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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and COMEX hit fresh all-time highs Tuesday to extending the yellow metal's record-breaking rally because of rising expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year. Market participants are now eyeing US inflation data due Thursday to gauge the quantum of rate cuts likely this year. 

At 1715 IST, the most-active December GOLD contract on COMEX was 0.4% higher at $3,691.0 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $3,698.9 per ounce earlier in the day. The most-active October gold contract on the MCX was up 0.7% at INR 109,305 per 10 grams, after rising to an all-time high of INR 109,500 per 10 grams.

"The metal gained 2.5% over the past two sessions after Friday's weak US payrolls report led traders to price in at least two rate cuts, including a widely anticipated quarter-point reduction at next week's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting," Kotak Securities said in a report.

Disappointing recent economic data from the US and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium last month have raised expectations of a rate cut in September, triggering the rally in gold where prices are hitting record highs almost every other day. The non-farm payrolls data released Friday showed the US only added 22,000 jobs in August, well below the consensus estimate of 75,000 job additions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.2% in July.

"The situation on the labor market has thus deteriorated significantly within a short period of time. A 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week is now fully priced in," Thu Lan Nguyen, head of foreign exchange and commodity research at Commerzbank, said in a report. "Some even see the possibility of a larger move," Nguyen said.

Market sentiment could be dampened significantly if US inflation data show stronger-than-expected rise in prices, Nguyen added. "...the inflation figures have great potential for a sharp market correction if they show a significantly stronger price surge. If, on the other hand, they turn out to be surprisingly weak, the market is likely to bet more heavily on a 50-basis-point interest rate hike, pushing gold further upward."

SILVER contracts were steady on the MCX but fell on COMEX. Domestic silver prices have also surged recently and hit multiple record highs amid a weak rupee and rate-cut expectations. On COMEX, silver prices are trading close to 14-year-highs. At 1731 IST, the most-active December silver contract on the MCX was steady at INR 125,616 per kg. The same-month contract on COMEX was down 0.2% at $41.81 per ounce.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 107,473–INR 111,073 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,586.1–$3,721.6 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 122,814-INR 128,904 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $40.23-$42.40 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 88.10

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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