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Informist, Monday, Sept. 8, 2025

By Reshma Ravi

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India hit a fresh record high Monday, tracking a rise in COMEX gold contracts due to a weaker dollar. A weak US jobs data, which bolstered expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this month, increased safe-haven demand due to trade uncertainties. Concerns over US Fed's independence and lingering geopolitical tensions also lifted market sentiment, analysts said.

At 1728 IST, the most-active October GOLD contract on the MCX was up 0.4% at INR 108,116 per 10 grams, after touching a record high of INR 108,175 per 10 grams. The most-active December gold contract on the COMEX was steady at $3,654.4 per ounce. Gold prices on COMEX had risen to a new record high of $3,662.5 per ounce earlier in the day.

"Non-farm payrolls rose by only 22,000 in August, well below expectations of 75,000. July's job gains were revised slightly higher to 79,000, but June's figures were adjusted significantly down, showing a net loss of 13,000 jobs after a prior downward revision of 27,000. These changes suggest the labour market has been softer than initially reported over the summer," Kaynat Chainwala, assistant vice president, commodity research at Kotak Securities, said in a note.

The data showed US jobs growth weakened sharply in August and the unemployment rate increased to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%, confirming that labour market conditions were softening and sealing the case for a Fed rate cut next week, SMC Research said in a report. Currently, traders see a 90.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, higher than 86.4% last week, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Lower rates increase the appeal of the non-interest yielding precious metal.

At 1737 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.3% at 97.66. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities such as gold less expensive for those holding other currencies, hence aiding demand.

Market participants are now waiting for US Producer Price Index data due Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index Thursday for further cues.

SILVER contracts also hit a record high on MCX, tracking gains in gold. At 1731 IST, the most-active December silver contract on the MCX was up 0.7% at INR 125,525 per kg, after touching a record high of INR 126,400 per kg earlier in the day. The same-month contract on COMEX was up 0.7% at $41.84 per ounce.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 106,269–INR 109,731 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,625.0–$3,700.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 121,988-INR 128,766 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $41.40-$42.35 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 88.26

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Nishant Maher

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