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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025                                          Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Commodity Alert: Bursa CPO down on rise in output, decline in exports

 
MUMBAI--0830 IST—Futures contracts of crude palm oil fell on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in early Asian trade Tuesday on the back of rising output. August inventory rose to a 20-month high of 2.2 million tonnes, the Malaysian Palm Oil board reported Wednesday.

Additionally, Malaysia's shipments to India, the world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, slipped during the same month, which further weighed on the prices. "Malaysia's exports could also be flattish or slightly decline on month this month," Dow Jones quoted Lester Siew, UOB Kay Hian analyst, as saying in a note.

However, the losses were limited due to gains in crude oil prices on the NYMEX and soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. Crude palm oil takes cues from crude oil prices as the former is used in biodiesel mixes. Prices of crude palm oil and soyoil usually move in tandem as both are used in edible oil blending. At 0830 IST, the most-active November contract of crude palm oil was down 0.2% at 4,4486 ringgits (INR 94,134.18) per tonne. (Devanshi Verma) 

Commodity Alert: Japan rubber up on persisting supply concerns

 
MUMBAI--0755 IST--Futures contracts of natural rubber on Japan's Osaka exchange rose Tuesday, tracking gains in contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The rise in prices was also because of persistent supply concerns in top producer Thailand. Thailand's meteorological agency has cautioned of heavy rains that may cause flash floods and overflows till Friday.

Further, rubber prices rose, tracking gains in crude oil prices on NYMEX. Natural rubber prices take cues from those of crude oil as the latter is used to make synthetic rubber. At 0754 IST, the most-active November contract of natural rubber on the Japanese bourse was up 3.2 yen at 319.5 yen (INR 191.36) per kg. (Devanshi Verma)

Commodity Alert: COMEX gold prices flat ahead of FOMC meet outcome

 
MUMBAI--0755 IST--Gold futures on COMEX were largely flat in early Asian trade Tuesday ahead of the outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting, due Wednesday. Fed Fund futures traders are now pricing in a 95.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Fed, with a 4.1% probability of a 50-bps cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of non-interest-yielding precious metals.

At 0743 IST, the most-active December gold contract was flat at $3,718.5 per ounce. Gold prices also moved little after hitting a fresh record high of $3,728.4 per ounce earlier in the day. Prices had surged since Monday on the back of a soft dollar, lower US treasury yields, and safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions. "Given expectations of a Fed rate cut and continuing geopolitical tensions, gold has settled into a high-level consolidation," Dow Jones quoted Pepperstone's Dilin Wu, a research strategist, as saying in an email. 

"We believe that the Fed will prioritise addressing labour market weaknesses over the firm inflation print in the upcoming FOMC meet. Taking cues from the sluggish labour market and the PPI (producer price index) reading, bond yields have already softened 25 basis point cut, building in rate cut expectations. We expect two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, starting with a 25 bps rate cut in September," Mint quoted JM Financial Services. (Devanshi Verma)

Commodity Alert: LME copper down on firm dollar, possible profit-booking

 
NEW DELHI--0730 IST--Futures contracts of copper on the London Metal Exchange fell in early Asian trade Tuesday due to a firm dollar. A strong greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities less appealing for other currency buyers, denting demand. 

The fall in copper prices was also because of possible profit-booking after prices rose to a 15-month high in the previous session as the US and China arrived at a deal on TikTok. On Monday, the three-month contract hit $10,192.50 per tonne, the highest since Jun. 4, 2024.

On Monday, the US and China reached a framework agreement regarding short-video app TikTok to US-controlled ownership in a rare breakthrough in months-long talks. The deal raised hopes of a trade deal between the two nations. China is the top consumer of industrial metals, including copper. "There's been a focus on the trade talks because part of the economic weakness in China has been driven by the tariffs," Reuters quoted Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

For further cues, traders will focus on the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting outcome on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 95.9% of the traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut and 4.1% anticipate a 50-basis-point rate cut. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which leads to higher economic growth and demand for base metals such as copper. 

At 0730 IST, the three-month copper contract on the LME was at $10,150.00 per tonne, down 0.3% from the previous close. (Afra Abubacker)

Commodity Alert: NYMEX crude oil up as Russia's top oil refinery halts ops

 
NEW DELHI--0708 IST--Futures contracts of crude oil on the NYMEX rose in early Asian trade Tuesday amid concerns about supply disruptions. Russia's Kirishinefteorgsintez plant, one of the largest oil refineries in the country, has halted processing following a Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend, Reuters quoted two industry sources as saying Monday. The unit accounts for almost 40% of the plant's total processing capacity of some 20 million tonnes per year, or 400,000 barrels per day, Reuters reported.

Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure in an attempt to dent Moscow's war capability, as peace talks between the two nations have stalled. Heightened fears about supply disruptions from Russia, a key producer accounting for over 10% of global oil output, are supporting oil prices, the agency quoted Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst, as saying in a note. 

On Monday, the Israeli military launched a ground offensive to occupy Gaza City, adding to supply-side risks from West Asia. Last week, Israel had launched an airstrike against Hamas leaders in Qatar.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the US would not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to halt China's purchases of Russian oil unless European countries hit China and India with steep duties of their own. "We expect the Europeans to do their share now, and we are not moving forward without the Europeans," Reuters quoted Bessent as saying. At 0647 IST, the most-active October contract of crude oil on NYMEX was up 0.3% at $63.47 per barrel. (Afra Abubacker)

US$1 = INR 88.21

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

BMD: Bursa Malaysia Derivatives

CBOT: Chicago Board of Trade
CFTC: Commodity Futures Trading Commission
CME: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
COMEX: Commodity division of New York Mercantile Exchange
DME: Dubai Mercantile Exchange
EIA: Energy Information Administration
ICE: Intercontinental Exchange
ICEX: Indian Commodity Exchange
IEA: International Energy Agency
LME: London Metal Exchange
MCX: Multi Commodity Exchange of India
NBOT: National Board of Trade
NCDEX: National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange
NYMEX: New York Mercantile Exchange
OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
SEBI: Securities and Exchange Board of India
TOCOM: Tokyo Commodity Exchange
USDA: US Department of Agriculture

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