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Informist, Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

 

By Gowri Lakshmi

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar as banks sold dollars, likely for foreign fund inflows and a few exporters, which offset the persistent dollar purchases by importers and rise of the dollar index, dealers said. The rupee had hit a one-week low during the day because of dollar purchases by importers.

 

"These levels are attractive for some exporters (to sell dollars), most are waiting. Heard some flow-related (dollar) sales by foreign banks, that was the sudden rise in rupee today," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

After falling to a low of 88.3325, the rupee pared the losses and ended at 88.0900 against the dollar, broadly steady from its previous close of 88.1275. During the day, the Indian unit moved in a relatively wider range of over 26 paise.

 

Most other Asian currencies fell against the dollar as the dollar index bounced back from an over three-year low on diminished hopes of aggressive easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.6%, with the South Korean won being the worst hit followed by the Indonesian rupiah.

 

The rupee opened the day lower against the dollar at 88.2125 due to a relatively stronger dollar index after investors assessed the US Federal Open Market Committee's decision. The US currency began paring losses from its lows on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve hinted at a less-aggressive rate-cut outlook and signalled little urgency for further easing of the borrowing costs. The US Fed Wednesday lowered the federal funds futures target range by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%.

 

The dollar also got a boost from fall in jobless claims for the week ended Saturday. Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000. Economists polled by Reuters had pegged the claims at 240,000. In the previous week, unemployment claims had jumped to a near four-year high of 264,000.

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.53, against 97.36 Thursday and 97.02 Wednesday.

 

Most importers aggressively bought dollars fearing a further depreciation in the rupee in the coming weeks, dealers said. Expecting a 50 bps rate cut by the US Fed and further weakening in the US currency, a segment of the market had remained short on the US dollar, dealers said. After the FOMC outcome, they began unwinding their short dollar positions to place fresh long bets on the US currency.

 

However, noting the fall of the rupee, a few exporters sold dollars to take advantage of the relatively higher dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. They also said the rupee started paring losses as banks sold the greenback for foreign fund inflows, likely relating to the rebalancing of the FTSE All-World Index, which will come into effect Monday. FTSE Russell announced the addition of eight Indian stocks to its FTSE All-World Index as part of its periodic index review.

 

A few dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India also sold dollars around 88.30 a dollar levels, to prevent the rupee from falling further. "Seems like the RBI hit the markets today, 88.30 is a support level, and they probably sold dollars to prevent a descent to 88.50 this soon," a dealer at another private-sector bank said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.0900	88.2125	88.0600	88.3325	88.1275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	206.87	207.41	208.47	206.87	208.23

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended lower Friday tracking a rise in yields of US Treasury notes, dealers said. Noting the sudden fall of rupee in the spot market, a few exporters also sold dollars for forward delivery, further exerting pressure on the premium level, dealers said. However, forward dollar purchases by importers limited the fall, dealers said.

 

On Thursday, the yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury note rose 5 basis points to 4.11% as fears of a slowing US labour market diminished after a fall in unemployment benefit claims.

 

However, the fall in dollar/rupee premium levels was limited as importers purchased forward dollars, dealers said. Dealers peg 2.45% as the key technical support and 2.20% as the key technical resistance for the one-year forward dollar/rupee premium. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.35%, against the previous close of 2.36%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 206.87 paise against 208.23 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

Rupee is not traded Saturday. On Monday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the dollar index and crude oil prices, dealers said. Traders will also closely watch for any developments in India's trade talks with Washington. Dealers expect the rupee to fall further as importers are likely to purchase dollars, fearing a sharp fall of the Indian unit.

 

However, should the rupee inch toward the crucial level of 88.50 a dollar, dealers expect exporters to sell dollars to take advantage of the relatively higher dollar/rupee levels. Dealers also expect the RBI to step in with dollar sales to slow the pace of rupee's depreciation.

 

On Monday, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.10 to 88.40 against the dollar, with dealers pegging key technical support for the rupee at 88.35 a dollar.

