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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of copper on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the London Metal Exchange fell on Tuesday as traders booked profits after prices rose to 16-month highs in the previous session, analysts said. Market participants are now waiting for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday, when the central bank is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points.

The CME's Fedwatch tool shows traders fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, with over 3% expecting a jumbo 50-bps cut. Traders expect 75 bps of cuts for the rest of 2025 as recent economic data from the US showed softness in the labour market. If the FOMC does cut rates this week, it would be the first since December. Traders will also closely track the FOMC's projections or 'dot plot'.

The fall in COPPER prices was limited by a weak dollar. At 1713 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was at 97.07, down 0.3% from the previous close. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities such as copper cheaper for those holding other currencies, increasing demand. "Despite the pullback, copper remains up 2.3% this week, supported by a weaker US dollar ahead of an expected Fed 25-bps rate cut on Sep 17 (Wednesday)," Kotak Securities said in a report.

Copper prices on the domestic exchange had risen to a 16-month high of INR 921.50 per kilogram in the previous session due to expectations of a rate cut by the Fed and concerns about supply. LME copper prices also rose to a 15-month high Monday and are currently at $10,153.75 per tonne. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, suspended operations after a large flow of wet material blocked access to parts of the underground mine, restricting evacuation routes for workers. Freeport-McMoran has confirmed that its Grasberg Mine will remain closed as rescue operations continue. 

"Chile, the world's top producer, forecasts output growth this year and next, targeting a record 6 million tonnes by 2027, even as disruptions persist at Codelco and Teck Resources mines. Tight supply concerns linger, with LME inventories about 40% below their five-year average and Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine remaining shut," the brokerage said.

At 1720 IST, on the MCX, the September futures contract of:
-–ALUMINIUM was at INR 260.50 a kg, up 0.2%
–-Copper was at INR 919.15 a kg, down 0.2%
–-LEAD was steady at INR 183.30 a kg
–-ZINC was at INR 283.20 a kg, up 0.1%

The October futures contract of NICKEL was at INR 1,346.00 a kg, down 0.5%

Trading levels for the day on the MCX:
--Aluminium contract seen at INR 256.60-INR 263.30
--Copper contract seen at INR 907.60-INR 928.60
--Lead contract seen at INR 181.40-INR 185.10
--Zinc contract seen at INR 277.70-INR 288.10
--Nickel contract seen at INR 1,324.90-INR 1,371.10

End

US$1 = INR 88.05

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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