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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025

 

By J. Navya Sruthi

 

MUMBAI – Torrential showers over the past two weeks have turned the season's total rainfall over southern India to above normal from deficient, and is expected to remain above normal for rest of the southwest monsoon. This, experts and market participants, say will support the ongoing sowing of kharif crops and increase the soil's moisture content, which is key to rabi crops.

 

According to the India Meteorological Department's long-range forecast for August and September, most parts of southern India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, parts of coastal Karnataka and Kerala are expected to see below-normal to normal showers during Aug-Sept.

IMD data shows rainfall over the south Peninsula from Jun. 1 to Aug. 21 was 9% above normal at 542.9 millimetres, which is a huge improvement from 2% below-normal showers in July. The region recorded 3% below-normal showers at 156.7 millimetres in June.

 

Showers over southern India continued to be deficient even in early August. The region received 19% below normal showers at 37.5 millimetres from Jul. 31 to Aug. 6. However, rainfall in the following week was 41% above normal at 66.0 millimetres. Similarly, in the week ended Wednesday, rainfall over the region was 95% above normal at 82.0 millimetres, the weather bureau's data showed.

 

After covering the entire southern India before date, by May 29, monsoon stalled over the region till Jun. 16. Although the southwest monsoon entered into active phase on Jun. 16, rainfall distribution over the country remained uneven. This left most sub-divisions in south Peninsula with deficient rainfall. Rainfall over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Kerala was below normal on Jun. 30 while it was above normal in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. However, rainfall as of Thursday over most states and union territories in south India was above-normal while showers over Kerala and Lakshadweep remain deficient.

 

Srinivas Rao, senior weather officer at the India Meteorological Department's Hyderabad regional centre, said the overall rainfall over Telangana is likely to be above normal for the southwest monsoon season. Although, rainfall was uneven for almost 45 days over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, the recent weather systems over Bay of Bengal have boosted the season's rainfall over the region, he added.

 

Rainfall picked up over southern India on Aug. 13 when a low pressure area formed over the Bay of Bengal. The weather system later moved inland causing extremely heavy rainfall over parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, parts of central India, and a few western states like Maharashtra. The Konkan belt received extremely heavy showers during this time as the westerlies were active due to the weather system.

 

The low pressure area formed on Aug. 13, weakened into a cyclonic circulation later during the week. There was another low pressure area on Aug. 17 over the Bay of Bengal which intensified into a depression over northwest and adjoining Bay of Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts on Monday. Later during the week, it weakened into a well-marked low pressure area and then into a cyclonic circulation.

 

The water levels in reservoirs in southern India have seen a marked increase because of the recent rain. Number of reservoirs with 100% capacity rose to three in south India as of Thursday, from one last week. The water level in the southern region was 44.800 billion cubic metres, which is nearly 82% of the region's total live storage capacity of 45 reservoirs.

 

CROP SITUATION

Despite deficient rainfall over many parts of the southern India, the acreage under kharif crops is higher than last year in most areas. However, there was delay in crop sowing in a few districts. Weather officer Rao said areas that depend entirely on rainfall for agriculture are facing crop loss but there is no crop damage or late sowing in areas dependent on canal irrigation.

 

The area under kharif crops in Telangana was up over 30% on year at 11.87 million acres (1 acre = 0.4 hectares) as of Wednesday. Kharif crop acreage in Andhra Pradesh as of Wednesday was 2.03 million hectares, up from nearly 2.00 million hectares last year. As of Jul. 25, kharif sowing in Karnataka was marginally higher at 6.32 million hectares, compared with nearly 6.30 million hectares a year ago, according to the state agriculture department data.

 

Rahul Chauhan, director at IGrain, said there is 5-10% damage to pulses crops in a few parts of Karnataka but there is no damage seen in paddy, maize, and soybean crops. "Yields of crops will only be impacted if the crop is at flowering stage," he added. The recent rainfall over the southern region and other parts of the country will improve the soil moisture which supports kharif and rabi crops production, Chauhan said.

 

Some isolated villages have reported some crop damage but the overall impact of the recent rains was positive in most parts of south India, G. Chandrashekhar, commodity market expert and policy commentator, said. Commenting on reports about crop damage, he said they were aimed at pushing up prices. "Excess rainfall will never hurt crop but improve soil moisture, but excessive rainfall will hurt crop," he added.  End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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