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India Rupee - World FX: Sterling falls on high UK public borrowing, yen up

 

	AT 1450 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3502	1.3559	1.3483	1.3554
EUR/USD	1.1767	1.1792	1.1751	1.1785
NZD/USD	0.5876	0.5891	0.5855	0.5882
AUD/USD	0.6608	0.6619	0.6588	0.6612
USD/JPY	147.7600	148.1120	147.2020	147.9320
USD/CAD	1.3809	1.3820	1.3789	1.3794
EUR/JPY	173.8850	174.4950	173.4820	174.3440
CHF/USD	1.2585	1.2625	1.2569	1.2594
EUR/CHF	0.9349	0.9355	0.9336	0.9331

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling fell 0.5% against the greenback after data Friday showed the public sector borrowing in the UK stood at $113.39 billion in Apr-Aug, much higher than the projections by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The Bank of England Thursday kept its key interest rate steady at 4%, in line with market expectations, after a 25-basis-point cut last month. The Swiss franc fell 0.3% against the greenback. 

 

The Japanese yen rose 0.1% against the dollar after the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate steady at 0.5% Friday. The decision was widely anticipated as the economy appears to be weathering the hit from US tariffs. Further, data Friday showed core consumer prices in Japan rose 2.7% on year in August, staying above the central bank's 2% goal, but marking the slowest pace in nine months. 

 

The dollar index continued its uptick as the US Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday reduced the key policy rates by only 25 bps, as expected, and hinted at little urgency for further cuts. 

 

Further, initial jobless claims for the week ended Saturday also supported the dollar as the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment fell, paring the previous week's rise. The initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Saturday. In the previous week, claims had soared to 264,000, a high last seen in October 2021.

 

At 1450 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.54, against 97.36 Thursday and up from 97.02 Wednesday. The index rebounded on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since 2022. 

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the dollar after data Thursday showed employment fell by 5,400 in August from July, when it rose to a revised 26,500. This was far below market forecasts of a gain of 21,500, according to a report by Reuters. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.2?ter data Thursday showed the country's GDP growth fell 0.9% in the June quarter from the trailing quarter, worse than the forecast of a 0.3?ll by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: One-year forward premium falls tracking rise in US yields

 

	AT 1252 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.1850	88.2125	88.1500	88.3325	88.1275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	206.91	207.41	208.47	206.87	208.23

 

India Rupee: One-year forward premium falls tracking rise in US yields

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium fell Friday tracking a rise in yields of US Treasury notes, dealers said. Noting the sudden fall of rupee in the spot market, a few exporters also sold dollars for forward delivery, further exerting pressure on the premium level, dealers said. However, forward dollar purchases by importers limited the fall, dealers said.

 

"Market is pretty lukewarm right now, no direction. It's the interest rate differential playing out now. There is receiving (by exporters) and paying (by importers) but they are not aggressive either," a currency trader at a broking firm said. 

 

The yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury note rose 5 basis points to 4.11% Thursday as fears of a slowing US labour market diminished with a fall in unemployment benefits claims for last week. The initial jobless claims for the week ended Saturday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment fell 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000. Economists polled by Reuters saw the claims at 240,000. Unemployment claims had jumped to a near four-year high of 264,000 in the previous week.

 

The rupee's sudden fall in the spot market prompted exporters to sell dollars for forward delivery, which further weighed on the forward dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee hit a one-week low of 88.3325 against the greenback due to a rebound in the US dollar after the US Federal Open Market Committee signalled a less aggressive rate outlook and little urgency to lower rates further. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between two countries.

 

However, the fall in dollar/rupee premium levels were limited as importers purchased forward dollars, dealers said. Dealers peg 2.45% as the key technical support and 2.20% as the key technical resistance for the one-year forward dollar/rupee premium.

 

At 1313 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.35%, against the previous close of 2.36%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 206.91 paise against 208.23 paise Thursday.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee: At 1-week low on importers' dollar purchases, rise in dlr index

 

	AT 1141 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.3050	88.2125	88.1800	88.3325	88.1275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee hit a one-week low against the dollar Friday as banks persistently purchased dollars likely on behalf of importers, dealers said. Strength in the dollar index also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers added. The rupee fell to a low of 88.3325 against the greenback, its lowest level since Sept. 12. 

