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Informist, Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX edged lower Monday as traders booked profits after a sharp rise in prices last week, analysts said. Market sentiment was also hurt as traders refrained from placing big bets ahead of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where it is widely expected to lower interest rates, they said.

At 1728 IST, the most-active December GOLD contract on the COMEX was 0.1% lower at $3,681.4 per ounce. The most-active October gold contract on the MCX was down 0.3% at INR 109,091 per 10 grams.

The CME's Fedwatch tool shows traders fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, and over 3% of them expect a jumbo 50-bps cut. Traders expect 75 bps of cuts for the rest of 2025 as recent economic data from the US showed softness in the labour market. If the FOMC does cut rates this week, it would be the first since December. Traders will also closely track the FOMC's economic projections or 'dot plot'.

"Political developments also drew attention, as the Trump administration renewed its appeal to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the central bank's independence. At the same time, global markets are closely monitoring US–China trade negotiations in Madrid, which began Sunday, for potential signals on trade relations and broader risk sentimentm," Kotak Securities said in a report.

Market participants are now waiting for US retail sales and industrial production data on Tuesday, which could provide further clarity on the economy's resilience and the central bank's scope for additional easing, analysts said.

Silver contracts also traded in the red, tracking losses in gold. At 1741 IST, the most-active December silver contract on the MCX was 0.4% lower at INR 128,329 per kg. The same-month contract on COMEX was down 0.3% at $42.69 per ounce.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 107,775–INR 110,377 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,590.7–$3,698.2 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 125,289-INR 131,511 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $41.15-$43.26 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 88.21

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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