More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation outlook is currently in "La Nina Watch", which suggests that La Nina conditions are likely to develop during Oct-Dec, it said in its monthly report on climate outlook for Oct-Mar. Short-lived La Nina conditions are expected to prevail in the last three months of calendar year 2025, before neutral El Nino Southern-Oscillation conditions return, the climate centre said.

Chances of a La Nina event stand at 66.7% during Oct-Dec, while chances of El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions increase to 53.7% for the rest of the forecast period, the centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.79 degrees Celsius in October, before dipping further slightly and climbing back to 0.0 degrees Celsius in March. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

There is an "enhanced" probability of above-normal rainfall in India from October to December, the climate centre said. The centre has also forecast a strong probability of above-normal temperatures for the eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, while near normal temperatures are expected in the western tropical Indian Ocean from October to December.

Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal at 109% of the long-period average over most parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department said in its outlook for the last month of the southwest monsoon season.

Negative sea surface temperature anomalies are expected along the equator from October to December, with further weakening anticipated for the rest of the forecast period, the climate centre said. A negative anomaly refers to cooler-than-average temperatures on the ocean's surface and a positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature is warmer than the reference value.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.