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Informist, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimate for 2025-26 global wheat and rice supply in its monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates report released Friday. The department has increased its estimate for wheat supply due to higher production in major exporting countries and that for rice on the back of larger opening stocks.

Supplies of wheat are projected to rise 9 million tonnes to 1,078.6 million tonnes in 2025-26 on higher production from several major exporting countries. Production of wheat in Australia was raised by 3.5 million tonnes to 34.5 million on widespread favourable conditions to date, the department said. Wheat output in the European Union was increased by 1.9 million tonnes to 140.1 million, based on harvest results and government data.

"Russia has raised (output by) 1.5 million tonnes to 85 million tonnes on increases for both winter and spring wheat," the department said. Production is also seen higher in Canada, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan by smaller magnitudes.

The department has also increased its estimate for global wheat consumption for 2025-26 by 5 million tonnes to 814.5 million tonnes, largely due to higher feed and residual use for the European Union, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. It sees world trade at 214.7 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes from the earlier estimate, supported by higher exports from Australia and the US. The department raised 2025-26 global ending stocks by 4 million tonnes to 264.1 million.

For India, the department has maintained its wheat production estimate at 117.5 million tonnes in 2025-26. Its forecast for domestic consumption is unchanged at 112.5 million tonnes, and the ending stock is also steady at 17 million tonnes.

RICE

Despite lower estimates for rice production in 2025-26, supply of the staple grain has been increased this month on the back of higher opening stocks. The global outlook for rice output in 2025–26 is estimated at 541.07 million tonnes, down from the previous estimate of 541.46 million tonnes. The beginning stocks for the year are seen at 188.38 million tonnes in September, up from its August estimate of 187.22 million tonnes.

The department has kept its forecast for rice trade in 2025-26 nearly unchanged at 62.15 million tonnes "with larger exports from Burma offset by decreases from Pakistan and several other countries." Global rice consumption is raised slightly by 210,000 tonnes to 542.18 million tonnes due to higher production in India. Ending stocks for the year are seen at 187.27 million tonnes, up from 186.70 million tonnes in August due to increases for Pakistan and US.

For India, the department has retained its estimates for rice production at 151 million tonnes, but consumption is raised to 127.00 million tonnes from 126.50 million tonnes. It expects rice exports from the country at 25 million tonnes and ending stocks at 45.5 million tonnes for 2025-26, both unchanged from the previous month's estimate.  End

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Nishant Maher

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