Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India edged lower Tuesday, despite positive cues from the COMEX, because of a sharp rise in the rupee against the dollar. Market participants are now waiting for the US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will be closely monitored, according to analysts.

At 1723 IST, the most-active December GOLD contract on the COMEX was 0.2% higher at $3,385.3 per ounce. The most-active October gold contract on the MCX was 0.1% lower at INR 99,318 per 10 grams.

"The gold prices remain influenced by mixed macroeconomic signals and shifting global risk sentiment. In the near term, gold prices are expected to be driven by real yields, the dollar, and uncertain monetary policy expectations," Kotak Securities said in a report. "Over the medium term, prospects are supported by potential Fed easing and ongoing geopolitical risks, though persistent inflation could delay rate cuts," it added.

Meanwhile, Ventura Securities expects gold prices to touch $3,600 per ounce this year, mainly because of macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical risks, and sustained investment demand. Gold prices in India can rise up to INR 103,000 per 10 grams and "not beyond that" due to volatility in the rupee against the dollar, said N.S. Ramaswamy, head of commodities and customer relationship management at Ventura Securities, at a webinar Tuesday.

The rupee surged above 87 per dollar Tuesday and ended at a three-week high of 86.9550 against the dollar. When the rupee appreciates against the dollar, prices of gold in the domestic market adjust, where the precious metal is priced in rupees. Market participants will also be monitoring ongoing talks between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

SILVER contracts rose on the COMEX while they fell on the MCX. At 1730 IST, the most-active September silver contract on the MCX was 0.2% lower at INR 113,375 per kg. The same-month contract on the COMEX was up 0.3% at $38.12 per ounce.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 97,994–INR 100,268 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $3,360.0–$3,410.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 111,291-INR 115,239 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $37.60-$38.50 an ounce

End

US$1 = INR 86.95

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

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