More Stories

Informist, Monday, Sept. 1, 2025

 

By Gowri Lakshmi

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended unchanged against the dollar after hitting a lifetime low Monday as active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India offset dollar purchases by importers, dealers said. The volume in the currency market was lower than usual as financial markets in the US were shut for Labor Day. Dealers said the "dull volume" in the market aggravated the rupee's fall.

 

The rupee fell to a record low of 88.3300 a dollar before settling at its record closing low of 88.1950. The domestic currency moved in a range of 21 paise during the day. "Pretty peaceful day since US is shut. Importers were there and RBI was actively protecting," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Other Asian currencies were mixed as investors continued to assess the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs after a US appeals court Friday ruled most of the tariffs "illegal". Taiwan's dollar was the worst hit while the Indonesian rupiah was the biggest gainer, recovering from Friday's slump of over 1%.

 

The rupee started the day slightly lower at 88.2400 against the dollar as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, who were wary of a sharp depreciation of the rupee in the near term, dealers said. Importers have been in "panic mode" after the rupee breached the psychologically crucial level of 88-per-dollar Friday, they said. "Panic is still there, but they (importers) are not aggressive, but bids are there in good quantum," another dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

A slight dip in the dollar index brought some relief for the rupee, dealers said. Data released Friday showed the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was up 0.2% in July, against an unrevised 0.3% increase in June and matching the estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the US Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, increased 0.3% last month.

 

Fed funds futures traders now see an 87.6% probability of the US Federal Open Market Committee lowering interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting Sept. 16-17, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.61, against 97.86 Friday and 97.90 Thursday. The dollar index fell to a five-week low of 97.54 earlier in the day.

 

Persistent dollar demand from importers pushed the rupee to the lifetime low, dealers said. However, dollar sales by a few exporters limited the rupee's fall, they added. They also said active intervention by the RBI prevented the rupee falling further. The RBI likely sold dollars at and below the 88.30-a-dollar level, according to dealers.

 

Seeing that the rupee's fall was limited, a few exporters sold dollars to take advantage of the relatively higher dollar/rupee, dealers said. The central bank also intervened actively during the final hour of the day's trade, taking the rupee to an intraday high of 88.1200. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.1950	88.2400	88.1200	88.3300	88.1950
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	194.24	193.19	194.24	193.19	192.58

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended slightly higher Monday as the rupee's fall to a record low prompted importers to buy dollars for forward delivery in the fear that the Indian currency may fall more, dealers said. The rupee depreciated 0.7% against the dollar last month.

 

Dealers said forward premiums did not take many cues from the higher-than-expected India GDP growth print, released after market hours Friday, as concerns around the impact of US tariffs on India's economic growth continue to linger. India's GDP growth rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the June quarter. Growth was much higher than the 6.7% projected by economists in an Informist Poll. It was also 130 basis points higher than the RBI's forecast of 6.5%.

 

Market participants now await a slew of key economic data due this week in the US, including the July job openings data Wednesday and the non-farm payrolls report Friday, for more cues on the Fed's interest-rate trajectory. 

 

Monday, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee premium ended at 2.20%, against its previous close of 2.19%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 194.24 paise, against 192.58 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

Tuesday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the dollar index and crude oil prices, dealers said. Investors continue to assess the impact of US tariffs on the Indian economy and will look out for any tariff-related news or geopolitical developments, dealers said. They expect the rupee to remain under pressure for the near term as importers are likely to continue purchasing dollars, fearing a sharper decline in the value of the Indian currency. 

 

A dealer at a private-sector bank said "88.30 is a key level where the RBI is heavily guarding the rupee". Other dealers said exporters are likely to sell dollars at or below 88.27 and the central bank will continue to intervene if the rupee were to fall below 88.30 a dollar.

 

During the day, the rupee may move in a range of 88.00 and 88.40 against the dollar. Dealers peg key technical support for the rupee at 88.35 a dollar. 

