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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

 

NEW DELHI – Kharif sowing for the crop year 2025-26 (Jul-Jun) has nearly closed with acreage at 102% of the "normal" area as of Sept. 19, registering a 1.4% on-year increase. While the progress signals comfortable output for rice and coarse cereals, weather risks, including possible unseasonal rains from a developing La Nina climate pattern, could weigh on the final harvest, according to analysts.

 

Sowing for major crops such as rice, coarse cereals, pulses, and oilseeds has nearly been completed. Overall acreage growth is unlikely to change materially in the coming weeks, with only a few minor crops left to be sown. Rice acreage has seen a healthy rise of 2% over last year, while acreage of coarse cereals has posted a sharper 6.8% increase. Acreage under pulses is up a modest 0.8%, but the area under oilseeds has slipped 2.7%, raising concerns over their supply outlook. The trends point to a comfortable output of rice and coarse grains, but some pulses like tur, moong, and moth beans, along with oilseeds such as sesame, sunflower and soybean, are projected to see weaker growth.

 

Weather uncertainties add another dimension to the outlook, as erratic rainfall in the latter part of the season and reports of crop damage from flooding in parts of northwest India could undermine overall production, Aastha Gudwani, India chief economist at Barclays, said in a note. As per the India Meteorological Department, conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some more parts of northwest and central India. But in the upcoming week, it still expects rainfall activity to be "above normal" over the central and peninsular regions and "normal to above normal" over most parts of northwest and east India, indicating continued surplus rainfall in what is supposed to be the last week of the season. 

 

Moreover, the weather bureau has highlighted increased likelihood of La Nina conditions developing in the post-monsoon period. Such a shift could bring unseasonal and excessive rainfall, potentially disrupting the harvest season and adding volatility to supplies. The APEC Climate Center has also, in its monthly climate outlook report, suggested that La Nina conditions are likely to develop during Oct-Dec. There is an "enhanced" probability of above-normal rainfall in India from October to December, the agency based in Busan, South Korea, said.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought-like conditions.  End

 

Reported by Pallavi Singhal

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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