 

"No major trigger points now, importers are in panic because we saw how FOMC turned out. The dollar is strengthening when some of them expected rupee to sustain the gains," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee was weighed as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, fearing a further depreciation in the rupee amid strengthening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve's policy outcome this week, dealers said. The dollar pared some of its losses and began rebounding from its over three-year low it hit Wednesday as the US Federal Open Market Committee signalled at little urgency for further rate cuts and hinted at a less-aggressive rate-cut outlook. 

 

The US FOMC Wednesday lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%. Further, the dollar was also supported by easing worries about the US labour market as the latest initial jobless claims data showed a fall in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended Saturday fell 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 claims for the latest week. In the previous week, unemployment claims had jumped to a near four-year high of 264,000. 

 

At 1153 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.43, against 97.36 Thursday and 97.02 Wednesday. The index began rebounding on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since 2022. 

 

However, dealers said despite the fall of the rupee, most exporters remained on the sidelines and did not sell dollars, as they anticipate further depreciation of the rupee, which is expected to breach 88.50 per dollar level.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.10 and 88.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg key technical support for the rupee at 88.35 a dollar.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 19

 

MUMBAI – At 1040 IST, the rupee was at 88.3025 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.2125 a dollar, against its previous close of 88.1275. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	88.45	88.44	88.13	88.12
Private-sector bank	88.44	88.40	88.20	88.15
Brokerage firm	88.50	88.40	88.20	88.00
Brokerage firm	88.40	88.30	88.10	88.00

 

(Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr index up, mkt assesses FOMC decision

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies traded lower against the dollar Friday as the dollar index continued to strengthen as market participants assessed the US Federal Reserve's rate cut decision and comments by Federal Chair Jerome Powell. Though Fed officials guided for the rate to be at 3.50-3.75% by the end of this year, the committee hinted at a less-aggressive rate outlook and little urgency to lower the benchmark rates going ahead. 

 

The dollar index continued its uptick as the Fed reduced the key policy rates by only 25 basis points, as expected and there was no higher rate cut despite US President Donald Trump's calls for a "big cut."

 

Further, the initial jobless claims for the week ended Saturday also supported the dollar as the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment fell, paring the previous week's rise. The initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Saturday. In the previous week, claims had soared to 264,000, a high last seen in October 2021.

 

At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.34, against 97.36 Thursday and up from 97.02 Wednesday. The index rebounded on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since 2022. 

 

Due to gains in the dollar index, the South Korean won fell 0.4% against the greenback while the Philippine peso and the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.3% against the greenback. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.1%. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan traded steady against the dollar whereas the Thai baht rose 0.1%.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Down on importers' dollar purchases, rise in dollar index

 

	AT 0914 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.1925	88.2125	88.1800	88.2200	88.1275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was down against the dollar Friday as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers and as the dollar index strengthened, dealers said. "Importers' demand is persistent. Moreover, traders are also going long as many had expected the Fed (US Federal Reserve) to go for a 50 bps (basis points) cut, and post FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), the dollar is also back on a strong foot," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee came under pressure as banks rushed to purchase dollars for importers, who feared further depreciation of the rupee in the coming weeks due to strengthening of the dollar and as uncertainty about an India-US bilateral trade deal lingers, dealers said. 

 

The US currency pared its losses from an over three-year low as the FOMC, after lowering the federal funds futures target range to 4.00-4.25%, hinted at a less aggressive easing cycle and signalled little urgency to lower the benchmark borrowing rates further. Data released Thursday also supported the dollar as investors' fears of a slowing US labour market diminished ith a fall in initial jobless claims for the latest week. 

 

Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended Saturday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment fell, against the previous week's rise. Unemployment benefits fell 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 claims for the latest week. In the prior week, unemployment claims had jumped to a near four-year high of 264,000. 

 

At 0924 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.34, against 97.36 Thursday and 97.02 Wednesday. The index began rebounding on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since 2022. 

 

During the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.10 and 88.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg key technical support for the rupee at 88.30 a dollar.  (Gowri Lakshmi)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 19

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.40	88.10
Private-sector bank	88.30	87.90
Private-sector bank	88.40	88.10
Private-sector bank	88.40	88.10
Foreign Bank	88.50	88.05
Brokerage firm	88.45	88.15
Brokerage firm	88.45	87.95
Brokerage firm	88.30	88.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha and Gowri Lakshmi)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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