---

India Rupee - World FX: Euro up 0.3% as PMI rises, dollar index at 5-week low

 

	AT 1540 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3528	1.3541	1.3296	1.3499
EUR/USD	1.1720	1.1737	1.1564	1.1684
NZD/USD	0.5911	0.5915	0.5890	0.5888
AUD/USD	0.6558	0.6560	0.6535	0.6537
USD/JPY	147.0880	147.3810	146.7880	147.0490
USD/CAD	1.3738	1.3799	1.3733	1.3746
EUR/JPY	172.3980	172.5100	171.8052	171.8464
CHF/USD	1.2507	1.2524	1.2480	1.2485
EUR/CHF	0.9369	0.9376	0.9357	0.9353

 

MUMBAI – The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar as the Euro zone manufacturing activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022 due to a jump in domestic demand and output, increasing optimism around future production, a survey showed. The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July, surpassing the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction. It was also higher than a preliminary estimate of 50.5.

 

The Japanese yen rose 0.1% against the dollar as data released Monday showed the S&P Global Japan manufacturing PMI was at 49.7 in August, showing an improvement from 48.9 in July. However, Japan's factory activity remained in the contractionary zone in August. The figure has stayed below the 50.0 threshold, which indicates contraction, for two consecutive months.

 

The dollar index weakened to a five-week low on growing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this month. Data released on Friday showed US personal consumption expenditures price index was at 0.2% in July, against an unrevised 0.3% increase in June and matching the estimate of economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months to July, PCE inflation increased 2.6?ter climbing 2.6% in June. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PCE Price Index increased 0.3% last month. That followed a 0.3% rise in core inflation in June. The in-line with expectations data print kept hopes of a September interest rate cut in the US alive.

 

Fed funds futures traders now see an 89.7% probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 1540 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.65, against 97.86 Friday and 97.90 Thursday.

 

The pound sterling rose 0.2% against a weakening dollar Monday due to renewed concerns over the UK's fiscal outlook. Market participants will closely watch the questioning of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members by the Treasury Committee later this week, looking for guidance on future rate cuts or possible changes to the central bank's quantitative tightening programme.

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.3% against the greenback as data released Monday showed the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, beating analysts' expectations of 49.7 in a Reuters poll. Any change in the Chinese economy directly impacts the Australian currency due to their close bilateral trade relations. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% against the dollar. 

 

Market participants now await key US economic data this week, including manufacturing PMI and Global Manufacturing PMI due Tuesday, July job openings data on Wednesday, and employment report due Friday.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Forward premium up as importers hedge on fear rupee may fall more

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.2525	88.2400	88.1800	88.3300	88.1950
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	194.24	193.19	194.24	193.19	192.58

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium rose slightly Monday as the rupee's fall to a record low prompted importers to buy dollars for forward delivery, in fear that the Indian currency may fall more, dealers said. The rupee fell to a lifetime low of 88.3300 a dollar on Monday.  

 

"We are seeing some bids because of spot movement. Rupee has moved past 88, so people are a bit wary now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If rupee falls more, the long (forward) tenure can go to 2.25%." The rupee depreciated 0.7% against the dollar last month.  

 

Dealers said forward premiums did not take many cues from the higher-than-expected India GDP growth print, released post market hours Friday, as concerns around the impact of US tariffs on India's economic growth continue to linger. India's GDP growth rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the June quarter. Growth was much higher than the 6.7% projected by economists in an Informis poll. It was also 130 basis points higher than the RBI's forecast of 6.5%.

 

Meanwhile, volumes in the market were lacklustre as the US financial markets were closed on account of Labours Day, dealers said. Market participants now await a slew of key economic data due this week in the US, including the July job openings data on Wednesday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, for more cues on the Fed's rate cut trajectory. "I think forwards will be rangebound till the time, there are more insights from the US data this week," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. 

 

Dealers see 2.25% as a key technical support for the one-year forward premium in the near-term. At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee premium was 2.20%, against its previous close of 2.19%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 194.24 paise, against 192.58 paise Friday.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Hits record low as importers buy dollars; RBI likely limits fall

 

	AT 1320 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.2850	88.2400	88.1800	88.3300	88.1950

 

MUMBAI - The rupee fell to a record low against the dollar Monday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, losses in the Indian currency were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales in the spot market, they said. The rupee fell to a lifetime low of 88.3300 a dollar.

 

"There is a lot of demand (for dollars) but levels are largely intact, because some support is coming from the supply (of dollars) side," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. Most dealers said the RBI likely intervened in the market at around 88.30 a dollar to prevent sharp losses in the Indian unit. However, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. Importers bought the greenback, fearing a further depreciation in the local unit, which weighed on the rupee, according to dealers. The rupee depreciated 0.7% last month. 

