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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold fell Thursday on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX as markets turned cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium starting Thursday, analysts said. Market sentiment was also hurt by diminishing bets of a rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting, after minutes of the previous meeting indicated that most of the officials consider September too soon to reduce interest rates, they said.

 

At 1637 IST, the most-active December GOLD contract on the COMEX was 0.5% lower at $3,371.2 per ounce. The most-active October gold contract on the MCX was 0.3% lower at INR 99,040 per 10 grams.

 

Minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting indicated that the panel was more concerned about inflation than growth. The two US Federal Reserve Governors--Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller--who voted against the decision to hold rates steady, appeared to be alone in their decision. However, several traders dismissed the minutes saying that they were outdated, since the meeting was held before the release of the poor US jobs report for July. 

 

"Minutes from the Fed's July meeting revealed that officials remain cautious about inflation and the labor market, with most considering it too soon to cut interest rates. Market expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut in September have declined...," said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP commodity research at Kotak Securities, in an emailed-note. The CME's FedWatch tool now shows a 79% chance of a rate cut by the US FOMC in September, down from 82?ay ago and 92% a week ago. Higher interest rates make the non-interest-bearing precious metal less attractive to investors.

 

Meanwhile, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has revised its annual average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,250 per ounce, up from the previous projection of $3,100 per ounce. It expects prices of gold to move between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce and is neutral-to-bullish on the precious metal for the rest of this year.

 

Market participants are also awaiting the US unemployment claims data due Thursday for further cues. SILVER contracts also fell, tracking losses in gold. At 1647 IST, the most-active September silver contract on the MCX was down 0.2% at INR 112,310 per kilogram. The same-month contract on COMEX was down 0.5% at $37.59 per ounce.

 

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 98,600–INR 99,500 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,340.0–$3,410.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 111,400-INR 113,200 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $37.30-$38.10 an ounce

End

 

US$1 = INR 87.27

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

 

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