Informist, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025

By Pallavi Singhal

NEW DELHI – India's production of tur is likely to fall sharply to below 3 million tonnes in the 2025-26 crop year (Jul-Jun), compared to the 2024-25 production estimate of 3.56 million tonnes, with the final outcome hinging on September rains, which are expected to be heavy, according to industry experts and traders.

Agricultural economist Deepak Pareek estimates tur production at 2.7 million tonnes, down from 3.1 million tonnes the trade had estimated for 2024-25 crop year, as excessive rainfall and waterlogging in key growing regions have damaged the crop. "It is too late for improvement as tur is a long and painful 180-day crop. The crop could've been re-sown had it happened in July. With IMD (India Meteorological Department) predicting above-normal showers for September, I don't see the scenario improving," he said. Waterlogging in Karnataka's Bidar and Kalaburagi, and Maharashtra's Yavatmal, Amravati, and Akola, as well as in parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bundelkhand, is leading to stunted crop growth and pest infestation, which will bring both yield and production down, he said.

Tur is India's most important kharif pulse, accounting for about 47% of the total kharif pulses production and nearly a third of the sown area. Maharashtra contributes 29% of the country's tur output, followed by Karnataka at 28% and Uttar Pradesh at 8%.

Parts of Karnataka have seen extremely heavy rainfall this season, with North Interior Karnataka having received 46?ove normal rainfall so far and South Karnataka receiving 5?ove normal rains. Meanwhile, Vidarbha and Marathwada have received 6% and 10?ove normal rainfall, respectively. With the India Meteorological Department predicting above normal showers in September at 109% of the long-period average over most parts of the country, the outlook becomes even more grim.

In the Gulbarga region, which is part of North Karnataka and which alone makes up nearly 40% of Karnataka's tur output, as much as 25% of crops are damaged due to persistent waterlogging and delayed sowing, according to regional traders and market experts. Akola and wider Vidarbha are so far less severely affected, though traders advise caution, stating that even a sporadic 3–4 day spell of continuous rain can cause plantations to rot and bring down final yields.

Sanjay Gupta, managing director and chief executive officer of National Commodities Management Services Ltd., said excessive rains are not only hitting yields but also deteriorating crop quality. "We are seeing discolouration and pest damage. In Karnataka, fertiliser shortage, coupled with heavy rains, could lead to a 15–20% yield loss, while value losses due to poor quality may be as high as 50%," he said.

Traders in Maharashtra, however, reported a more mixed picture. Ankit Kedia, a local trader from Akola, said crops in Vidarbha are holding up well, though waterlogging remains a risk. In Gulbarga, however, sowing is lower than last year, and as much as 25% of the crop has been damaged by rains, he said.

Global trading houses are also turning cautious. G.K. Sood, chairman of MEIR Commodities India Ltd., warned that about 15% of the tur-growing area has suffered heavy rains or flooding. "At this stage, output could fall to 3 million tonnes or even lower. The crop, still in its vegetative phase, is highly vulnerable to stagnant water and heavy downpours," Sood said, adding that September's rainfall pattern will determine the final harvest.

Industry bodies are also expecting moderate losses, estimating a 10?cline in the total tur production in the 2025-26 season. Satish Upadhyay, secretary of the India Pulses and Grains Association, estimates tur production to dip by 5–10%, noting that the crop has not yet reached flowering stage yet but rainfall damage is evident in low-lying regions of Karnataka and Maharashtra.

However, any fall in output is unlikely to impact prices heavily, says Pareek. Continued imports of yellow pea and tur till Mar. 31, 2026, along with subdued consumption after two years of high pulse prices, may prevent a sharp spike in rates, he said, adding that new arrivals in January will further stabilise the market. End

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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