 

Meanwhile, volumes in the currency market were lower than usual as the US financial markets are closed on Monday on account of Labour Day, dealers said. "As the US markets are closed today (Monday), (most of) the demand (for dollars) is likely to come tomorrow (Tuesday)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.00-88.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg key technical support for the rupee at 88.50 a dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 1

 

NEW DELHI – At 1105 IST, the rupee was at 88.2700 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.2400 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.1950. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	88.50	88.30	87.90	87.70
Brokerage firm	88.50	88.30	87.80	87.50
Brokerage firm	88.50	88.40	87.80	87.60

 

(Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Falls slightly as importers buy dollars; RBI's action eyed

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.2400	88.2400	88.1800	88.2550	88.1950

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Monday as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the Indian unit going ahead, dealers said. Bets in favour of further depreciation in the Indian currency have increased after it fell past the psychologically-crucial 88-per-dollar mark and hit a lifetime low of 88.3100 a dollar Friday, they said. 

 

"There is buying (of dollars) in the market. I am expecting lots of buying to come in during the day. Maybe not too much panic, but the pressure will be there," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Market participants are keeping a close watch on the Reserve Bank of India's intervention around current levels. Most expect the central bank to sell dollars around 88.30 to prevent the rupee from hitting a fresh record low. "On Friday, RBI was seen bit aggressive around 88.30, but nevertheless, they did not even try to bring rupee above 88 at close," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "So, even if someone gets 87.85-87.90 levels, it will be a good buying level. Rupee's downside will depend on where RBI will draw the line." 

 

Meanwhile, data released Friday showed US personal consumption expenditures price index was at 0.2% in July, against an unrevised 0.3% increase in June and matching the estimate of economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through July, PCE inflation was 2.6?ter 2.6% in June. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PCE Price Index increased 0.3% last month. That followed a 0.3% rise in core inflation in June. The in-line with expectations data print kept hopes of a September interest rate cut in the US alive. 

 

Fed funds futures traders now see an 87.6% probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.71, against 97.86 Friday and 97.90 Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.90-88.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg key technical support for the rupee at 88.30 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Indonesian rupiah steady after sharp fall Fri

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note on Monday as uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs continued to linger after a US appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Trump's tariffs were illegal. The court allowed the tariffs to remain in place through Oct. 14 to give the Trump administration a chance to file an appeal with the US Supreme Court. However, US trade representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that the Trump administration is continuing its talks with trading partners despite the court ruling. 

 

Meanwhile, data released Friday showed US personal consumption expenditures price inflation was 2.6%, after 2.6% in June. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the PCE price index to rise 2.6% in July. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PCE Price index increased 0.3% last month. That followed a 0.3% rise in core inflation in June. The in-line with expectations data print kept hopes of a September interest rate cut in the US alive. 

 

Fed funds futures traders now see an 87.6% probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 0925 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.70, against 97.86 Friday and 97.90 Thursday.

 

The Indonasian rupiah was steady against the dollar, after the over 1% slump on Friday. The sharp fall was due to dampened risk sentiment among investors amidst the ongoing protests involving thousands of students, workers, and activists against housing allowance for the members of Parliament, that is almost 10 times the Jakarta minimum wage. Indonesia's central bank annnounced Monday that it would make necessary intervention in the currency market to keep the rupiah stable against the greenback.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.1% against the dollar Monday after data released Monday showed South Korea's export growth in August slowed more than markets had anticipated. Exports rose 1.3% on year to $58.40 billion, weaker than a 3.0% rise seen in a Reuters poll, and a 5.8% increase in July. Moreover, South Korea's factory activity weakened for the seventh consecutive month in August, with the Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturers at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July.

 

The Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% against the greenback. The Phillipine peso fell 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Thai baht was steady against the dollar despite political instabilities in the country. Thailand's Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra Friday for an ethics violation.

 

The Chinese yuan traded steady even after data released on Sunday showed China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month in August. The official PMI rose to 49.4 in August versus 49.3 in July, remaining below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and missing a median forecast of 49.5 in a Reuters poll.  (Rati Chaphekar) 

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 1

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.40	88.00
State-owned bank	88.30	87.90
State-owned bank	88.30	87.90
Private-sector bank	88.25	87.90
Private-sector bank	88.30	87.90
Foreign bank	88.50	87.75
Brokerage firm	88.40	88.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.