, demand and supply (of dollars) on both the sides is offsetting each other."
The rupee had touched a high of 88.5975 earlier in the day as the central bank is likely to have intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened. However, it erased most of its initial gains as banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said.
However, the RBI likely sold dollars through state-owned banks, which prevented the local unit from depreciating, dealers said. The central bank had intervened in the spot market on Tuesday as well, according to dealers. Noting the central bank's intervention, some banks also stepped in to sell dollars for exporters, which also aided the Indian unit, they said.
Dealers said volume in the currency market was lower than usual as most traders refrained from placing large bets due to uncertainty about the future direction of the Indian unit, noting the central bank's recent active interventions. "The importers are waiting for it (the rupee) to rise and exporters are waiting for it (the rupee) to fall," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "This uncertainty has kept both the sides away from the market."
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.50 a dollar, and support at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 25
MUMBAI – At 1138 IST, the rupee was at 88.6650 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6200 a dollar, against its previous close of 88.6900 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | 89.00 | 88.40 | 88.20 | 88.10 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.20 | 89.00 | 88.60 | 88.40 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.00 | 88.90 | 88.50 | 88.30 |
(Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Rises as RBI likely sells dollars in offshore NDF market
| AT 0945 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.6325 | 88.6200 | 88.6000 | 88.6625 | 88.6900 |
India Rupee: Rises as RBI likely sells dollars in offshore NDF market
MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar Thursday as banks sold dollars in the offshore NDF market, likely on behalf of the Reserve bank of India, dealers said. Just before the domestic spot market opened, the domestic unit was trading at around 88.76 a dollar in the offshore NDF market. However, the Indian unit opened at 88.6200 a dollar in the spot market, likely due to the RBI's intervention, they said.
"Looks like it (the rupee) will continue hovering around 88.65-88.75 levels. I expect RBI's intervention to be the same as yesterday (Wednesday)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. According to dealers, the RBI is likely to have sold around $1.0 billion-$1.5 billion in the spot market on Wednesday, which prevented the rupee from falling to a lifetime low. Some dealers speculated that the central bank was possibly intervening in the spot market on Thursday as well.
Meanwhile, the Indian unit was weighed down by a rise in the dollar index on growing expectations of a measured easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve after a cautious tone by Fed officials, dealers said. A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the domestic currency. Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.8% against the dollar, with the Philippine peso being the worst hit. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.76, against 97.84 Wednesday and 97.22 Tuesday.
Dealers expect banks to step in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which may cap the rise in the rupee. The rupee has come under downward pressure this month, hitting a lifetime low of 88.7975 on Tuesday, as investors' risk appetite has taken a hit due to uncertainty about the India-US trade deal and a hefty hike in the fee for new H-1B visas by the US.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.60 a dollar, and support at 88.90. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed ahead of US econ data; Philippine peso dn 0.9%
MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Thursday as investors await US economic data this week for cues on policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures report, is due Friday and the final estimate for second quarter GDP growth is due later in the day.
Data on Wednesday showed sales of new US single-family homes surged in August by 20.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 800,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a drop to 650,000 units. July sales were revised upward to 664,000 units from the 652,000 previously reported. The dollar index rose Wednesday on rising expectations of a measured easing cycle in the US after Fed Chair Jerome Powell Tuesday struck a cautious tone on further rate cuts, which weighed on the Asian currencies.
At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.76, against 97.84 Wednesday and 97.22 Tuesday. Tracking a rise in the dollar index, the Indonesian rupiah fell 0.4% against the dollar while the Taiwan dollar and the Thai baht fell 0.3% and 0.2% against the dollar, respectively.
The Philippine peso fell 0.9% against the greenback after data Wednesday showed the country's budget deficit widened in August as the country's revenues fell faster than its spending. The gap increased 56% on year to $1.4 billion. It increased fourfold compared to July.
The Chinese yuan rose 0.1% against the dollar after a senior official said on Thursday that the central bank would roll out further measures to support the development of Chinese yuan bonds in Hong Kong and accelerate the global use of its currency.
The South Korean won rose 0.3% against the dollar as the country's finance minister held talks with his US counterpart in New York Wednesday to discuss an unlimited currency swap with the US to fulfil its pledge to form a $350-billion US investment fund. The $350-billion package of investment from South Korea was agreed to in principle between Seoul and Washington in July, as part of a deal to lower tariffs against South Korean goods. The Malaysian ringgit traded steady against the greenback. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 25
Informist, Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 88.85 | 88.60 |
| State-owned bank | 88.90 | 88.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 88.90 | 88.60 |
| Foreign bank | 88.90 | 88.60 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.90 | 88.50 |
(Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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