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Informist, Friday, Sept. 12, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX rose Friday, after two days of marginal losses, as US inflation data cemented expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Open Market Committee next week. Market sentiment was also lifted as safe-haven appeal of the precious metals remain firm amid increasing geopolitical tensions.

The CME's Fedwatch tool shows traders fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut by the Fed next week. Some market participants say there are chances that the Fed may take a more aggressive stance and lower rates by 50 bps. Traders also expect 75 bps cuts during the rest of the year. "Softer US data, steady inflation, weaker producer prices, and jobless claims at a four-year high, added to the case for monetary easing, with markets weighing the chance of a deeper cut beyond the expected 25 bps," Kotak Securities said in a report.

At 1703 IST, the most-active December GOLD contract on the COMEX was 0.4% higher at $3,688.2 per ounce. The most-active October gold contract on the MCX was up 0.4% at INR 109,371 per 10 grams.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the US core consumer price index, rose 0.4% in August, and excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% from July, along expectations. While headline CPI inflation was 2.9% during the month, higher than the Fed's 2% target, it showed inflation was not spinning out of control. Further, initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 6 jumped to the highest in almost four years, to 263,000, against a Wall Street Journal estimate of 235,000. The data continued to back the narrative of a slowdown in the labour market.

Meanwhile, Commerzbank has raised its price forecast for gold to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 from its earlier projection of $3,600 per ounce as it expects the US Fed to lower interest rates by a total of 200 basis points by the end of next year. "This is because the key interest rate would then be even slightly lower than the market is currently pricing in," it said.

SILVER prices on the domestic exchange rose to a record high earlier in the day, tracking gains on COMEX, because of rate cut expectations. Silver prices on COMEX crossed the $43 per ounce level for the first time since September 2011. At 1720 IST, the most-active December silver contract on the MCX was 1.5% higher at INR 128,899 per kg. The same-month contract on COMEX was up 1.5% at $42.79 per ounce.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 108,014–INR 110,906 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,590.7–$3,709.6 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 125,840-INR 132,214 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $41.07-$43.45 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 88.27

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Nishant Maher

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